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knorthern_knight

February 6 - 8, 2019 | Freezing rain, pellets, rain, snow followed by freeze

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The GFS text forecast has widespread freezing rain along the Quebec-Windsor corridor.

  • The event starts off with either pellets or freezing rain.
  • Temperatures warm up and precipitation changes to rain
  • Temperatures drop and precipitation changes to snow
  • Temperatures keep dropping

The last item worries me. I don't know if it qualifies as a "flash freeze", but it could be ugly. You'll have water from rain plus melted snow, which will all freeze overnight. Here's the GFS text forecast...

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  3FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   69 02/06 09Z   25     15    0.00         26     25    0.0            
   72 02/06 12Z   26     21    0.02 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.02      
   75 02/06 15Z   28     23    0.02 -FZRN   28     26    0.0  0.04      
   78 02/06 18Z   29     25    0.00 -FZRN   29     26    0.0            
   81 02/06 21Z   30     26    0.01 -FZRN   30     29    0.0  0.01      
   84 02/07 00Z   29     26    0.01 -FZRN   30     29    0.0  0.02      
   87 02/07 03Z   29     26    0.00 -FZRN   29     29    0.0            
   90 02/07 06Z   30     28    0.01 -FZRN   30     29    0.0  0.01      
   93 02/07 09Z   33     31    0.18 RA      33     30    0.0  0.19      
   96 02/07 12Z   34     33    0.32 RA      34     30    0.0  0.51      
   99 02/07 15Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.53      
  102 02/07 18Z   36     36    0.00 -RA     37     34    0.0            
  105 02/07 21Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.01      
  108 02/08 00Z   44     43    0.00 -RA     44     38    0.0            
  111 02/08 03Z   43     43    0.00 -RA     45     43    0.0            
  114 02/08 06Z   44     43    0.08 -RA     45     42    0.0  0.08      
  117 02/08 09Z   31     29    0.17 FZRN    43     30    0.4  0.25    0.4
  120 02/08 12Z   28     25    0.03 -SN     43     28    0.3  0.28    0.7
  123 02/08 15Z   23     18    0.00         28     23    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  3FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   69 02/06 09Z   22     12    0.00         22     21    0.0            
   72 02/06 12Z   24     19    0.01 -PL     24     21    0.0  0.01      
   75 02/06 15Z   25     21    0.00 -PL     25     24    0.0            
   78 02/06 18Z   26     22    0.01 -FZRN   26     24    0.0  0.01      
   81 02/06 21Z   25     22    0.02 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.03      
   84 02/07 00Z   25     21    0.01 -FZRN   26     24    0.0  0.04      
   87 02/07 03Z   25     22    0.01 -FZRN   25     25    0.0  0.05      
   90 02/07 06Z   25     23    0.00 -FZRN   25     25    0.0            
   93 02/07 09Z   28     26    0.03 -FZRN   28     25    0.0  0.03      
   96 02/07 12Z   31     30    0.24 -FZRN   31     25    0.0  0.27      
   99 02/07 15Z   31     31    0.07 -FZRN   32     31    0.0  0.34      
  102 02/07 18Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.35      
  105 02/07 21Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.36      
  108 02/08 00Z   38     38    0.00 -RA     38     35    0.0            
  111 02/08 03Z   41     41    0.00 -RA     43     38    0.0            
  114 02/08 06Z   41     41    0.01 -RA     43     38    0.0  0.01      
  117 02/08 09Z   34     33    0.14 -RA     42     34    0.0  0.15      
  120 02/08 12Z   28     23    0.03 -SN     42     28    0.3  0.18    0.3
  123 02/08 15Z   26     20    0.00         28     26    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  3FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   72 02/06 12Z   27     19    0.00         27     24    0.0            
   75 02/06 15Z   27     22    0.01 -FZRN   27     27    0.0  0.01      
   78 02/06 18Z   28     23    0.01 -FZRN   28     27    0.0  0.02      
   81 02/06 21Z   28     25    0.01 -FZRN   28     28    0.0  0.03      
   84 02/07 00Z   28     25    0.00 -FZRN   28     28    0.0            
   87 02/07 03Z   28     25    0.01 -FZRN   28     27    0.0  0.01      
   90 02/07 06Z   28     26    0.01 -FZRN   28     27    0.0  0.02      
   93 02/07 09Z   30     29    0.05 -FZRN   30     28    0.0  0.07      
   96 02/07 12Z   32     31    0.26 RA      32     28    0.0  0.33      
   99 02/07 15Z   33     32    0.10 -RA     33     31    0.0  0.43      
  102 02/07 18Z   35     35    0.00 -RA     35     31    0.0            
  105 02/07 21Z   37     37    0.00 -RA     37     35    0.0            
  108 02/08 00Z   40     40    0.00 -RA     40     35    0.0            
  111 02/08 03Z   42     41    0.01 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.01      
  114 02/08 06Z   43     43    0.00 -RA     43     40    0.0            
  117 02/08 09Z   41     40    0.10 -RA     44     41    0.0  0.10      
