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Winter_warlock

February 1-2, 2019 | Snow Event

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GFS shows a little disturbance in mid Atlantic on Feb 1st.  Looks minor  but still something to watch!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

Edited by Winter_warlock
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12 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

GFS shows a little disturbance in mid Atlantic on Feb 1st.  Looks minor  but still something to watch!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

I actually believe this disturbance may give more on the coast then today's, A quick 1-3 or even 2-4 is not out of question, gets washed up but good for some pics

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2 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

I actually believe this disturbance may give more on the coast then today's, A quick 1-3 or even 2-4 is not out of question, gets washed up but good for some pics

Yeah and with the very cold Temps we should have good ratios no matter what we get lol

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I was wondering about this if anyone was going to say something cause my weather has and had all week for 40% chance of snow for this

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30 minutes ago, bucikaroo said:

I was wondering about this if anyone was going to say something cause my weather has and had all week for 40% chance of snow for this

Forecast for me is snow likely 60%. 

00z gfs

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

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2 hours ago, Anthonyweather said:

6 hour storm with those temps.... virga storm 

Yeah super cold dry air. Maybe  alot of Virga before any starts reaching the ground

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Thanks for creating this thread.  This little system is a great setup for IMBY.  A cold clipper coming from the northwest that enables orographic lift to squeeze out as much moisture as possible.  Most important, probably the first time this winter that I do not need to worry about WAANWS Pittsburgh is thinking accumulations listed below but these events often overproduce IMBY.  However, I doubt it overproduces over what is shown below.  We live right at the bottom of the "O" and "W" in Morgantown on the map.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

Edited by lfunk11

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1 minute ago, lfunk11 said:

Thanks for creating this thread.  This little system is a great setup for IMBY.  A cold clipper coming from the northwest that enables orographic lift to squeeze out as much moisture as possible.  Most important, probably the first time this winter that I do not need to worry about WAANWS Pittsburgh is thinking accumulations listed below but these events often overproduce IMBY.  However, I doubt it overproduces over what is shown below.  We live right at the bottom of the "O" and "W" in Morgantown on the map.

Hate to break your spirit but those snow maps are from Novembers '17 event, your not getting those amounts...sorry bruh

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1 minute ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Hate to break your spirit but those snow maps are from Novembers '17 event, your not getting those amounts...sorry bruh

I updated them - whenever I "copy image" they never show up right, I had to save them and then post them.  Sorry. 

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1 minute ago, lfunk11 said:

I updated them - whenever I "copy image" they never show up right, I had to save them and then post them.  Sorry. 

Well that's better then before !!! Your in, enjoy the snow

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06z FV3 makes this system a little more robust.

image.png.46292d92fc852de8c3def720c8e181e6.png

Icon backs it up

image.png.0137ca33d98da37606ab767a63e5bf33.png

Edited by shaulov4

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Hmmm maybe I can get some snow out of this disturbance.  It's slim pickings since none of the storms seem to pan out this year, but I take an inch!

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The Nam makes this thing evaporate before it even gets to the coast. 

0z Euro looks GFSish with its southern positioning 

 

 

 

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The WV ridge tops and maybe MDBR's neighborhood should make out well with this storm. Energy and a little bit of moisture with really cold temps equal a nice fluffy snow. 

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It´s impressive how so close, 2.5 days out more or less, there´s still model spread.

Some of them maintain a better-structured precipitation canopy after crossing the mountains. Others, on the other hand, all but dissipate the canopy.

May be a case that if the precipitation shield tracks over West Virginia, the west facing slopes of the high mountains there squeeze out almost all the moisture and dump it all there. Then, there is not much for the weak energy to lift again on the east side of the mountains for the eastern regions closer to the coast over VA, Maryland, southern PA and Delmarva, as the downsloping effect on the east side of the mountain and the very cold dry air combined become too much of a challenge for that weak energy to overcome and possibly lift whatever moisture it musters for the near coastal plain areas.

I would say that chances for snowfall for areas closer to the coastal plain, would be if that atmospheric flow ripple tracks farther north a bit through PA, (please see the 06Z FV3 and 12km NAM), instead of crashing against the West Virginia rocky towers. Whatever moisture that avoids West Virginia, should make it eastward through Maryland and southern PA much better structured.

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12z ICON drying it up pretty bad....

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

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9 minutes ago, avsguy said:

12z ICON drying it up pretty bad....

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

This type of event usually hits the mountains and rarely gets into the Old Dominion. 

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 It seems a Lil moisture starved but with the very cold temps. A little moisture could still mean a few inches. Major fluff factor here. High ratios I'm sure!

24 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

This type of event usually hits the mountains and rarely gets into the Old Dominion. 

If we could get just a little isentropic lift ahead of it. It may help with forcing and enhance  precipitation. .. maybe

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Sometimes these things can turn into Delmarva specials. :classic_biggrin:

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Hopefully some flakes can come of this..... and man isn't it so obvious how desperate I am of late??? :aqua:

Snow spreads Jan 30

Edited by avsguy

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35 minutes ago, avsguy said:

Hopefully some flakes can come of this..... and man isn't it so obvious how desperate I am of late??? :aqua:

Snow spreads Jan 30

Never been so excited for a C-2 event. Times are Desperate for sure

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My kids are off today (cold/dusting of snow), they are off tomorrow (cold), and they will likely have off Friday (snow).  3 days off for a little cold and a clipper event.  One year they had 20 days off for snow and cold.

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4 hours ago, wtkidz said:

This type of event usually hits the mountains and rarely gets into the Old Dominion. 

Just like we rarely get significant back end snows as the cold air filters in.  Last night was overdone by some, though NWS did correctly remove Spotsylvania from the WWA they had for the I95 corridor, which was actually as much about the rush hour timing as the amounts. Takes very little rush hour precip to create havoc here on a biblical scale.

Would be nice to see snow on Friday, but not expecting anything but a few flurries at most in Virginia. There isn't even a red letter L on the models for a center for the clipper. Looks to be all orographically driven precip to me. We are on the dry side of the Apps for that kind of snow.

 

 

Looking long range though, I may be looking back on this week as the last two best opportunities of the coldest part of winter. Pushing 60 by Tuesday? Just what kind of arctic outbreak is this anyway? :chicken_dance-176:

 

Edited by risingriver

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Looks like that this will be the last snow event before the warmup arrives. 😩

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