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SnowDude

Winter 2019-2020 | Outlooks and Discussion

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3 hours ago, NewEnglander said:

Anyone think the current set up (even though this was later in the year) is similar to 2002-2003? It didn't really have a good map for off the coast of Alaska so I couldn't check that. 2002-2003 on there.  Feb 2003 there was a  widespread 2 foot+ from a snowstorm.

I'm not entirely sure what you're asking here as the map you're showing is the SST anomalies for '01-'02, but here's an apples to apples comparison of August 1-15th of this year and of 2002:

2019.gif.9220c3f04b9d6a30473297096ffd5625.gif2002.gif.63acdadc73d67c75cc5a4303ebdba507.gif

There are quite a few differences from 2002 to this year. Also, 2002-2003 was also a moderate El Nino year, something that has a near zero probability of occurring this upcoming winter.

Edited by weather_boy2010
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I've been looking at a blend of 1953-54, 1992-93, 1995-96, 1995-96, 2004-05, 2009-10 lately. It respects the warmth off the Gulf of Alaska but recognizes that the warmth is closer to the NW US (south of 2013). As a blend, it is cold east / warm West in the Nino zones. Low-solar (35 sunspots annualized as a blend). After an El Nino as a blend. Tried to pick years when Nino 4 is nearly 5C warmer in winter than Nino 1.2. AMO is warm, probably not warm enough in the blend. Same for Nino 4 - I think it will be around 28.9C. My target was 28.9C, 26.6C, 25.5C, 23.9C for the four Nino Zones, near record warm, neutral, neutral, cool.

Means are 28.10C, 26.50C, 25.60C, 24.20C

Est 4.00 3.40 3 1.2
2019 28.90 26.60 25.50 23.90
1953 28.37 27.00 25.73 23.25
1992 28.48 26.44 25.74 24.55
1995 27.85 25.65 24.94 23.85
1995 27.85 25.65 24.94 23.85
2004 29.16 27.34 26.07 24.29
2009 29.41 28.34 26.85 24.83
Blend 28.52 26.74 25.71 24.10

On net, the warmer AMO and Nino 4 than my blend would warm the North and California, and cool off the SE, particularly since the PDO will probably be more positive than depicted.

DJF ONI AMO Sun ONIp MOD PDO MONS
1953 0.70 0.162 9.5 0.50 0.34 -0.79 1.53
1992 0.20 -0.227 103.3 1.60 0.38 0.61 5.02
1995 -0.90 0.029 14.9 1.00 -0.20 0.62 3.61
1995 -0.90 0.029 14.9 1.00 -0.20 0.62 3.61
2004 0.60 0.222 55.3 0.30 0.48 0.47 4.06
2009 1.60 0.200 13.2 -0.80 0.77 0.43 3.96
Blend 0.22 0.069 35.2 0.60 0.26 0.33 3.63
2019 0.10 0.150 10.0 0.90 0.20 0.75 3.75

Image

Raw blend looks like this, although Nino 4 and the AMO argue for a cold West / warm East look in Dec, before cold takes over in the SE.

5ssSbHM.png

This isn't my forecast, I need to see what solution the models settle on, and if September looks anything like the years I selected. But I think it's heading toward something like this. I'll have my actual forecast out by October 10. These transitions from cold Junes to warm Augusts are fairly telling nationally, they tend to happen when Nino 4 is much warmer than Nino 1.2.

g02J6ET.png

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