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Phased Vort

February 6-8, 2019 | Winter Storm

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PREFACE

Well, the discussion and discovery must continue. It cannot stop. So, even though we have been getting burned by big ghost storms, or if you prefer big snowstorms fairy tales on the models, we must keep the conversation about storms going and this way hopefully we are graced with a good winter storm for most of the region.

Having gotten that out of the way, the time frame in question is at least almost entering the medium range, as this time we will use this thread, to tackle the February 7th-8th time frame which is about 8 to 9 days out. Hopefully this time, with a shorter lead time, we avoid the drastic and volatile model swings we have been dealing with this winter with model depictions beyond 10 days out.

 

SET UP DESCRIPTION

The time frame in question appears to present a possible overrunning type storm originating from Texas and tracking towards the Mid-Atlantic on an ENE motion. Along its way towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and then off the coast over the Atlantic, moisture from the GOMEX should be introduced and lifted and thrown over a colder air mass to the north of the storm´s low-pressure track; overrunning. Additionally, it´s possible that some northern stream vort energy gets introduced into the dominant southern stream flow, which may cause an increase in strength and consequently a bigger storm. That though, as we all know, can bring to the table farther north track outcomes resulting in mixing and rain issues for the areas close to the storm´s low-pressure center. Furthermore, as the storm approaches the Mid-Atlantic region, there is a decent possibility that an off the coast redevelopment farther to the SE may occur and thus, some areas may experience snow or a wintry mix to rain to snow scenario as the redeveloping low-pressure takes over, if that kind of coastal cyclogenesis occurs at all.

Things to watch for:

  • How far south the storm originates in Texas
  • Possible northern stream vort getting enthused into the dominant southern stream low-pressure system
  • Southcentral and southeast Canada High pressures
  • Cold air strength and location
  • Cold air damming (CAD)
  • Baroclinic zone
  • Coastal redevelopment
  • Southeast ridge
  • Suppression

 

SIMPLE OVERALL ILLUSTRATION

2059393807_Feb7-8Stormtrack.thumb.png.b3cbd8b683d6b1b7bf28ddf9fefe9f5f.png2000926084_Feb7-8Stormscenario1.thumb.png.ae2fe685d6f8b71469b2b99c7031563f.png1176522745_Feb7-8Stormscenario2.thumb.png.e781fd3b2fe29232f677ad0692fdd5fc.png

 

Please find data relevant to this time frame on the next page.

 


 

RELEVANT SUPPORTIVE DATA

Teleconnections

ESRL/PSD

4indices.png.dee49bc4cb7ac94edbd52d82ea7dc6b2.thumb.png.d886d5895066b0c00365753beb2e7755.png

The ESRL/PSD teleconnection package looks pretty beneficial for a storm over the eastern US that may be a somewhat amplified and allow for possible redevelopment off the coast.

EPS 46-days

AO                                                                                                             EPO

2097814065_ao46.png.539f46bb65e8cb4b2acc4f18c232cbeb.png712261501_epo46.png.9fbb463c397b48709d862d0013948a50.png

AO and EPO combo looks supportive for cold air availability.

 

NAO                                                                                                            PNA

249544513_nao46.png.7b0873d5c4723c0ed63b15690eeacb1b.png1666856750_PNA46.png.24ee4a3195678dedfabc733325c4e01a.png

Negative NAO and negative PNA send a conflicting signal. Suggests a possible overruning type outcome.

 

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

Jan 29th, 2019 00Z                                                                                                              Jan 29th, 2019 12Z

1547032004_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.ef4deba30ffe49af80c663a92999dbaa.gifWebp.net-gifmaker.thumb.gif.f8b7b5c85d7e9d7031fadeddd88f916b.gif

 

Jan 29th, 2019 EPS

1190524789_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStatesMSLPAnomaly.gif.4e3839616c43853cef15218fe3db2e67.gif

 

All in all, this time frame looks active and is another shot for the region to get a storm that depending on how the players present themselves, could deliver wintry precipitation for areas to the north of the low-pressure system. The track may be far enough south that areas from Philadelphia to Boston may be affected by wintry precipitation.

Let it evolve! Let it do what it gotta do!

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Ok PV I'll play your torturous game. 

Here are the models

image.png.a49c8b9e44e081626eaedd6077951934.png

Fv3 shows a parade of storms here on after some favourable for many..but not this one

image.png.9cb24f8c8a3f156e80f193dec5739d3c.png

CMC rather weak and disconnected

image.png.9bd6c7f0db2412d18ef5ae115d6a9f23.png

 

Euro

image.thumb.png.d7087e1ba28c7642bd3fafccc8af34d4.png

The 11th however as I mentioned before looks really intresting...

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1 hour ago, shaulov4 said:

Ok PV I'll play your torturous game. 

Here are the models

image.png.a49c8b9e44e081626eaedd6077951934.png

Fv3 shows a parade of storms here on after some favourable for many..but not this one

image.png.9cb24f8c8a3f156e80f193dec5739d3c.png

CMC rather weak and disconnected

image.png.9bd6c7f0db2412d18ef5ae115d6a9f23.png

 

Euro

image.thumb.png.d7087e1ba28c7642bd3fafccc8af34d4.png

The 11th however as I mentioned before looks really intresting...

