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Winter_warlock

February 9-10, 2019 | Non-Event | Potential Snow

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Looks like a disturbance slides thru mid Atlantic on 9th to 10th. GFS shows this. Could be something to watch!!

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

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I’m not sure what exact date this pertains to specifically, but the GEFS ensembles are going nuts around the 12th to 17th timeframe.  Lots of BIG hits with plenty of snow showing up in that span from the Mid Atlantic up thru the NE

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5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I’m not sure what exact date this pertains to specifically, but the GEFS ensembles are going nuts around the 12th to 17th timeframe.  Lots of BIG hits with plenty of snow showing up in that span from the Mid Atlantic up thru the NE

I saw that!! Looks like could be a lot of fun and games  for us the second week in feb!!! And this thread pertains to the Feb 9th to 10th event  that comes after the over running event on 7th to 8th  😊

Edited by Winter_warlock

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19 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

I saw that!! Looks like could be a lot of fun and games  for us the second week in feb!!! And this thread pertains to the Feb 9th to 10th event  that comes after the over running event on 7th to 8th  😊

 Yeah I knew that about this thread.  I just can’t figure out exactly what dates are the jackpot on the GEFS. Too many good hits

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46 minutes ago, Winter_warlock said:

Looks like a disturbance slides thru mid Atlantic on 9th to 10th. GFS shows this. Could be something to watch!!

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

Just a hint for next time.

Try to open threads using a blend of models and ensembles.

By using only one mode to start a thread, especially the GFS (retiring) or the CMC, you run a huge risk of end up with a thread that may have no storm at all later on when the time frames get closer, as the models may come to the conclusion that the time frame will not feature a storm.

For instance, the ECMWF so far has nothing on the Feb 9-10 time frame, and even if it had, and we used only it to start a thread the risks would still be high that in the end the time frame could possibly feature no storm.

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10 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Fat lady's singing according to Twitter.   

Well see

Ummmmm.........

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23 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

 

Just a hint for next time.

Try to open threads using a blend of models and ensembles.

By using only one mode to start a thread, especially the GFS (retiring) or the CMC, you run a huge risk of end up with a thread that may have no storm at all later on when the time frames get closer, as the models may come to the conclusion that the time frame will not feature a storm.

For instance, the ECMWF so far has nothing on the Feb 9-10 time frame, and even if it had, and we used only it to start a thread the risks would still be high that in the end the time frame could possibly feature no storm.

IMO, The euro has been terrible so far this winter.   I actually prefer the gfs over the euro atm until proven otherwise.  According to the euro I should have a Sierra Nevada snowpack, but I gfs snowpack instead. 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

 

Just a hint for next time.

Try to open threads using a blend of models and ensembles.

By using only one mode to start a thread, especially the GFS (retiring) or the CMC, you run a huge risk of end up with a thread that may have no storm at all later on when the time frames get closer, as the models may come to the conclusion that the time frame will not feature a storm.

For instance, the ECMWF so far has nothing on the Feb 9-10 time frame, and even if it had, and we used only it to start a thread the risks would still be high that in the end the time frame could possibly feature no storm.

OK will do :) sry 

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I guess if the models say it will snow often enough the odds will eventually turn in their favor once or maybe twice and they will if nothing else get lucky and it may happen. ::ColdBreath:

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12Z EPS member #41

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020112_240_518_215_m41.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020112_222_518_215_m41.png

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uh oh. The snow drought has cause cherry season to emerge :classic_laugh:

1 hour ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EPS member #41

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020112_240_518_215_m41.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020112_222_518_215_m41.png

 

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4 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

Fat lady's singing according to Twitter.   

Well see

Not sure where you're getting that info...but definitely not looking like Feb '18 from what I'm seeing currently, but still only Feb 1. That said, PNA not looking like a friend for more "southern" locations though (aka outside of northern new england/ny)...

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5 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

Fat lady's singing according to Twitter.   

Well see

 

8208780.jpg

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Just cant catch a break

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png

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12Z GFS snow map for this time period.

gfs_asnow24_neus_28.png

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4 hours ago, suzook said:

Just cant catch a break

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.pngfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png

Nice 1043H suppresses, know what you mean as our weather for this time frame keeps changing from cool and snowy to sunshine according to TWC app. Then 49f on the following Monday with rain. We will see as then next couple days are sunny and warm with some rain Wednesday and Thursday.

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12 GFS Wow 157H that comes down as 153H and the trough is wide, no wonder the storm cannot come north.

C91768B1-83CA-452C-B3E3-9F4A08B2316F.png

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After this the GFS doesn’t show much through 18 February except for some rain, not even for NE but VA gets a good amount of snow for this time frame from 12Z GFS precipitation and 24hr. snowfall.

59BC0297-3956-4A6B-894B-E822FBDDD734.png

E827FDA1-B461-4655-A005-2EDEDFBCEF49.png

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2 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z GFS snow map for this time period.

gfs_asnow24_neus_28.png

Sorry didn’t see your post

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No.  Plz don't take this from us down here.  We've had nothing all year except that one storm in December.
I say that but let see how it changes over the next week. :(

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1 minute ago, Kohler7 said:

No.  Plz don't take this from us down here.  We've had nothing all year except that one storm in December.
I say that but let see how it changes over the next week. :(

Lol.... But..you had an epic storm in December. We've had not much of anything. Either way... May the best person win!!! EVERYONE!!!!! 

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9 minutes ago, Kohler7 said:

No.  Plz don't take this from us down here.  We've had nothing all year except that one storm in December.
I say that but let see how it changes over the next week. :(

I don’t think anyone has really had any snow. Certainly wouldn’t go towards filling our snow “coffers” up north  

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2 hours ago, Snowadelphia said:

I don’t think anyone has really had any snow. Certainly wouldn’t go towards filling our snow “coffers” up north  

Outside of maine and the boondocks upstate  its been kinda crappy for snow.  Sadly not even cold enough for pond hockey on li, last yr was pretty good for it for a bit.

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