Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
Sign in to follow this  
shaulov4

January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

So this is definitely trending “interesting for me.   As long as that clipper dives we could be in good shape. The control run really bombs this out 

CF966528-F4EA-424C-B664-CB665DE2A1E9.png

B54FAE38-B73A-46F4-A150-5B0406BF7B48.png

2E7C0AF2-DE37-4553-A97E-396265127BD0.png

26EEF628-B43F-4ED1-850E-0EF7E8BAE385.png

C4F7E7A4-29C8-4D73-A73A-F63C0F258636.png

4C4FC50E-2F82-4F75-8B87-922F68AB7590.png

0C3A9123-6613-44E2-8AF0-9888B247DB22.png

6FA7FCC7-6700-4AA6-8E70-BE6B32B97BAC.png

0A860DE0-EEAA-4357-9A81-6FFBC91D16FF.png

Looks like another inland storm 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Folks, all the posts about the storm on the 3rd will be moved to the approppriate thread.

There's a thread available for a storm (3-5).

Did not understand why you guys are posying in the wrong thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

Folks, all the posts about the storm on the 3rd will be moved to the approppriate thread.

There's a thread available for a storm (3-5).

Did not understand why you guys are posying in the wrong thread.

Posts concerning the Feb 3rd storm on the Jan 24th, 2019 EPS Control were moved to the February 3-5 storm thread.

Posts about the Jan 24th 12Z EPS for February 8th have all been removed, as they are completely off-topic in all senses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Just like PARD said.  The clipper pushed south a bit and a secondary develops further south also.  You really don't get the true picture on the 12Z  24 hour increments.   Looking at those I thought the relatively weak clipper over NW PA intensified rapidly in 24 hours and moved to NH as a 979 MB storm.  But that was totally wrong. The clipper forms a secondary further south as I mentioned already and that intensifies rapidly as it moves north.  Add in a tremendous arctic cold front and you get some snow.  What is unusual and much different than your typical scenario where the cold front passes after the QPF is gone in this instance the arctic front (surface temps and 850s crash) pushes through then the QPF comes later.   The snow map I'm posting is 10:1 where PARD posted the Kuchera.   Some snow all the way into the deep south.

Makes me wonder if the PV can push a little more south causing the secondary to "round the bend" even further south and east and tap into the Atlantic.  I don't know if that is out of the realm of possibility or not with this pretty strong PV.  :352nmsp:

 

Before and after to see where the new snow is modeled to be on the 12Z EURO

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_102_35_215.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012412_150_35_215.png

Here are the important frames for the redevelopment farther south.

Seems to go to western NY maybe towards central NY and then redevelops over NYC it seems.

1593439426_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.5b6c1a24bfc7c509a7b3da89bf1da8bc.gif

931158826_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined132.thumb.png.29d5fe39a5bc70fcc610a89c7d0ed057.png1593969678_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined138.thumb.png.9193cf18923096a382c0ee040ea56392.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This must nose dive south then redevelop or it’s toast.  It’s as simple as that because it will explode Miller B style 

Edited by PA road DAWG
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.png.91ce47dedd2cfaf32a29dc79d77dbb90.png

Icon getting a little more robust as well...Icon 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0Z CMC primary to secondary and then up the coast

 

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh108-144.gif

Edited by paletitsnow63
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, paletitsnow63 said:

0Z CMC brings it up the coast

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-144.gif

Something that many have mentioned being a possibility.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0Z CMC snow map after storm #1

 

gem_asnow_neus_25.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully, this should wake the thread up tomorrow

At this point 1-3 inches is a big storm for me.

Edited by shaulov4
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0Z UKMET.  Looks like secondary wants to form somewhere to the S / SE of primary then ride up coast to just north of Maine.  Would be nice to see the in between hours.

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A quick look at the 00Z FV3-GFS hours 90-132.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90-132.gif.1cb52c93c57b9910f1fda9a2c5ec9e82.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKie has a weird track, as modeled.

90.track.current.thumb.png.a20282efdbf5f8345be957245bac8abd.png

GYX

Quote

Currently the models are split as to where the main surface
low will track. There is a chance for mixed precipitation Tuesday
into Wednesday morning, but it is also possible we will see
predominantly snow. Since we are still quite a ways away and the
latest European run favors snow, have gone for the colder
scenario. The storm will rotate to the northeast by Wednesday
afternoon with wrap around showers lingering for the mountains.
Colder air filters in for Wednesday night into Thursday. The
atmosphere remains volatile and on the cold side with another
system possible for the weekend.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WPC

9khwbg_conus.gif.b3bee1965e71644f82ece05e2bb18cf6.gif

1358085811_9lhwbg_conus(1).gif.d2fb6d2268b89d0b45c7f2af054f4d45.gif

Seems like this isn't really a phasing situation, it's more how much room does the northern stream have to dig, and amplify on its own.

Quote

Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center

College Park MD 248 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 28 2019 - 12Z Fri Feb 1 2019

...Overview...

The overall flow pattern across the continental U.S. and Canada will remain highly amplified going into next week with a full latitude ridge situated just off the West Coast and a pronounced upper level trough encompassing much of the central and eastern U.S. A large and cold upper low, which is basically a lobe of the polar vortex, will reinforce the trough through Thursday before a slight deamplification evolves by next Friday.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The most significant aspect of the forecast is a deep upper low which the operational models and the ensemble means bring down toward Lake Superior by Wednesday, and this has its origin over the Arctic Ocean. Depending on exact upper low depth, 500mb height anomalies may reach at least 3-4 standard deviations below normal along/south of the low's path. This feature may promote further strengthening of the Midwest/Great Lakes system through New England and eastern Canada. Deeper trends in the means for the upper low but some lingering track spread in the guidance favor a combination of ECMWF/GFS along with their respective ensemble means.