That was a fast reply! 

Thanks for contributing.

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9 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Ok PV I'll play your torturous game. 

Here are the models

image.png.a49c8b9e44e081626eaedd6077951934.png

Fv3 shows a parade of storms here on after some favourable for many..but not this one

image.png.9cb24f8c8a3f156e80f193dec5739d3c.png

CMC rather weak and disconnected

image.png.9bd6c7f0db2412d18ef5ae115d6a9f23.png

 

Euro

image.thumb.png.d7087e1ba28c7642bd3fafccc8af34d4.png

The 11th however as I mentioned before looks really intresting...

Still a week out so things can and usually do change

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Multiple High Pressures sitting to the North of this system. Looks eerily similar to systems we've been seeing all season. Maybe, just maybe the trough will be in a better location, the LP track following up the coast instead of the apps and HPs funneling in cold air. I know...its a lot to ask for. 06GFS for a better idea. 
 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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12Z FV3-GFS

 

fv3p_ref_frzn_us_fh180-234.gif

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2 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z FV3-GFS

 

 

Meanwhile, the operational GFS says....hello Michigan with the LP.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Edited by jgentworth

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14 minutes ago, jgentworth said:

Meanwhile, the operational GFS says....hello Michigan with the LP.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

pfff that is the old dented up, rusty GFS. Time to embrace the shiny new GFS Eff Vee 3 with Anti-lock brakes and electronic power steering.

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22 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Looks like a repeat of the Jan storm... rain east of 95.  

Unfortunately it looks like this year may not feature a storm for I95. 

(Now that I have said this, we will see several blizzards) :brian-dancing-banana-smiley-emoticon:

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The GFS, FV3 and ECMWF night runs took a step in the right direction concerning the wintry precipitation aspect for this time frame for areas of the Mid-Atlantic and farther north.

Hopefully, the evolution takes the region to a colder precipitation event. 

We will see how the models will interpret the current cold air over the region and where exactly the storm passing over the northern Great Lakes on the 4th and 5th of February will actually track and hang its associated cold front.

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This is the second wave that runs up the frontal boundary, grazing the coast.  Could be LI's biggest storm! 

GFS and EPS Control.  Euro missing it.

ecmwfa1ec---usmercator-204-C-mslpthkpcpk6_whitecounty.thumb.png.88a641f644e555ff03620738ae42e979.png

gfs---usmercator-198-C-mslpthkpcptypek2_whitecounty.thumb.png.c1c1c8a922922e4a60466d4d607b13f3.png

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55 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

This is the second wave that runs up the frontal boundary, grazing the coast.  Could be LI's biggest storm! 

GFS and EPS Control.  Euro missing it.

ecmwfa1ec---usmercator-204-C-mslpthkpcpk6_whitecounty.thumb.png.88a641f644e555ff03620738ae42e979.png

gfs---usmercator-198-C-mslpthkpcptypek2_whitecounty.thumb.png.c1c1c8a922922e4a60466d4d607b13f3.png

Promising, but talk to me next Wednesday. The models have been pretty terrible all winter.

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Let´s see the 12Z today continue on the positive evolution from the night runs.

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The thread´s date may need to be changed to include Feb 6th given that on the 6th, there may be wintry mix issues for the region.

Let´s observe. If needed the change will occur.

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15 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

The thread´s date may need to be changed to include Feb 6th given that on the 6th, there may be wintry mix issues for the region.

Let´s observe. If needed the change will occur.

Or maybe instead use a separate thread for the wave on the 6th. As this one could come only on the 8th of February and there would be too much space between the events.

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Just now, Phased Vort said:

Or maybe instead use a separate thread for the wave on the 6th. As this one could come only on the 8th of February and there would be too much space between the events.

Probably right. The 8th is looking like a different event at this point.

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12Z GFS brings the storm on the 8th and into the 9th of Fed; a day later.

Timing aside, the GFS shows a much better outcome, main for the central and northern Mid-Atlantic on this run.

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12Z GFS Snow Map

 

gfs_asnow_neus_38.png

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9 minutes ago, suzook said:

Probably right. The 8th is looking like a different event at this point.

Yea.

The wave on the 6th into the 7th, is the first wave that brings the cold front farther south.

Each wave brings that cold air farther south. The first wave/storm tracks over the Great Lakes and leaves the cold front stalled out somewhere over central NY and the Ohio Valley. The second wave/storm follows that and leaves the cold front stalled out somewhere over SE NY and over the TN valley. Then this wave comes tracking the cold front and as it gets over the southeast CONUS, it tries to amplify some and hits the Mid-Atlantic.

Will continue to observe to adjust the thread dates properly if needed.

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icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_60.png

 

Icon showing what we have seen alot this winter.....Thats awfullly warm.

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The FV3 is painting a much more wintry picture starting with the 6th and all the way to the 8th.

The evolution is nice. There is still rain for the coastal areas, but the wintry theme is much more pronounced.

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Pictures...

GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh150-222.thumb.gif.e8d18e1016129b44f67572578715eec9.gif

 

FV3

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh150-210.thumb.gif.4de4040ab4cfdee2005237662ac9aab1.gif

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12Z EURO snowmap.  Before and after.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019013112_162_35_215.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019013112_192_35_215.png

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