  120 02/08 12Z   32     28    0.06 -SN     44     32    0.5  0.16    0.5
  123 02/08 15Z   31     23    0.01 -SN     32     31    0.0  0.17      
  126 02/08 18Z   25     16    0.00 -SN     32     25    0.0            
  129 02/08 21Z   20     10    0.00         25     20    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  3FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   69 02/06 09Z   24     17    0.00         24     21    0.0            
   72 02/06 12Z   26     22    0.01 -PL     26     21    0.0  0.01      
   75 02/06 15Z   26     22    0.00 -PL     26     26    0.0            
   78 02/06 18Z   25     21    0.01 -PL     26     26    0.0  0.01      
   81 02/06 21Z   26     21    0.01 -PL     26     25    0.0  0.02      
   84 02/07 00Z   25     21    0.01 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.03      
   87 02/07 03Z   26     21    0.00 -FZRN   26     25    0.0            
   90 02/07 06Z   26     22    0.01 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.01      
   93 02/07 09Z   28     26    0.02 -FZRN   28     26    0.0  0.03      
   96 02/07 12Z   29     28    0.14 -FZRN   30     26    0.0  0.17      
   99 02/07 15Z   31     30    0.10 -RA     31     29    0.0  0.27      
  102 02/07 18Z   33     32    0.01 -RA     33     29    0.0  0.28      
  105 02/07 21Z   34     33    0.00 -RA     34     33    0.0            
  108 02/08 00Z   35     35    0.00         35     33    0.0            
  111 02/08 03Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.01      
  114 02/08 06Z   40     40    0.00 -RA     40     35    0.0            
  117 02/08 09Z   40     39    0.07 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.07      
  120 02/08 12Z   32     27    0.05 -RA     42     32    0.2  0.12    0.2
  123 02/08 15Z   31     22    0.00 -SN     32     30    0.0            
  126 02/08 18Z   27     16    0.00 -SN     32     27    0.0            
  129 02/08 21Z   24     13    0.00         27     24    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  3FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   93 02/07 09Z   17     14    0.00         17     15    0.0            
   96 02/07 12Z   18     16    0.01         18     15    0.0  0.01      
   99 02/07 15Z   19     18    0.04 -PL     19     18    0.0  0.05      
  102 02/07 18Z   21     20    0.05 -PL     21     18    0.0  0.10      
  105 02/07 21Z   24     22    0.01 -FZRN   24     21    0.0  0.11      
  108 02/08 00Z   24     23    0.01 -FZRN   24     21    0.0  0.12      
  111 02/08 03Z   26     25    0.01 -FZRN   26     24    0.0  0.13      
  114 02/08 06Z   26     26    0.00 -FZRN   27     24    0.0            
  117 02/08 09Z   28     27    0.01 -FZRN   28     26    0.0  0.01      
  120 02/08 12Z   32     32    0.08 -FZRN   32     26    0.0  0.09      
  123 02/08 15Z   30     29    0.14 -FZRN   34     30    0.1  0.23    0.1
  126 02/08 18Z   22     18    0.00 -SN     34     22    0.1          0.2
  129 02/08 21Z   17     12    0.00         22     17    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  3FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   96 02/07 12Z   15     13    0.00         15     14    0.0            
   99 02/07 15Z   17     15    0.02 -PL     17     15    0.0  0.02      
  102 02/07 18Z   20     19    0.11 -FZRN   20     15    0.0  0.13      
  105 02/07 21Z   25     24    0.05 -FZRN   25     20    0.0  0.18      
  108 02/08 00Z   27     26    0.03 -FZRN   27     20    0.0  0.21      
  111 02/08 03Z   28     27    0.00 -FZRN   28     27    0.0            
  114 02/08 06Z   27     27    0.01 -FZRN   28     27    0.0  0.01      
  117 02/08 09Z   27     27    0.01 -FZRN   27     27    0.0  0.02      
  120 02/08 12Z   30     30    0.06 -FZRN   30     27    0.0  0.08      
  123 02/08 15Z   35     35    0.18 RA      35     30    0.0  0.26      
  126 02/08 18Z   33     32    0.05 -RA     35     30    0.2  0.31    0.2
  129 02/08 21Z   23     19    0.00         33     23    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  3FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   99 02/07 15Z   21     18    0.00         21     15    0.0            
  102 02/07 18Z   23     21    0.03 -SN     23     15    0.3  0.03    0.3
  105 02/07 21Z   25     23    0.06 -SN     25     23    0.4  0.09    0.7
  108 02/08 00Z   26     25    0.09 -SN     26     23    0.4  0.18    1.1
  111 02/08 03Z   28     27    0.04 -SN     28     26    0.2  0.22    1.3
  114 02/08 06Z   28     27    0.00 -FZRN   29     26    0.0            
  117 02/08 09Z   28     28    0.00 -SN     29     28    0.0            
  120 02/08 12Z   29     29    0.05 -FZRN   30     28    0.0  0.05      
  123 02/08 15Z   30     30    0.11 -FZRN   31     29    0.0  0.16      
  126 02/08 18Z   32     32    0.25 SN      32     29    1.1  0.41    1.1
  129 02/08 21Z   32     30    0.06 -SN     33     31    0.4  0.47    1.5
  132 02/09 00Z   19     14    0.02 -SN     33     19    0.4  0.49    1.9
  135 02/09 03Z   10      5    0.00         19     10    0.0