Around the southern/eastern periphery of the overall trough there continues to be a more suppressed trend for any disturbances across the Gulf of Mexico and into the western Atlantic. Model inconsistency and spread keep confidence below average for specifics that affect intensity of rainfall over the Florida Peninsula. Guidance as a whole is maintaining recent trends toward lower potential for any waves to have a significant effect on the East Coast. The forecast nationwide was based mainly on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET earlier in the forecast, and then more ensemble means later in the forecast period.

...Weather Highlights/Hazards...

The main storm system of interest during this forecast period will be a clipper type system dropping southeast from central Canada along with an arctic front. This will bring a band of light to moderate snow across the southern Great Lakes and extending across the northern Ohio Valley on Monday, and then reaching the Northeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic region by late Tuesday. This is still subject to some change due to track variability in the operational guidance. Once the front trailing from the low reaches the Mississippi Valley and points east, some rain may develop in the warm sector and then possibly end as a period of snow with the frontal passage. After this system departs, more lake effect snow is likely downwind of the Great Lakes.

Another thing that will be making weather headlines by the middle of the upcoming week will be an impressive round of frigid temperatures as a lobe of the polar vortex sinks southeastward across Canada and then reaches the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to plummet well below zero across the Upper Midwest, most of the Great Lakes region, and the northern Ohio Valley by Wednesday and Thursday. Anomalies on the order of 25 to 35 degrees below normal are a good possibility for these regions, and it is quite likely that this would warrant wind chill warnings for many of these areas. Although the airmass will modify some by the time it reaches the East Coast, it should still be quite cold for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. on Thursday with highs well below freezing.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed this one has still some hope.

All hinges on the redevelopment farther south.

By the way, here is the 00Z ECMWF´s depiction:

It seems the redevelopment farther south occurs over the southern portion of Delmarva, but it´s too close to the coast, so the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic stays warm.

1204234284_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesNortheastUSPrecipTypeMSLP(1).gif.10b41a09216324ae368de9bbc23ae3f6.gif

772448194_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceNortheastUS6-hPrecip850hPaTemperature120.thumb.png.f8a57b68921859651d5e6b06c7259f94.png1421506210_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceundefinedundefined126.thumb.png.31bf223e8ab558eabd541003bc13eb76.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The thread date was adjusted to properly reflect the time frame shown on the majority of the models, which show the storm starting on the 29th and ending by very early on the 31st or late on the 30th.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

UKie has a weird track, as modeled.

90.track.current.thumb.png.a20282efdbf5f8345be957245bac8abd.png

GYX

 

It seems the that output does not account for redevelopments, and only shows the mean track.

00Z UKMET:

It shows two redevelopments. That could indicate that the first redevelopment may occur farther south and then negate the need of another redevelopment later on.

1976296258_UKMET17kmEastCoastUSAMSLP.gif.ddb8ba5ab0513c37e2452277d7d44513.gif

1246433088_UKMET17kmEastCoastUSAMSLP120.thumb.png.0ecd0ea45db7f550c1108b362fa7f34b.png940468970_UKMET17kmEastCoastUSAMSLP132.thumb.png.5c92add480eb4cc700df430571d5e749.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z EPS Control:

The secondary seems to develop over NW Georgia and then track to the NE. But the track isn´t that idea for all snow for the northern Mid-Atlantic near coastal areas and southern New England.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.e46eb76188e65d12fd8b75162c1380be.gif

  • Hell NO! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

00Z EPS Control:

The secondary seems to develop over NW Georgia and then track to the NE. But the track isn´t that idea for all snow for the northern Mid-Atlantic near coastal areas and southern New England.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.e46eb76188e65d12fd8b75162c1380be.gif

This. This is not a Miller B scenario. It's a cold front that drives thru and then you have redevelopment on the front. The 500 shows it perfectly with energy rounding the base of the trough although this is probably the most put together example. The GFS is much less consolidated (probably more realistic if we're using this winters trends as a guide.)

gem_z500_vort_us_21.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TWC has me at 6 - 10 inches for this event but at only 50% chance. 

 

Screenshot_20190125-083036_The Weather Channel for Samsung.jpg

Edited by Caeldeth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

0Z CMC primary to secondary and then up the coast

 

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh108-144.gif

Just keep the rain away fro us here Felton Delaware as we have had plenty from the past couple of storms. Irrigation ditches along the roads are filled with no room for more rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's go CMC - its better in the split flow dawg :rapper-smiley-emoticon:

Eh prob not but someone on here said that some pro met said it was so I'm going with it! Funny how we trash the CMC (rightfully so) but when desperate for snow make up scenarios where it excels. "It excels when the high originates in Canada!" "It excels in the split flow!" Hey I need something to desperately hang on to at this point don't judge me!

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Razo said:

Let's go CMC - its better in the split flow dawg :rapper-smiley-emoticon:

Eh prob not but someone on here said that some pro met said it was so I'm going with it! Funny how we trash the CMC (rightfully so) but when desperate for snow make up scenarios where it excels. "It excels when the high originates in Canada!" "It excels in the split flow!" Hey I need something to desperately hang on to at this point don't judge me!

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Personally, I haven't had a snowfall >3" IMBY for several consecutive years (I was out of town for the 4" event in my signature) so pessimism replaced my desperation a long time ago. 

I'm going to stick to my guns that this event is mostly just a powerful anafront. Everyone should see snowflakes with this storm, but accumulations will be light for most. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...