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plowguy

January 28th 29th Clipper

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Well I'm thinking nobody wants to jinxx this one!  I will start a thread...with no model views!  Maybe it will help?  It does look like it has the potential for snow for many of us. 

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Thanks for starting this. Good potential with this one. I like where the system originates. Clipper like low that pulls energy from the south. Here’s some of the latest model runs.

18z GFS6DDE1D48-542F-4017-8045-22F09FA2CB31.png.51a040f8c270dea3f822d5ee3a714c49.png

B617AA65-F23A-443C-8E9A-0578D2984B1C.png.91bc8444e1c4bb1dd52d2ea0644cc8e0.png

B6C5279F-818F-44E9-9AF5-C88977771B3B.thumb.png.085a1a76af710f4596816428f43686f3.png

12z GEM7DB1B750-2EBF-4A99-97B8-CB62A881CC47.png.46423191b6181767199bd9c0b753fac3.png

441E8763-92BC-4436-AA58-774B2549265F.png.1faa3fc6252790906ebe15dcd6def32b.png

A4670F79-1247-43BE-BE05-633293A39988.thumb.png.4aadad0d112d302cf68f7b6e725b0c85.png

12z euro0E1A3D8E-9F28-4B47-A36C-E977FFA7897F.thumb.png.87f4a19cc8db36b0901d5080ea5610bc.png

ADABE7E7-D42A-48B7-B2AC-E577361734E0.thumb.png.d8d405cac499a04148cb8f1d14d96d1f.png

CC1E1FA8-642E-4A4E-A6C8-F9D5945E0FE0.thumb.png.ce9eb2aaeb12a3860e8bd713d78e75e0.png

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The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing the west end of lake ontario getting some extra accumulation with lake enhancement. We’ll see how that works.

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00z euroDFE34AE2-2968-41E5-BB66-3D06B8DF98E9.thumb.png.d3687c85fbfd09c5144abed1e26e9fd8.png

E45065DC-EC68-4F3D-A502-732EF82A8B02.thumb.png.7dbf5c685213a2404ae23207de0b7b96.png

A786FA1D-27C7-4A84-9048-B25BED86AD31.thumb.png.7120e2fe4afdbc0f5474ab50430d92a4.png

BC42EF5A-7024-4CF3-91A9-96482AA3692C.thumb.png.b78f65f08d6af6aeb3f06e7579777be3.png

7801BCA0-4699-4B31-8928-9ED804777D8E.thumb.png.b084415b962b217cd5455388b601a997.png

06z GFSAE39A7CC-5934-4E08-B678-319DD1E927CF.png.a8e29c2d8d7af8372d839d5945c9714f.png

99405986-B503-4792-A115-C96331A78159.thumb.png.3352c00c12cbcc51a1d96618b9aaf0c5.png

06z NAMFEFBB894-B7D7-42CC-BA7E-9E7AA1BFA979.thumb.png.5083e7c8ba9fccb832b51db35d02d349.png

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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Looks promising but a bit of a northern shift could put me out rather quickly.

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15 hours ago, plowguy said:

Well I'm thinking nobody wants to jinxx this one!  I will start a thread...with no model views!  Maybe it will help?  It does look like it has the potential for snow for many of us. 

All heart broken from what could have been last week :) 

 

It could have been : 

 

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The GFS text forecast has backed off from a few days ago, when it was showing a foot plus, part way through the event. It's now 6 to 10 inches for the entire event, except Quebec City,  which is looking at over 16 inches. Southern Ontario and Montreal are looking at some rain mixed in, which will literally put a damper on snow accumulations.