 

 

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Assuming we get freezing rain as projected in the models, what category do you think areas will fall under in this chart for this event? Wind is a big factor too, what do you guys think? I'm personally thinking Ice Damage Index 1 since winds seem to be around 20-25 km/h with 10 mm accretion? Still not great, I'm no expert though so wondering what other peoples opinions are. 

Freezing Rain Damage Chart.jpg

Edited by robv187

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The GFS text still has some freezing rain, but it's backing off on the amounts. Montreal is all pellets, no freezing rain. I don't expect trees and hydro wires to be falling down along the Quebec-Windsor Corridor, unless the forecast changes significantly. What I'm worried about is the rain, and resulting melt that follows soon after, followed by the temperature drop after that. Roads and sidewalks could get slick. Here's the latest forecast...

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  4FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   45 02/06 09Z   27     18    0.00         28     27    0.0            
   48 02/06 12Z   26     22    0.05 -FZRN   28     25    0.0  0.05      
   51 02/06 15Z   28     24    0.02 -FZRN   28     26    0.0  0.07      
   54 02/06 18Z   29     25    0.03 -FZRN   29     26    0.0  0.10      
   57 02/06 21Z   29     26    0.03 -FZRN   30     29    0.0  0.13      
   60 02/07 00Z   29     26    0.01 -FZRN   30     29    0.0  0.14      
   63 02/07 03Z   30     27    0.00         30     29    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  4FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   45 02/06 09Z   23     12    0.00         23     23    0.0            
   48 02/06 12Z   25     19    0.01 -PL     25     23    0.0  0.01      
   51 02/06 15Z   26     22    0.01 -PL     26     25    0.0  0.02      
   54 02/06 18Z   25     21    0.02 -FZRN   26     24    0.0  0.04      
   57 02/06 21Z   25     21    0.01 -FZRN   25     24    0.0  0.05      
   60 02/07 00Z   25     23    0.02 -FZRN   25     24    0.0  0.07      
   63 02/07 03Z   25     23    0.01 -FZRN   25     25    0.0  0.08      
   66 02/07 06Z   27     25    0.00         27     25    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  4FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   45 02/06 09Z   26     16    0.00         26     25    0.0            
   48 02/06 12Z   27     21    0.01 -FZRN   27     25    0.0  0.01      
   51 02/06 15Z   28     22    0.01 -FZRN   28     27    0.0  0.02      
   54 02/06 18Z   27     22    0.02 -FZRN   28     27    0.0  0.04      
   57 02/06 21Z   27     24    0.02 -FZRN   27     27    0.0  0.06      
   60 02/07 00Z   28     26    0.03 -FZRN   28     27    0.0  0.09      
   63 02/07 03Z   29     28    0.03 -FZRN   29     28    0.0  0.12      
   66 02/07 06Z   30     28    0.01 -FZRN   30     28    0.0  0.13      
   69 02/07 09Z   30     28    0.00 -FZRN   30     29    0.0            
   72 02/07 12Z   30     29    0.00         30     29    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  4FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   48 02/06 12Z   26     21    0.00         26     23    0.0            
   51 02/06 15Z   26     21    0.00 -PL     26     26    0.0            
   54 02/06 18Z   25     20    0.01 -PL     26     25    0.0  0.01      
   57 02/06 21Z   26     21    0.01 -PL     26     25    0.0  0.02      
   60 02/07 00Z   26     23    0.03 -FZRN   27     25    0.0  0.05      
   63 02/07 03Z   27     24    0.03 -FZRN   27     26    0.0  0.08      
