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SnowDude

Winter 2019-2020 | Outlooks and Discussion

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Looks like the winter of 2018-2019 might end up as the least snowiest on record for me. So I might as well start up the winter 2019-2020 thread. This is also my first time opening a thread!!!!! :classic_smile:

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On 1/29/2019 at 10:22 AM, Snobal said:

imo   you must be  within 5  days  to start a storm thread .  anything beyond  that is a fantasy 

 

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The big wild cards for next year are -

1) What does the PDO do?

2) Are we past the solar minimum? - i.e. rising solar activity

3) Is there finally an extended -NAO period in winter? It's been a while as of 1/30/19.

The -NAO winters seem to occur AFTER the solar minimum bottoms out with solar activity still low, that is why point two matters. Without the -NAO or a positive PDO, it will be hard for the East to be too cold.

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The upcoming pattern for early February is even MORE unfavorable for snow for my area. 😭😩😓😪 I hope the Winter of 2019-2020 will make up a lot for the lost snow for this crappy winter. The winter of 2019-2020 better be snowy!

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FWIW.

It will be interesting to see how this changes over the next 10 months or so. (Precip is EC all across the board.)

716C22E4-D7E7-4635-A086-F9DA5E105574.gif

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I'm seriously considering moving to Frisco, Colorado for next winter. 

I think 2019/20 will be a good snow year out west. 

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1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I'm seriously considering moving to Frisco, Colorado for next winter. 

I think 2019/20 will be a good snow year out west. 

...which means a crappy winter east.

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Everyone predicted more snow for my area and we have only gotten 1 inch total. I just wanted 1 friggen big snow while I'm working from home, I guess it was too much to ask. Now Feb temps seem to be rather warm with no sign of dipping back down into something more favorable for a couple inches. Several times this year I saw 3-5 inches in the forecast only for it to get here and be rain and/or flurries. Oh well, I'm hoping 2019-20 is better too.

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On 2/7/2019 at 8:55 AM, RobB said:

2/7 0Z NAEFS:

image.thumb.png.1c79a5791ea707b83f0b52180b767aa2.png

 

2/7 0Z Euro EPS 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

 

14-km EPS Global North America 2-m Temperature Anom(3).gif

Oops wrong winter thread, so why is a 2019 to 2020 winter thread needed now?  To soothe our feelings, and despair while we cry over a defeated and lost winter in the eyes of hard core snow weenies?  Now this is not directed to you Rob, I just see this as purely subjective to the egoism of our human nature to a reaction that we are all bound to in one way or another because of negative imagination or polarity of degenerative desires.  I fully understand that this winter is considered to be a major disaster from the point of view of east coast snow lovers without the consideration that while this group is a minority among the general population that seems so vocal - the majority of people along the east coast for the most part are loving the winter temperatures.  In fact the majority would be screaming if it constantly snows and the minority who would be happy would simply either argue with them, laugh at them, or be ignorant of them.  Human nature in the majority seem to want warmer temperatures. 

Philosophical/Psychology  Sources of Information that I utilize in my psychology: Georges Gurdjieff, CG Collingwood, Kazimerz Dabrowski, Jordan B. Peterson, Andrew M. Lobaczewski

Edited by Sneezy
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My completely amateur hunch prediction for 2019-20:

{Note: obviously this is pure tongue-in-cheek}

November through mid-December:  Mild and uneventful throughout the country.  Predictions of green Christmases show up and winter-lovers start already throwing in the towel en masse.  

Late-December:  Meteorologists on social media, most of them winter lovers, are excited like kids on Christmas morning and tell us that a "major SSW event" is in progress that promises to send wobbling PV lobes down the mid-latitudes in a few weeks, a.k.a. Eastern North America. 

January-February:  The rain spigot shuts off for weeks along the West Coast, Portland feels like San Diego, and Anchorage residents consign their real heavy coats to the closets.  Eastern North America gets "barney-ed" with purple, weeks-long streaks of daily double-digit negative departures and the oft-repeated phrase of 'reinforcing shots of Arctic air'.  Polar Vortex makes its rounds in the media again, and researchers come out of the woodwork to explain that this will happen more frequently. 