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 25JAN 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   75 01/28 15Z   10      4    0.00         10      7    0.0            
   78 01/28 18Z   15     12    0.02 -SN     15      7    0.3  0.02    0.3
   81 01/28 21Z   16     15    0.11 -SN     16     14    1.9  0.13    2.2
   84 01/29 00Z   23     22    0.17 -SN     23     14    2.1  0.30    4.3
   87 01/29 03Z   34     34    0.27 RA      34     23    0.1  0.57    4.4
   90 01/29 06Z   34     34    0.12 RA      36     23    0.1  0.69    4.5
   93 01/29 09Z   32     29    0.07 -SN     34     32    0.5  0.76    5.0
   96 01/29 12Z   23     20    0.01 -SN     34     22    0.2  0.77    5.2
   99 01/29 15Z   20     17    0.01 -SN     24     20    0.0  0.78      
  102 01/29 18Z   16     12    0.00 -SN     24     16    0.0            
  105 01/29 21Z   16     12    0.01 -SN     17     16    0.1  0.01    0.1
  108 01/30 00Z   12      8    0.00 -SN     17     12    0.0            
  111 01/30 03Z    2     -1    0.01 -SN     11      2    0.0  0.01      
  114 01/30 06Z   -1     -5    0.00 -SN     11     -1    0.0            
  117 01/30 09Z   -4     -8    0.01 -SN     -1     -4    0.0  0.01      
  120 01/30 12Z   -7    -12    0.00 -SN     -1     -7    0.3          0.3
  123 01/30 15Z   -9    -14    0.00         -7     -9    0.1          0.4
  126 01/30 18Z   -9    -14    0.00         -7     -9    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 25JAN 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   75 01/28 15Z    2      0    0.00          3      1    0.0            
   78 01/28 18Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      7      1    0.3  0.02    0.3
   81 01/28 21Z   15     15    0.12 -SN     15      7    2.2  0.14    2.5
   84 01/29 00Z   19     18    0.27 SN      19      7    4.0  0.41    6.5
   87 01/29 03Z   26     25    0.26 SN      26     19    3.1  0.67    9.6
   90 01/29 06Z   36     36    0.25 RA      36     19    0.0  0.92      
   93 01/29 09Z   33     31    0.12 -SN     35     33    0.7  1.04    0.7
   96 01/29 12Z   22     19    0.06 -SN     35     22    0.8  1.10    1.5
   99 01/29 15Z   24     20    0.01 -SN     25     22    0.1  1.11    1.6
  102 01/29 18Z   18     15    0.01 -SN     25     18    0.0  1.12      
  105 01/29 21Z   15     11    0.00 -SN     17     15    0.0            
  108 01/30 00Z   11      8    0.00 -SN     17     11    0.0            
  111 01/30 03Z    6      3    0.01 -SN     11      6    0.2  0.01    0.2
  114 01/30 06Z   -1     -4    0.00 -SN     11     -1    0.0            
  117 01/30 09Z   -3     -7    0.01 -SN     -1     -3    0.2  0.01    0.2
  120 01/30 12Z   -7    -11    0.01 -SN     -1     -7    0.2  0.02    0.4
  123 01/30 15Z   -8    -12    0.00 -SN     -7     -8    0.2          0.6
  126 01/30 18Z   -8    -13    0.00 -SN     -7     -8    0.0            
  129 01/30 21Z  -11    -15    0.00 -SN     -8    -11    0.0            
  132 01/31 00Z  -14    -17    0.00 -SN     -8    -14    0.2          0.2
  135 01/31 03Z  -12    -15    0.00        -12    -14    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 25JAN 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   75 01/28 15Z    9      5    0.00         10      6    0.0            
   78 01/28 18Z   15     11    0.01         15      6    0.1  0.01    0.1
   81 01/28 21Z   18     16    0.07 -SN     18     15    1.4  0.08    1.5
   84 01/29 00Z   23     22    0.26 SN      23     15    3.9  0.34    5.4
   87 01/29 03Z   33     32    0.34 RA      33     23    1.2  0.68    6.6
   90 01/29 06Z   37     36    0.22 RA      37     23    0.0  0.90      
   93 01/29 09Z   34     33    0.19 SN      36     34    1.2  1.09    1.2
   96 01/29 12Z   25     22    0.07 -SN     36     25    1.0  1.16    2.2
   99 01/29 15Z   26     22    0.03 -SN     26     25    0.3  1.19    2.5
  102 01/29 18Z   22     17    0.00 -SN     26     22    0.0            
  105 01/29 21Z   18     13    0.00         22     18    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 25JAN 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   75 01/28 15Z    3      0    0.00          5      2    0.0            