   66 02/07 06Z   27     25    0.01 -FZRN   27     26    0.0  0.09      
   69 02/07 09Z   27     25    0.00 -FZRN   27     27    0.0            
   72 02/07 12Z   28     26    0.00 -FZRN   28     27    0.0            
   75 02/07 15Z   32     30    0.00         32     28    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  4FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   63 02/07 03Z   16     13    0.00         17     16    0.0            
   66 02/07 06Z   17     14    0.01         17     16    0.0  0.01      
   69 02/07 09Z   18     16    0.01 -PL     18     17    0.0  0.02      
   72 02/07 12Z   20     18    0.01 -PL     20     17    0.0  0.03      
   75 02/07 15Z   22     21    0.01 -FZRN   22     20    0.0  0.04      
   78 02/07 18Z   26     25    0.00 -FZRN   26     20    0.0            
   81 02/07 21Z   28     27    0.00 -FZRN   28     26    0.0            
   84 02/08 00Z   29     29    0.01 -FZRN   29     26    0.0  0.01      
   87 02/08 03Z   32     32    0.08 -RA     32     30    0.0  0.09      
   90 02/08 06Z   36     36    0.15 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.24      
   93 02/08 09Z   41     41    0.05 -RA     41     36    0.0  0.29      
   96 02/08 12Z   39     37    0.01 -RA     44     36    0.0  0.30      
   99 02/08 15Z   34     28    0.00         39     34    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  4FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   66 02/07 06Z   15     13    0.00         15     13    0.0            
   69 02/07 09Z   17     15    0.01 -SN     17     15    0.0  0.01      
   72 02/07 12Z   18     17    0.01 -PL     18     15    0.0  0.02      
   75 02/07 15Z   22     21    0.01 -PL     22     18    0.0  0.03      
   78 02/07 18Z   27     26    0.00         27     18    0.0            
   81 02/07 21Z   28     28    0.00         28     27    0.0            
   84 02/08 00Z   30     29    0.00         30     27    0.0            
   87 02/08 03Z   33     33    0.03 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.03      
   90 02/08 06Z   35     35    0.23 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.26      
   93 02/08 09Z   36     36    0.07 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.33      
   96 02/08 12Z   42     41    0.07 -RA     42     35    0.0  0.40      
   99 02/08 15Z   38     32    0.01 -RA     42     38    0.0  0.41      
  102 02/08 18Z   34     26    0.00 -SN     42     34    0.0            
  105 02/08 21Z   31     21    0.00         34     31    0.0            
  108 02/09 00Z   27     17    0.01 -SN     34     27    0.0  0.01      
  111 02/09 03Z   19      7    0.00 -SN     27     19    0.0            
  114 02/09 06Z   13      2    0.00         27     13    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  4FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   12 02/05 00Z   26     24    0.00         31     24    0.0            
   15 02/05 03Z   29     28    0.01 -FZRN   29     26    0.0  0.01      
   18 02/05 06Z   31     30    0.04 -FZRN   31     26    0.0  0.05      
   21 02/05 09Z   34     34    0.11 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.16      
   24 02/05 12Z   36     36    0.11 -RA     37     31    0.0  0.27      
   27 02/05 15Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.29      
   30 02/05 18Z   35     35    0.04 -SN     36     35    0.1  0.33    0.1
   33 02/05 21Z   25     20    0.02 -SN     36     25    0.4  0.35    0.5
   36 02/06 00Z   17     12    0.00 -SN     36     17    0.0            
   39 02/06 03Z   13      9    0.00         17     13    0.0

