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Poconosnow

January 27-28, 2019 | Clipper Winter Storm

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Thank you...so helpful...written just at my level...explained the process and associated impact downstream.

Edited by Domino
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15 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

Okay @UTSwiiniiso I see I was summoned about the Jax rule. I did a bit more research so that I could more properly explain everything to the board. To understand the rule, first we have to understand how cyclogenesis works. As a quick refresher, this is how it works. So you need a temp gradient, also known as a baroclynic zone. From here, what happens is physics begins to take over to convert potential energy into kinetic energy. It does so through the processes associated with the temperature gradient. Therefore what happens is you have a front transverse the region. On this front to the left, or West you have hot air, and to the right - East- you have cool air. As we all know, heat rises and cold air sinks. As this happens the storm begins to orient itself zonally, or from west to east. From here the Coriolis effect takes place and you start to see the spin of a low pressure system. This is the basic form of cyclogenesis.

As the cyclogenesis begins to take shape, you begin to see thunderstorms develop in the warm sector. What this does is to allow for latent heat to be released through the heavy precipitation that accompany thunderstorms. Latent heat is released best through moisture and condensation, therefore it is best released in the lower troposphere. What begins to happen is this latent heat release transfers into the upper atmosphere and allows for Divergence in the upper atmosphere. As a refresher, Divergence is when air evacuates an air column. Because of this, a developing low pressure system can begin to intensify more quickly. Consequently, this allows the original zonal orientation of the low pressure system or in other words the west to east movement, to become more poleward  in motion. In other words, this means that the storm moves more south to North then west to east. Therefore, what this means is that when LP are going out to sea and you begin to observe a plethora of convection in the Jacksonville, Florida region, there's a good chance that this LP is going to bend Northwest instead of going out to sea and ride up the coast. Furthermore, this latent heat release allows for a stronger low pressure system as we already have talked about the Divergence caused Downstream. Therefore, the Jax rule can safely correlate to a stronger and closest system to the coast for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast region.

As a side note, this also helps me understand why I made such an error in my last forecast with the last storm. I use this as an illustration. What happened is the storm began to strengthen more quickly than expected. As the storm strengthened more quickly, it caused more convection in the warm sector. This, in turn, led the west to east orientation of the baroclynic Zone becoming more south to North. This is why you saw the storm reaching for Virginia and the Delmarva region only to quickly scoot over New Jersey, up to Long Island and into the Northeast. The storm strengthened about 150 miles west of Jacksonville Florida. Taking this correlation and moving it West there for allows you to see why the storm went to New Jersey instead of off the Eastern seaboard

Could we then say that the release of latent heat, creates a path guide for the storm to take?

Is that an acceptable understanding?

As it concerns to this storm, the direction that latent heat released from the convection associated with the JAX rule takes would indicate the possible eventual track that this storm would take. Does this need polishing @Uscg ast?

I think we should test that with this storm.

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11 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Could we then say that the release of latent heat, creates a path guide for the storm to take?

Is that an acceptable understanding?

As it concerns to this storm, the direction that latent heat released from the convection associated with the JAX rule takes would indicate the possible eventual track that this storm would take. Does this need polishing @Uscg ast?

I think we should test that with this storm.

The release of latent heat more works to speed up the cyclogenesis, or maturing, of the LP. Therefore, I would. Say it more forces the LP to mature quicker and thereby turn the LP NW. However, I would not say the latent heat release guides the storm so much as it allows the physical processes to speed up which thus allow the LP to follow a different trajectory /path. 

What are your thoughts on this? 

Edited by Uscg ast

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29 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

The release of latent heat more works to speed up the cyclogenesis, or maturing, of the LP. Therefore, I would. Say it more forces the LP to mature quicker and thereby turn the LP NW. However, I would not say the latent heat release guides the storm so much as it allows the physical processes to speed up which thus allow the LP to follow a different trajectory /path. 

So, for this storm, too much latent hear release may be detrimental to a so desired benchmark track, as too much latent heat would speed the maturing of the storm. In other words, the storm would deepen faster and naturally seek a more NW track. An NW track without any blocking mechanism over the Great Lakes would only allow a latent heat-laden storm to track close to the coast and even over land near the coastal plain.