   78 01/28 18Z   11      9    0.02 -SN     11      2    0.4  0.02    0.4
   81 01/28 21Z   16     15    0.09 -SN     16     11    1.6  0.11    2.0
   84 01/29 00Z   19     18    0.22 SN      19     11    3.5  0.33    5.5
   87 01/29 03Z   25     24    0.26 SN      25     19    2.6  0.59    8.1
   90 01/29 06Z   35     34    0.29 RA      36     19    0.4  0.88    8.5
   93 01/29 09Z   36     35    0.15 RA      38     34    0.2  1.03    8.7
   96 01/29 12Z   30     26    0.06 -SN     38     29    0.7  1.09    9.4
   99 01/29 15Z   28     24    0.02 -SN     30     26    0.3  1.11    9.7
  102 01/29 18Z   26     20    0.00 -SN     30     25    0.0            
  105 01/29 21Z   18     13    0.00         26     18    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 25JAN 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   84 01/29 00Z   -4     -8    0.00         -3     -6    0.0            
   87 01/29 03Z   -3     -4    0.03 -SN     -2     -4    0.7  0.03    0.7
   90 01/29 06Z   -2     -3    0.12 -SN     -2     -4    2.2  0.15    2.9
   93 01/29 09Z    0      0    0.09 -SN      0     -2    1.5  0.24    4.4
   96 01/29 12Z    5      4    0.12 -SN      5     -2    1.9  0.36    6.3
   99 01/29 15Z   15     14    0.14 -SN     15      5    1.5  0.50    7.8
  102 01/29 18Z   28     28    0.16 SN      28      5    1.2  0.66    9.0
  105 01/29 21Z   31     28    0.07 -SN     34     26    0.5  0.73    9.5
  108 01/30 00Z   25     21    0.01 -SN     34     24    0.0  0.74      
  111 01/30 03Z   18     15    0.00         25     18    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 25JAN 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   87 01/29 03Z   -4     -7    0.00         -4     -8    0.0            
   90 01/29 06Z   -3     -4    0.03 -SN     -3     -8    0.6  0.03    0.6
   93 01/29 09Z   -2     -3    0.12 -SN     -2     -3    2.0  0.15    2.6
   96 01/29 12Z    0      0    0.13 -SN      0     -3    1.9  0.28    4.5
   99 01/29 15Z   23     22    0.10 -SN     23      0    1.4  0.38    5.9
  102 01/29 18Z   36     33    0.07 -RA     36      0    0.0  0.45      
  105 01/29 21Z   36     36    0.06 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.51      
  108 01/30 00Z   29     26    0.09 -SN     36     29    1.0  0.60    1.0
  111 01/30 03Z   25     22    0.04 -SN     28     25    0.6  0.64    1.6
  114 01/30 06Z   19     15    0.06 -SN     28     19    1.0  0.70    2.6
  117 01/30 09Z   10      5    0.01 -SN     19     10    0.2  0.71    2.8
  120 01/30 12Z   12      9    0.00 -SN     19      8    0.0            
  123 01/30 15Z    5     -1    0.00         12      5    0.0            
  126 01/30 18Z    8      2    0.00         12      5    0.0            
  129 01/30 21Z    6      1    0.01 -SN      8      6    0.4  0.01    0.4
  132 01/31 00Z    3      0    0.01 -SN      8      3    0.4  0.02    0.8
  135 01/31 03Z    0     -3    0.01 -SN      3      0    0.2  0.03    1.0
  138 01/31 06Z   -4     -8    0.00 -SN      3     -4    0.0            
  141 01/31 09Z   -1     -3    0.00         -1     -4    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 25JAN 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   90 01/29 06Z   -9    -12    0.00         -9    -16    0.0            
   93 01/29 09Z   -2     -3    0.02 -SN     -2     -8    0.4  0.02    0.4
   96 01/29 12Z    2      1    0.07 -SN      2     -8    1.4  0.09    1.8
   99 01/29 15Z    5      4    0.12 -SN      5      2    2.1  0.21    3.9
  102 01/29 18Z   13     12    0.09 -SN     13      2    1.6  0.30    5.5
  105 01/29 21Z   19     18    0.12 -SN     19     13    1.5  0.42    7.0
  108 01/30 00Z   24     23    0.21 SN      25     13    1.7  0.63    8.7
  111 01/30 03Z   29     29    0.26 SN      29     24    2.2  0.89   10.9
  114 01/30 06Z   29     28    0.23 SN      33     22    2.4  1.12   13.3
  117 01/30 09Z   21     20    0.13 -SN     29     21    2.0  1.25   15.3
  120 01/30 12Z   15     12    0.07 -SN     29     15    1.5  1.32   16.8
  123 01/30 15Z   13      8    0.00 -SN     15     13    0.0            
  126 01/30 18Z    8      1    0.00 -SN     15      8    0.0            
  129 01/30 21Z    4      0    0.00          8      4    0.0