 

 

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Im wondering if the models will do like they did for this one , over estimating the cold air and we will end with more freezing rain than rain.

Edited by Stl

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The 00z NAM is showing considerable ice accumulations into Friday. Historically this sort of thing is right down to the wire.

 

 

Screenshot_20190204-223851~2.png

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The GFS text was delayed last night, so I went to bed, and I'm posting it now. The GFS is calling for London/Kitchener/Hamilton to get noticable amounts of freezing rain. Toronto is forecast to see mostly pellets, rather than freezing rain. Ottawa/Montreal/Quebec get off more lightly. The forecast...

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   33 02/06 09Z   27     16    0.00         28     27    0.0            
   36 02/06 12Z   26     24    0.13 -PL     28     25    0.0  0.13      
   39 02/06 15Z   29     27    0.22 FZRN    29     26    0.0  0.35      
   42 02/06 18Z   29     27    0.03 -FZRN   29     26    0.0  0.38      
   45 02/06 21Z   30     29    0.00 -FZRN   30     29    0.0            
   48 02/07 00Z   29     27    0.00 -FZRN   31     29    0.0            
   51 02/07 03Z   29     28    0.00         30     29    0.0            
   54 02/07 06Z   29     27    0.00         30     29    0.0            
   57 02/07 09Z   29     28    0.00         29     28    0.0            
   60 02/07 12Z   31     30    0.00         31     28    0.0            
   63 02/07 15Z   33     33    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   66 02/07 18Z   38     38    0.00         38     31    0.0            
   69 02/07 21Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.04      
   72 02/08 00Z   39     39    0.48 RA      39     37    0.0  0.52      
   75 02/08 03Z   40     39    0.05 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.57      
   78 02/08 06Z   47     47    0.03 -RA     48     39    0.0  0.60      
   81 02/08 09Z   41     36    0.04 -TSRA   50     41    0.0  0.64      
   84 02/08 12Z   31     24    0.01 -SN     50     31    0.0  0.65      
   87 02/08 15Z   27     18    0.01 -SN     31     27    0.0  0.66      
   90 02/08 18Z   27     16    0.01 -SN     31     27    0.0  0.67      
   93 02/08 21Z   23     12    0.01 -SN     27     23    0.0  0.68      
   96 02/09 00Z   18      8    0.00 -SN     27     18    0.0            
   99 02/09 03Z   16      4    0.00         18     16    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   33 02/06 09Z   24     14    0.00         24     24    0.0            
   36 02/06 12Z   25     22    0.03 -PL     25     24    0.0  0.03      
   39 02/06 15Z   24     22    0.15 -PL     24     24    0.0  0.18      
   42 02/06 18Z   25     23    0.07 -FZRN   25     24    0.0  0.25      
   45 02/06 21Z   25     24    0.01 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.26      
   48 02/07 00Z   25     24    0.00 -FZRN   26     25    0.0            
   51 02/07 03Z   24     23    0.00         25     24    0.0            
   54 02/07 06Z   25     23    0.00         25     24    0.0            
   57 02/07 09Z   25     24    0.00         25     25    0.0            
   60 02/07 12Z   26     25    0.00         26     25    0.0            
   63 02/07 15Z   30     29    0.00         30     26    0.0            
   66 02/07 18Z   35     35    0.00         35     26    0.0            
   69 02/07 21Z   36     35    0.03 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.03      
   72 02/08 00Z   37     36    0.29 RA      37     35    0.0  0.32      
   75 02/08 03Z   38     37    0.18 RA      38     36    0.0  0.50      
   78 02/08 06Z   45     45    0.02 -RA     45     36    0.0  0.52      
