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Phased Vort

February 6-8, 2019 | Winter Storm

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6 hours ago, StretchCT said:

This is the second wave that runs up the frontal boundary, grazing the coast.  Could be LI's biggest storm! 

GFS and EPS Control.  Euro missing it.

ecmwfa1ec---usmercator-204-C-mslpthkpcpk6_whitecounty.thumb.png.88a641f644e555ff03620738ae42e979.png

gfs---usmercator-198-C-mslpthkpcptypek2_whitecounty.thumb.png.c1c1c8a922922e4a60466d4d607b13f3.png

🤣🤣 Probably!!

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6Z FV3-GFS advertising wave after wave of frozen QPF i80 and north.  Then a final one south in VA / NC.   Snow map also posted.   This would include quite a bit of sleet in PA, N NJ, SE NY.  But it appears on this run that arctic air sets up and a boundary line / stationary front develops.  SLPs keep running over that boundary over and over.

 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh132-240.gif

fv3p_asnow_us_41.png

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2 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

6Z FV3-GFS advertising wave after wave of frozen QPF i80 and north.  Then a final one south in VA / NC.   Snow map also posted.   This would include quite a bit of sleet in PA, N NJ, SE NY.  But it appears on this run that arctic air sets up and a boundary line / stationary front develops.  SLPs keep running over that boundary over and over.

 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh132-240.gif

fv3p_asnow_us_41.png

Ugh, enough with the nonstop mostly rain events. I am done with precip. Seems like 2 events a week. I know we are all snow starved, but could you imagine if most of these events were snow? Would be an epic winter.

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12Z FV3-GFS still advertising frozen QPF.  Looks more like a lot of sleet and ice looking at the 6 hour moisture increments.

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_34.png

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Who was it that implied I was panicking the last time I saw something like this?  Then I ended up with no power for 48 hrs with subzero temps. 

Don't get excited over that TT snow map.

zr_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.ebdda6746efc191bc78dc3eb3a23b1ff.png

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I have a flight out of JFK Friday morning Feb 8th. I can guarantee alot of snow and ice finally for the NYC area:negative:

 

In all seriousness, The FV3 is the only model at this point showing this. Whats the difference between the FV3 and the regular GFS?

Edited by suzook

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36 minutes ago, suzook said:

Ugh, enough with the nonstop mostly rain events. I am done with precip. Seems like 2 events a week. I know we are all snow starved, but could you imagine if most of these events were snow? Would be an epic winter.

I expect a bunch of cold rain next week.  I got snow today but i am so tired of rain.  I would trade minimal rain the rest of winter for no snow at this point.  

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Who was it that implied I was panicking the last time I saw something like this?  Then I ended up with no power for 48 hrs with subzero temps. 

Don't get excited over that TT snow map.

zr_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.ebdda6746efc191bc78dc3eb3a23b1ff.png

Oh that´s no joke.

The 12Z ECMWF seems to have a lot of ice as well, but it´s more focused for the interior NE.

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Who was it that implied I was panicking the last time I saw something like this?  Then I ended up with no power for 48 hrs with subzero temps. 

Don't get excited over that TT snow map.

zr_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.ebdda6746efc191bc78dc3eb3a23b1ff.png

I do think it's way too far out to even look at an icemap, we can barely trust the GFS at FH120, let alone FH180, and then considering freezing rain is extremely difficult to forecast... I wouldn't bother with that at the moment...

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12z euro run

1256970205_2-112zeurorun.gif.f2f705f36e7bb2b5c1f56855e641553e.gif

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Euro seems to off on its own right now, sending the trough negative as it exits the 4-corners region (over phasing?). Euro has been going through a rocky stretch seemingly going too early with negative tilt and over-phasing. Unfortunately EPS seems to support its OP though.

