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Phased Vort

2019 | Bahamas - SE - Mid-Atlantic | Tropical & Subtropical Development Disco

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Welcome to the Bahamas  - SE - Mid-Atlantic | Tropical & Subtropical Development Disco 2019 thread.

In this thread, there should only be discussions concerning possible tropical cyclones developments shown by models, long-range development signals from ensemble guidance, and other organic or conventional signals observed or forecasted from the analysis of related data.

Important note: Once a tropical wave, low pressure or stalled out front area is designated as an INVEST by the NHC, the discussion about that area of disturbed weather ceases on this thread and continues on the appropriate thread created once the invest is activated.

Below is an illustrative image of the geographical area covered by this thread, and images regarding the most active climatologically favored months and areas for tropical cyclogenesis.

Bahamas.PNG.f1304426d255c80eb44fa30f6b868d18.PNG

 

 

june.gif.070a02fab062a03a14584113af17b821.gifjuly.gif.90ad899bcc6c15f1a7d85ec350c133c0.gifaugust.gif.3ccacbbbc35c580e4f9e7003a2cbaede.gif

september.gif.a906e67d3c41b130ffb166d3af4b5c90.gifoctober.gif.21f6a640cc0005856499955bbf9479fe.gifnovember.gif.2873175cfbecd4fb8d9f650c17ea6d47.gif

 

General important tropical cyclone information to aid in the discussion can be found on the next page.

 


 

Tropical Cyclone Structure & Cycle Info

2000px-Hurricane-en_svg.thumb.png.1e8638ba190fd55b5c25cb56966e5dca.pngiclr-forecast-webinar-2014-canadian-hurricane-season-june-20-2014-5-638.jpg.7ba05d15296648d224b3459adff41c6d.jpg

 

 

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If they don't fix the Fv3, I'll never get any work done.

 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh294-384.gif

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Interesting little critter off the Florida coast on the 3km NAM. But on the 12 km NAM, it does not look anywhere as nice.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh35-60.thumb.gif.100858ede94061c08221b4c7a95d4439.gif

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I may owe the Fv3 a half apology.

1730710105_VideoConverterUltimate_20190326104156.gif.d58bc603e71cf8292741ca5d3bcdb6a1.gif

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

I may owe the Fv3 a half apology.

1730710105_VideoConverterUltimate_20190326104156.gif.d58bc603e71cf8292741ca5d3bcdb6a1.gif

Using the 850mb temperature data, we can clearly see a warm temperature profile in the center of the low.

665811076_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSA850hPaTemperature.gif.2a974376c8e8b741d2e6339a487b6427.gif

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I think this is the correct place to post this.

Looks like Florida and the SE U.S. coast will need to keep an eye on this tropical low near the Bahamas.

GOES16-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-625x375.gif.8c4c3e1567e36328fff6f24a6528fbb2.gif

NHC has a update on it and possible track for the 5 day period.

image.png.f740e06653564a34dc96103b50fe6223.png

Text from NHC.

Spoiler
Tropical Weather Outlook Text  

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Little
development is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance
turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next
couple of days.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

One month before the official start of Hurricane season and we have something to track/keep an eye on already.

 

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week.
Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

spacer.png

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week.
Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

spacer.png

May be able to get an invest going and maybe a sub or tropical depression. A weak sub or tropical storm would be a major achievement.

 

12Z ECMWF:

554898481_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesEastCoastUSAPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.b031a408f6cf50edeb660aa4a9fc4886.gif

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5-day outlook nows gives this little critter a 40% chance of development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

two_atl_5d1.png.039766c7c2fe794bc577d60c1035573a.png

 
 
 
Quote

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas.
An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of
disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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GFS will be keeping us busy this year.  Though, the MJO going into 8/1 is favorable for development as well.

 

1063837021_earlyjune.gif.7d31ddb7ee044725d483a46a6f324fbf.gif

1818020074_junemjo.PNG.d416a7c9aa17351a1a5eee15477ff661.PNG

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WOW!!! :classic_ohmy: where did this come from?  When I checked NHC site late last night there was nothing. Looks like a low chance for development at this time. Another close to homegrown storm.

image.png.4847afe4a95b796570315427d74a5335.png

TEXT:

Quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  Some slight development is possible over the
next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

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The way this area looks, I think we may have another invest soon.

GOES16-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-625x375.gif.cb4585d3b845e686d64602f4a5b9ae66.gif

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Posted (edited)

a gfs run from last week had this energy missing the trough, getting into the gulf and getting organized into a hurricane... just that one run though... 

 

6CA2EE9C-C7F3-4972-96DC-97215857E6D5.gif.ab7c8892a8e13dde066f33a14108eb08.gif

Edited by Qdeathstar

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46 minutes ago, Qdeathstar said:

a gfs run from last week had this energy missing the trough, getting into the gulf and getting organized into a hurricane... just that one run though... 

 

6CA2EE9C-C7F3-4972-96DC-97215857E6D5.gif.ab7c8892a8e13dde066f33a14108eb08.gif

Interesting, the 8:00pm NHC has it going towards the GOM. I think it is now 94L I was checking hurricane runs on Tropical Tidbits and it had this as 94L

image.png.52f05b85aeae4f1e7d0e81eb1fe698c0.png

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10 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Interesting, the 8:00pm NHC has it going towards the GOM. I think it is now 94L I was checking hurricane runs on Tropical Tidbits and it had this as 94L

image.png.52f05b85aeae4f1e7d0e81eb1fe698c0.png

I don't know how to start a new thread but this is 94L and it at 30% this morning.  They also have the curve again.

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This needs to promptly move out of the area.  Don't want it to rain on my vacation next week.

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This wave has been traveling westward discretely and been picked up by some models in a rather inconsistent manner.

But it's there.  May start to want to show its colors by the time it passes by Cape Hatteras latitude.

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The invest has activated.

It's exclusive thread is already operational, 94L.

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Stay on the look out for possible tropical development near the SE CONUS coast from a Cape Verde wave that should track from Africa all the way to the Bahamas and then possibly start developing near the SE coast as it tracks NW and then N.

By early August we may have a better notion if this possibility will actually become something real.

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I gotta say it has been a pretty slow inactive year for tropical development this year. And notuch change in near future!!!

 

two_atl_5d0.png

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30 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

I gotta say it has been a pretty slow inactive year for tropical development this year. And notuch change in near future!!!

 

two_atl_5d0.png

I don't expect it to stay this way. Even the slowest years usually have an active period or two. 

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Off topic but anyone know if Ron in Miami made the trip from accuweather. Or is he going under a different name these days.

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2 hours ago, 1816 said:

I don't expect it to stay this way. Even the slowest years usually have an active period or two. 

Yeah  I think September could be very active!!!

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1 hour ago, Snow_____ said:

Off topic but anyone know if Ron in Miami made the trip from accuweather. Or is he going under a different name these days.

He's actually on the moderating staff, but he's seasonal, hasn't logged on since March.  Once the tropics get going, I suspect he'll surface. 

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49 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

He's actually on the moderating staff, but he's seasonal, hasn't logged on since March.  Once the tropics get going, I suspect he'll surface. 

Hmmm maybe we will see him soon. This was not there 4 hours ago.

image.png.23ec2143d5fa924964d65d296f635725.png

TEXT:

Quote
Tropical Weather Outlook Text  

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land.  However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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