March-early April:  Spring predictions of "winter will drag on in the East, you'll just have to wait a little longer" will have made an appearance by March.  Opening few weeks of MLB games will be snowed-out in the Midwest and Northeast, reigniting social media debate about the length of the baseball season. 

Late April-May:  Temperatures jump from "heavy coats" to "shorts n' t-shirts" in a matter of days, once again completely skipping that span of sweatshirts and light jackets. 

 

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On 2/5/2019 at 12:28 PM, Gator said:

Everyone predicted more snow for my area and we have only gotten 1 inch total. I just wanted 1 friggen big snow while I'm working from home, I guess it was too much to ask. Now Feb temps seem to be rather warm with no sign of dipping back down into something more favorable for a couple inches. Several times this year I saw 3-5 inches in the forecast only for it to get here and be rain and/or flurries. Oh well, I'm hoping 2019-20 is better too.

The only snowfall forecasts you should take seriously are forecasts valid for the next 24 hours. In other words, snowfall forecasts beyond tomorrow shouldn't be taken seriously, they're mostly just forecasting disappointment. This is particularly relevant for TN where the stars have to align just right for a 'big one'. Unfortunately, if you are serious about seeing substantial snowfall on anything approaching a regular basis, you'll need to move farther north. 

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On 2/7/2019 at 9:15 AM, Sneezy said:

Oops wrong winter thread, so why is a 2019 to 2020 winter thread needed now?  To soothe our feelings, and despair while we cry over a defeated and lost winter in the eyes of hard core snow weenies?  Now this is not directed to you Rob, I just see this as purely subjective to the egoism of our human nature to a reaction that we are all bound to in one way or another because of negative imagination or polarity of degenerative desires.  I fully understand that this winter is considered to be a major disaster from the point of view of east coast snow lovers without the consideration that while this group is a minority among the general population that seems so vocal - the majority of people along the east coast for the most part are loving the winter temperatures.  In fact the majority would be screaming if it constantly snows and the minority who would be happy would simply either argue with them, laugh at them, or be ignorant of them.  Human nature in the majority seem to want warmer temperatures. 

Philosophical/Psychology  Sources of Information that I utilize in my psychology: Georges Gurdjieff, CG Collingwood, Kazimerz Dabrowski, Jordan B. Peterson, Andrew M. Lobaczewski

I just saw that.. LOL

 

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5 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

The only snowfall forecasts you should take seriously are forecasts valid for the next 24 hours. In other words, snowfall forecasts beyond tomorrow shouldn't be taken seriously, they're mostly just forecasting disappointment. This is particularly relevant for TN where the stars have to align just right for a 'big one'. Unfortunately, if you are serious about seeing substantial snowfall on anything approaching a regular basis, you'll need to move farther north. 

No we don't want a lot, 3-5 average is ok for me. Once I start commuting to work I'll be especially happy we don't get a lot. However, my wife and I still work for our companies back home in Florida remotely so we don't drive around much on a daily basis so I was just hoping for a big snow or two this year so the kids could play in it and build a snowman, maybe a little sledding etc. I'm planning on at least working from home for another year or two so maybe next year... The one great thing about being where we are is that we only have an 8-10 hour drive to major snow areas so we can get our fix when we want it.

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Long-term, large areas of the West tend to be (weakly) favored for warmer winters when the prior winter was warm in Nino 3.4, like 2018-19. These correlations are weak, but for a year out, it's pretty amazing that any correlation exists at all.

9JmXrKt.png

The years after low solar El Ninos are an interesting bunch too since 1930. 1931-32, 1954-55, 1964-65, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1995-96, 2007-08, 2010-11.

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10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Long-term, large areas of the West tend to be (weakly) favored for warmer winters when the prior winter was warm in Nino 3.4, like 2018-19. These correlations are weak, but for a year out, it's pretty amazing that any correlation exists at all.