   81 02/08 09Z   45     43    0.04 -TSRA   48     44    0.0  0.56      
   84 02/08 12Z   31     24    0.00 -SN     48     31    0.0            
   87 02/08 15Z   28     18    0.00 -SN     31     28    0.0            
   90 02/08 18Z   27     16    0.01 -SN     31     27    0.2  0.01    0.2
   93 02/08 21Z   24     13    0.01 -SN     27     24    0.0  0.02      
   96 02/09 00Z   20      9    0.00 -SN     27     20    0.0            
   99 02/09 03Z   17      5    0.00         20     17    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   36 02/06 12Z   27     21    0.00         28     26    0.0            
   39 02/06 15Z   27     26    0.24 FZRN    27     25    0.0  0.24      
   42 02/06 18Z   27     26    0.21 FZRN    28     25    0.0  0.45      
   45 02/06 21Z   28     27    0.01 -FZRN   28     26    0.0  0.46      
   48 02/07 00Z   28     27    0.00 -FZRN   28     26    0.0            
   51 02/07 03Z   29     28    0.00 -FZRN   29     28    0.0            
   54 02/07 06Z   28     27    0.00         29     28    0.0            
   57 02/07 09Z   29     28    0.00 -FZRN   29     28    0.0            
   60 02/07 12Z   29     29    0.00 -FZRN   29     28    0.0            
   63 02/07 15Z   31     31    0.00         31     29    0.0            
   66 02/07 18Z   34     34    0.00         34     29    0.0            
   69 02/07 21Z   35     35    0.07 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.07      
   72 02/08 00Z   37     37    0.33 RA      37     33    0.0  0.40      
   75 02/08 03Z   37     37    0.42 RA      38     37    0.0  0.82      
   78 02/08 06Z   46     46    0.03 RA      46     37    0.0  0.85      
   81 02/08 09Z   49     48    0.04 -TSRA   50     46    0.0  0.89      
   84 02/08 12Z   35     28    0.00 -SN     50     35    0.0            
   87 02/08 15Z   30     21    0.01 -SN     35     30    0.0  0.01      
   90 02/08 18Z   29     18    0.01 -SN     35     29    0.0  0.02      
   93 02/08 21Z   27     16    0.01 -SN     29     27    0.0  0.03      
   96 02/09 00Z   22     10    0.00 -SN     29     22    0.0            
   99 02/09 03Z   19      6    0.00         22     19    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   36 02/06 12Z   26     20    0.00         26     24    0.0            
   39 02/06 15Z   24     23    0.11 -PL     26     24    0.0  0.11      
   42 02/06 18Z   25     22    0.11 -PL     26     24    0.0  0.22      
   45 02/06 21Z   26     24    0.01 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.23      
   48 02/07 00Z   26     24    0.00 -FZRN   26     25    0.0            
   51 02/07 03Z   25     23    0.01 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.01      
   54 02/07 06Z   26     23    0.00 -FZRN   26     25    0.0            
   57 02/07 09Z   27     24    0.00         27     26    0.0            
   60 02/07 12Z   28     25    0.00         28     26    0.0            
   63 02/07 15Z   30     28    0.00         30     27    0.0            
   66 02/07 18Z   32     31    0.00 -RA     32     27    0.0            
   69 02/07 21Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     32    0.0  0.02      
   72 02/08 00Z   35     35    0.23 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.25      
   75 02/08 03Z   38     38    0.28 RA      38     35    0.0  0.53      
   78 02/08 06Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     35    0.0  0.54      
   81 02/08 09Z   47     46    0.02 -RA     47     41    0.0  0.56      
   84 02/08 12Z   35     27    0.00 -SN     47     35    0.0            
   87 02/08 15Z   31     21    0.00         35     31    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   48 02/07 00Z   16     13    0.00         18     16    0.0            