 

 

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Surprised this system isn’t getting more attention on the forum. 18z GFS came in a bit on the north side but still drops 8-15 cm for S ON. Areas further north see a bit more.

We’ll have to see if the euro solution of a more organized secondary low developing to the east is something other models catch on to.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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36 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Surprised this system isn’t getting more attention on the forum. 18z GFS came in a bit on the north side but still drops 8-15 cm for S ON. Areas further north see a bit more.

We’ll have to see if the euro solution of a more organized secondary low developing to the east is something other models catch on to.

We've been burned before so probably waiting until we get closer to take it more seriously. At this point I'd be happy with 5-10cm to build up some snow cover again.

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Sooo

 

Are we still interested in this or what lol

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19 hours ago, knorthern_knight said:

The GFS text forecast has backed off from a few days ago, when it was showing a foot plus, part way through the event. It's now 6 to 10 inches for the entire event, except Quebec City,  which is looking at over 16 inches. Southern Ontario and Montreal are looking at some rain mixed in, which will literally put a damper on snow accumulations.

 

Yeah if you value your sanity, don’t look at the latest GFS runs, yikes :negative:

edit: euro keeps us below freezing

Edited by TheRealDavid

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There’s also a low that moves in tomorrow morning right over the lower lakes. Could be a quick 2-5 cm event. NAM has increased it’s strength in the last couple runs and it’s showing up on the HRRR as well.

3B9BB472-10FC-469E-A022-EEF626110F44.png.efb55cee89afe4dc6bf2332439d882f4.png

93740CF4-53AD-4219-8C69-0BE50DBF8F80.png.f522278de53d90203824a06cbcf02301.png

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Actually that system tomorrow morning is showing up on the RGEM too. 12z RGEM has over 3” for GTA area. Sneaky little system to watch.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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Lookin like a good couple days coming up...

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6 minutes ago, snowbelt said:

Lookin like a good couple days coming up...

Finally!

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hopefully I can squeeze out 10cm from these 2 systems combined the next 2 days with no rain.  We snagged 5-10cm yesterday morning from some crazy squalls.  Was like a blizzard for about an hour.   

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My Accuweather app has12 to 20 cm forecast for this area

not sure what model is driving their predictions 

Looking good though 

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12z euro snow map

7F0FD098-0132-4BAB-A7E2-576042A41622.thumb.png.e3cb26eaa91387262475569a8ef1f691.png

This is total snowfall for the entire period.

Edited by SNOWBOB11
  • Like 1

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Temperature forecasts have dropped quite a bit for Monday and Tuesday, so no worries about mixed in rain. Another example of why not to blindly believe the models several days out.

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1 hour ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

12z euro snow map

7F0FD098-0132-4BAB-A7E2-576042A41622.thumb.png.e3cb26eaa91387262475569a8ef1f691.png

This is total snowfall for the entire period.

I have not been following these two threats until today so i am not sure what has been going on the past few days,did the 12z Euro come North?

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starting to think I might see 5-8cm tomorrow based on high rez models and snow ratios.  Heck, this first little system might deliver more snow than the 2nd one depending on where the 2nd one tracks.  

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16 minutes ago, HamiltonWx said:

starting to think I might see 5-8cm tomorrow based on high rez models and snow ratios.  Heck, this first little system might deliver more snow than the 2nd one depending on where the 2nd one tracks.  

I just watched the 18z nam roll in & it does look like the first clipper is a little more robust than the second one.

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