9JmXrKt.png

The years after low solar El Ninos are an interesting bunch too since 1930. 1931-32, 1954-55, 1964-65, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1995-96, 2007-08, 2010-11.

I'll take 2010-2011 and call it a win compared to this year lol

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1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are two wnters that I certainly wouldn't mind repeating. Hard "no" for the back-loaded 2007-2008, though. I haven't had a colder-than-normal December since 2010, and December 2007 was warm and shitty. I don't know how 1987-1988 was in the South, but in Pittsburgh it was slightly colder, slightly drier and significantly less snowy than normal. I wasn't alive for 1977-1978, but I've heard it was epic.

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I'd go 50% Neutral, 40% El Nino, 10% La Nina for next year at this point, only because the El Nino doesn't really look like it is dying off immediately. The ocean is warming, not cooling, below the surface in Nino 3.4 right now.

If we have low solar and an El Nino next year, I'd expect a colder winter in the East, as people expected for this year, unless it goes to a Strong or East based El Nino. The math, not including this year is that 14/16 low solar El Ninos in Boston back to 1900 have under 45 inches of snow. That seems to be holding up just fine this year. The South would probably be very cold. El Ninos that follow El Ninos look pretty different nationally from the others.

 

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On 2/9/2019 at 10:45 AM, Gator said:

I'll take 2010-2011 and call it a win compared to this year lol

You and me both, though for some of us, it does not take much to "win" over this year.

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I’m hoping that this El Niño will make the winter of 2019-2020 extremely snowy. Especially after experiencing the pathetic winter of 2018-2019. Hopefully the El Niño will make up for the lost snowfall.

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Something to look for next year is whether the AMO is still cold looking. This cold ring / -AMO look by Africa has persisted for a year now, and is not consistent with the warm AMO phase anymore. I'd call it the "warmed up" cold AMO relative to the 1963-1994.

D0TY5phX4AAkuzZ.png

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I think we should take bets on which component will be the main pattern driver next winter. This was the MJO, what will next year be?...

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If we remain in a period of low solar activity and have an El Nino for the 2019-20 winter, that combination is unprecedented in the past 100 years.

I consider "low solar" to be July-Jun monthly solar activity to be under 50 or 55 sunspots. The "double El Ninos" have all featured one high solar and one low solar El Nino since 1920, or two high solar El Ninos.

2014-15, 2015-16 (90, 55)

1986, 1987 (16, 65)

1976, 1977 (23, 84)

1968, 1969 (156, 149)

1957, 1958 (282, 255)

1952, 1953 qualifies if you consider 1952-53 a El Nino, but I don't (36, 10)

1951, 1952 (63, 36)

1939, 1940, 1941 (126, 94, 77)

1929, 1930 (93, 46)

Since 1899, I'd say only 1900-01, 1914-15, and arguably 1953-54 were El Nino winters following an El Nino winter, when both winters had low solar. For a bunch of ancient winters, it is not a particularly cold look, even against modern normals.

 

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I can't say that the 2018-19 winter was bad for me, we're actually a bit above average here so far, I've just come to find out that 26" when nickeled and dimed doesn't satisfy my taste. I'm hoping to move to upstate New York next year after I graduate. If I do then winter 19-20 will be an interesting follow(and an interesting experience as a young forecaster). 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/6/2019 at 12:19 AM, Ingyball said:

I can't say that the 2018-19 winter was bad for me, we're actually a bit above average here so far, I've just come to find out that 26" when nickeled and dimed doesn't satisfy my taste. I'm hoping to move to upstate New York next year after I graduate. If I do then winter 19-20 will be an interesting follow(and an interesting experience as a young forecaster). 

Assuming you make the move, what do you plan to do in upstate NY? Other than get snowed on :6:

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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On 3/7/2019 at 6:25 PM, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Assuming you make the move, what do you plan to do in upstate NY? Other than get snowed on :6:

I'm hoping to find an internship as a forecaster. A year ago I had wanted to go into the private sector and really didn't think much about the NWS, but I had so much fun volunteering there this past Summer and winter that it's something I will be looking for to see if there's an opening(even if it's not in upstate NY) 

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