Meanwhile both American models, including GEFS, and GEM/GEPS look to keep trough more positive through the Rockies leading to more of the SWFE event for the eastern conus. GEM seems to be the middle ground scenario at this point, warmer than American, but more wintry than Euro....so personally gonna favor the 12z GEM at this point. (yeah I said it! Drunk Uncle has been doing alright by my assesment of late...verification scores be damned)

Edited by telejunkie
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5 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

6Z FV3-GFS advertising wave after wave of frozen QPF i80 and north.  Then a final one south in VA / NC.   Snow map also posted.   This would include quite a bit of sleet in PA, N NJ, SE NY.  But it appears on this run that arctic air sets up and a boundary line / stationary front develops.  SLPs keep running over that boundary over and over.

 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh132-240.gif

fv3p_asnow_us_41.png

And at this time frame, if the right interaction happens with the arctic air/front, many good things could happen. Looks like some good tracking ahead.

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Who was it that implied I was panicking the last time I saw something like this?  Then I ended up with no power for 48 hrs with subzero temps. 

Don't get excited over that TT snow map.

zr_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.ebdda6746efc191bc78dc3eb3a23b1ff.png

Easy Stretch, you know how those maps can be.....well overdone

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3 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z FV3-GFS still advertising frozen QPF.  Looks more like a lot of sleet and ice looking at the 6 hour moisture increments.

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_34.png

Wow...just...not cool, lol.

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oh nooooooo 10days of listening to pard coming :smiley:

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6 hours ago, suzook said:

Ugh, enough with the nonstop mostly rain events. I am done with precip. Seems like 2 events a week. I know we are all snow starved, but could you imagine if most of these events were snow? Would be an epic winter.

And i would be complaining about all the damned snow days!!! ;-)  I love snow days...but i think back to January of 2011 and how freaking many we had - and there were many!!! - and i'm okay with no snow days.

Love the storms on the weekends, though! ;-)

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6 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Who was it that implied I was panicking the last time I saw something like this?  Then I ended up with no power for 48 hrs with subzero temps. 

Don't get excited over that TT snow map.

zr_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.ebdda6746efc191bc78dc3eb3a23b1ff.png

Ice scares me.  Snow, rain, wind, whatever...i'm nervous.  But ice scares me.  I don't like this map at all.

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18Z GFS starting to look more like the 12Z ECMWF now. Instead of showing  3 or 4 separate waves, it's showing a more concentrated storm.

 

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It is totally about the NAO guys. If we can jam it up game on. This one MIGHT be early for that , but not impossible. After, we really have some chances if we get blocking, which is really possible - but where does it set up.. If not, we have no shot with this setup. We have pulled out snow storms in bad patterns before many times. If we get any type of help from the Atlantic, game on  and that is not out of the question. I know there is talk about a southern slider or two after the warm spell, but we need that to kill the beast in the southeast. (OK, we can't kill it, but we can subdue it, keep it "at bay' for a while . ) We may sneak this one in guys, but if not keep the faith please.

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png

Things just are not looking very good.

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Yea I think this will be on the warmer side as this slides east to our north.   If there ever was one this winter, our best shot in the next few weeks will be between the 2/12-17 timeframe.   Until then it’s too warm 

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Man the models are all over the place with this.  Not even counting the overly negatively tilted solution from the ecmwf yesterday

Ukie

690759606_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000(2).gif.c912f33fc2e66d981d1fc7089ca82b27.gif

GFS for comparison

gfs_z500_mslp_us_25.png.9431a08a5784bc9813cea90702eb6b14.png

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NWS has been trimming down the high temps for Thursday and Friday for my area, we started in the mid 40's and are now in the upper 30's, dropping to freezing at night, rain / snow is the wording, hopefully the trend continues. 

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11 hours ago, suzook said:

 

Things just are not looking very good.

Yup, entire GFS run is no bueno, running out of time for snow.....

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11 hours ago, suzook said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png

Things just are not looking very good.

That's a nice April storm right there. 

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19 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

That's a nice April storm right there. 

Yes! This is crazy. I've been quiet, but this might go down as the worst winter I ever experience here in central Jersey. I think I have an inch in total for this winter excluding the November storm. I have eyes on the 11th-13,15th period but after that things look pretty grim for winter lovers. 

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