 That could be a possible track scenario for this storm if it gets too fat with latent heat and there´s nothing over the Great Lakes to keep it tracking  NE along the coast.

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18 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

So, for this storm, too much latent hear release may be detrimental to a so desired benchmark track, as too much latent heat would speed the maturing of the storm. In other others, the storm would deepen faster and naturally seek a more NW track. An NW track without any blocking mechanism over the Great Lakes would only allow a latent heat-laden storm to track close to the coast and even over land near the coastal plain.

 That could be a possible track scenario for this storm if it gets too fat with latent heat and there´s nothing over the Great Lakes to keep it tracking  NE along the coast.

There tends to be a limit to what strictly laten theat release can achieve, at least from the case studies I have looked at. Now, if the latent heat release occurs west of Jacksonville, FL or you have a strong phase in the TN Valley region (likely this would lead to a triple phase as for the n/s to drip this low, the PV - polar vortex- would most likely have to be pushing it that far south), then I could see an inside track. 

Edit : there is a limit with latent heat release - from what I have seen - because there is only so much the heights can be pumped in the upper atmosphere. Processes which govern the physics of the atmosphere only allow for so much rise in heights before too much heat is lost and thus contraction occurs. 

Edited by Uscg ast
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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Sorry I have to be that guy, but I Saw this online and got the goosebumps.....any similarities ?

3F6658BD-0C71-4B11-BE0E-FCAA1B610AAD.png

950B1668-9C5B-440F-9C06-2AF2F63A5922.jpeg

You're better than this. 

Well....maybe....

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7 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

There tends to be a limit to what strictly laten theat release can achieve, at least from the case studies I have looked at. Now, if the latent heat release occurs west of Jacksonville, FL or you have a strong phase in the TN Valley region (likely this would lead to a triple phase as for the n/s to drip this low, the PV - polar vortex- would most likely have to be pushing it that far south), then I could see an inside track. 

Edit : there is a limit with latent heat release - from what I have seen - because there is only so much the heights can be pumped in the upper atmosphere. Processes which govern the physics of the atmosphere only allow for so much rise in heights before too much heat is lost and thus contraction occurs. 

Good one there.

Those that really want snow bad along the eastern seaboard, literally the coastal plain, Delmarva, NJ and NYC metro, and Long Island, then should actually want to see models with this storm, avoid a triple phase. It´s nearly impossible, I believe for a triple-phased storm, to track just inside the benchmark. A triple phaser would flood the coastal plain air column with warmth unless there would some kind of a historic blocker or kicker to the west of the storm over the Ohio Valley to keep that bomb at bay tracking NE´ward.

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Sorry I have to be that guy, but I Saw this online and got the goosebumps.....any similarities ?

3F6658BD-0C71-4B11-BE0E-FCAA1B610AAD.png

950B1668-9C5B-440F-9C06-2AF2F63A5922.jpeg

Both have pictures of the continents underneath the pretty colors? And they both have arrows drawn on them. 

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13 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Good one there.

Those that really want snow bad along the eastern seaboard, literally the coastal plain, Delmarva, NJ and NYC metro, and Long Island, then should actually want to see models with this storm, avoid a triple phase. It´s nearly impossible, I believe for a triple-phased storm, to track just inside the benchmark. A triple phaser would flood the coastal plain air column with warmth unless there would some kind of a historic blocker or kicker to the west of the storm over the Ohio Valley to keep that bomb at bay tracking NE´ward.

I tend to agree. 

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Sorry I have to be that guy, but I Saw this online and got the goosebumps.....any similarities ?

