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Phased Vort

2019 | Bahamas - SE - Mid-Atlantic | Tropical & Subtropical Development Disco

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

He's actually on the moderating staff, but he's seasonal, hasn't logged on since March.  Once the tropics get going, I suspect he'll surface. 

He is one of the most enthusiastic tropical cyclone season posters.

We do miss him posting.

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On 7/27/2019 at 4:05 PM, Phased Vort said:

Stay on the look out for possible tropical development near the SE CONUS coast from a Cape Verde wave that should track from Africa all the way to the Bahamas and then possibly start developing near the SE coast as it tracks NW and then N.

By early August we may have a better notion if this possibility will actually become something real.

 

39 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Hmmm maybe we will see him soon. This was not there 4 hours ago.

image.png.23ec2143d5fa924964d65d296f635725.png

TEXT:

 

I guess NHC is thinking this could be the Bahamas area near the SE CONUS coast that could develop there come early August, as I posted yesterday.

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That one now is Invest 95L.

Please use its exclusive thread to conitnue its discussion.

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19 hours ago, MaineJay said:

He's actually on the moderating staff, but he's seasonal, hasn't logged on since March.  Once the tropics get going, I suspect he'll surface. 

That makes since. Thanks!

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Interesting little SLP sitting east of NC/VA

G16_sector_eus_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20190730-1634.gif.17a299eb3a682afb3cac6d397c73824e.gif

NHC Tropical discussion has it as a 1017 SLP

A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center that 
is near 36N69W to 31N70W. A second surface trough is along the 
Florida east coast, along 78W/79W from 27N and the NW Bahamas to 
32N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 
25N northward from 54W westward.
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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Interesting little SLP sitting east of NC/VA

G16_sector_eus_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20190730-1634.gif.17a299eb3a682afb3cac6d397c73824e.gif

NHC Tropical discussion has it as a 1017 SLP


A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center that 
is near 36N69W to 31N70W. A second surface trough is along the 
Florida east coast, along 78W/79W from 27N and the NW Bahamas to 
32N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 
25N northward from 54W westward.

I posted about this a few days ago, thinkjng that it could an invest and possibly a minimal tropical storm candidate.

But NHC thinks othetwise.

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Some kind of tropical or hybrid cyclone may try to develop very close to the coast of NE Florida, Georgia , South Carolina or the extreme NE GOMEX in the next 7 days or so.

 

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15 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Some kind of tropical or hybrid cyclone may try to develop very close to the coast of NE Florida, Georgia , South Carolina or the extreme NE GOMEX in the next 7 days or so.

 

The GFS is trying, the last 3 runs it has popped up three low pressures beginning Saturday(8/17), another on Sunday(8/18) and the third one on Wed.(8/21). All of them get taken OTS, just strange to see 3 low pressures in a 5 day period pop up around the same area. Maybe there is a stall front and they are forming along the front. Below is the 8/13 12Z GFS from hour 84 to hour 204.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh84-204.gif.8993f02c7269ff072b4d974aae6cc8d2.gif

 

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HMM' :hmm: could that GFS run  above been on to something. At least something to monitor/track for a bit. Especially if you have travel or vacation plans in the area.

image.png.fb1a40de89bfcddcf89f639a29e5b695.png

TEXT:

Quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and across northeastern Florida.  Any tropical
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the
next few days while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the
coasts of Georgia, South and North Carolina.  Regardless of
development, the disturbance is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see information from your local National Weather Service
office or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook
for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake/Hagen

 

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NAM with a tropical look E3BB534F-80EB-4556-A5E5-D7A7D61387ED.thumb.jpeg.2e9797c8eaf26d35580cf9769890d0af.jpeg

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