3F6658BD-0C71-4B11-BE0E-FCAA1B610AAD.png

950B1668-9C5B-440F-9C06-2AF2F63A5922.jpeg

Oh stop it you........scratches head and starts looking at everything 93

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image.png.2b70a0fcbca7d4d9c283f103bee01e29.png

Hes a little late to the party but welcome

image.png.e623a71d4afca456e6b5a87661178fbb.png

Hell I would even take this solution at this point

Edited by shaulov4

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5 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.png.2b70a0fcbca7d4d9c283f103bee01e29.png

Hes a little late to the party but welcome

image.png.e623a71d4afca456e6b5a87661178fbb.png

Hell I would even take this solution at this point

ill take 1 inch anytime

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This solution would make more sense according to the bsr correlation, as @Poconosnow mention initially Miller A/B Hybrid. 

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Fv3 is wide right this time.  Gfs says what storm ?!? 

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Cmc also wide right 

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9 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Fv3 is wide right this time.  Gfs says what storm ?!? 

GFS has a storm. 🤔

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5 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Sorry I have to be that guy, but I Saw this online and got the goosebumps.....any similarities ?

3F6658BD-0C71-4B11-BE0E-FCAA1B610AAD.png

950B1668-9C5B-440F-9C06-2AF2F63A5922.jpeg

Come on PARD... you know I'm going to ask for the source link.

As for the "similarities"...the trough east of Hawaii is the only true match. 

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UKie left, ECMWF on the right.

Screenshot_20190122-052122.jpg.99865d659aff8c15b3219755bd08b3c2.jpg

EPS with spread, mean looks closer to the UKie to me, but the spread covers both scenarios. Operational ECMWF might be too quick with the southern trof.

372928657_19012800_2200(1).gif.9c54e756ea111fe5f71994dd6d7cca8a.gif

 

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:classic_ninja:

151.track.current.thumb.png.070234bf065c8833313f081b84db58b9.png

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30 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

:classic_ninja:

151.track.current.thumb.png.070234bf065c8833313f081b84db58b9.png

Question.. with that track depicted would that be snow all up and down east coast?  Is it dependant on intensity and size of precip shield once it gets to Delmarva latitude? Just trying to learn here as I never seen quite a southern origin that far south and east but it looks by the untrained eye to be close to the benchmark thank you 

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9 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

Question.. with that track depicted would that be snow all up and down east coast?  Is it dependant on intensity and size of precip shield once it gets to Delmarva latitude? Just trying to learn here as I never seen quite a southern origin that far south and east but it looks by the untrained eye to be close to the benchmark thank you 

What's interesting, is that, as modeled, it begins as a deep, cold core system in the Gulf and transitions with latitude.  Without temp maps it's impossible to say for sure. But it could even be a scenario where the coastal Carolinas get snow, but by the time it reaches my area, warm air is pulled around and parts of Maine get a mixed bag. It's a crazy track and intensity for sure, and will undoubtedly disappear, but it speaks to the envelope of solutions, and what is possible, however, buying operational runs at this lead, and on this pattern is fraught with peril.

151.phase2.thumb.png.a231616cd93b669df4f18e22566ce4e5.png

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3 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

What's interesting, is that, as modeled, it begins as a deep, cold core system in the Gulf and transitions with latitude.  Without temp maps it's impossible to say for sure. But it could even be a scenario where the coastal Carolinas get snow, but by the time it reaches my area, warm air is pulled around and parts of Maine get a mixed bag. It's a crazy track and intensity for sure, and will undoubtedly disappear, but it speaks to the envelope of solutions, and what is possible, however, buying operational runs at this lead, and on this pattern is fraught with peril.

151.phase2.thumb.png.a231616cd93b669df4f18e22566ce4e5.png

Is the trough wide along with the cold keep it further off the coast?

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10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

What's interesting, is that, as modeled, it begins as a deep, cold core system in the Gulf and transitions with latitude.  Without temp maps it's impossible to say for sure. But it could even be a scenario where the coastal Carolinas get snow, but by the time it reaches my area, warm air is pulled around and parts of Maine get a mixed bag. It's a crazy track and intensity for sure, and will undoubtedly disappear, but it speaks to the envelope of solutions, and what is possible, however, buying operational runs at this lead, and on this pattern is fraught with peril.

151.phase2.thumb.png.a231616cd93b669df4f18e22566ce4e5.png

That’s hard to imagine with a 970ish low just inside the benchmark.  I’d place multiple bets on an all snow scenario 

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