   51 02/07 03Z   16     14    0.01 -SN     16     16    0.0  0.01      
   54 02/07 06Z   16     14    0.00 -SN     17     16    0.0            
   57 02/07 09Z   18     17    0.00         18     17    0.0            
   60 02/07 12Z   20     18    0.00         19     17    0.0            
   63 02/07 15Z   23     21    0.00         22     20    0.0            
   66 02/07 18Z   25     24    0.01 -FZRN   25     20    0.0  0.01      
   69 02/07 21Z   26     25    0.00 -FZRN   26     25    0.0            
   72 02/08 00Z   28     27    0.01 -FZRN   28     25    0.0  0.01      
   75 02/08 03Z   32     32    0.06 -FZRN   32     28    0.0  0.07      
   78 02/08 06Z   36     36    0.10 -RA     36     28    0.0  0.17      
   81 02/08 09Z   38     38    0.06 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.23      
   84 02/08 12Z   42     42    0.02 -RA     42     36    0.0  0.25      
   87 02/08 15Z   40     36    0.01 -RA     45     40    0.0  0.26      
   90 02/08 18Z   35     28    0.00 -SN     45     35    0.0            
   93 02/08 21Z   32     23    0.01 -SN     35     32    0.0  0.01      
   96 02/09 00Z   26     18    0.01 -SN     35     26    0.0  0.02      
   99 02/09 03Z   20     10    0.00 -SN     26     20    0.0            
  102 02/09 06Z   15      6    0.00         26     15    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   48 02/07 00Z   13     11    0.00         14     13    0.0            
   51 02/07 03Z   15     13    0.00 -SN     15     13    0.0            
   54 02/07 06Z   17     15    0.01 -SN     17     13    0.2  0.01    0.2
   57 02/07 09Z   18     17    0.01 -SN     18     17    0.0  0.02      
   60 02/07 12Z   19     18    0.01 -SN     19     17    0.0  0.03      
   63 02/07 15Z   21     21    0.01 -SN     21     19    0.0  0.04      
   66 02/07 18Z   26     25    0.00 -FZRN   26     19    0.0            
   69 02/07 21Z   28     27    0.01 -FZRN   28     25    0.0  0.01      
   72 02/08 00Z   29     29    0.01 -FZRN   29     25    0.0  0.02      
   75 02/08 03Z   33     32    0.01 -RA     33     29    0.0  0.03      
   78 02/08 06Z   35     35    0.16 -RA     35     29    0.0  0.19      
   81 02/08 09Z   37     36    0.12 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.31      
   84 02/08 12Z   38     37    0.02 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.33      
   87 02/08 15Z   41     41    0.01         42     37    0.0  0.34      
   90 02/08 18Z   38     30    0.00 -SN     42     37    0.0            
   93 02/08 21Z   34     24    0.00         38     34    0.0            
   96 02/09 00Z   30     20    0.00         38     30    0.0            
   99 02/09 03Z   25     15    0.01 -SN     30     25    0.0  0.01      
  102 02/09 06Z   20      9    0.00 -SN     30     20    0.0            
  105 02/09 09Z   12      0    0.00         20     12    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
    0 02/05 00Z   26     25    0.00       ****   ****    0.0            
    3 02/05 03Z   30     29    0.06 -FZRN   30     26    0.0  0.06      
    6 02/05 06Z   31     31    0.03 -FZRN   31     26    0.0  0.09      
    9 02/05 09Z   35     35    0.13 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.22      
   12 02/05 12Z   37     37    0.17 RA      37     31    0.0  0.39      
   15 02/05 15Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.41      
   18 02/05 18Z   36     36    0.03 -SN     37     36    0.1  0.44    0.1
   21 02/05 21Z   23     18    0.01         36     23    0.1  0.45    0.2
   24 02/06 00Z   15     11    0.00         36     15    0.0            
   27 02/06 03Z   12      8    0.00         15     12    0.0            
   30 02/06 06Z    7      4    0.00         15      7    0.0            
   33 02/06 09Z    4      1    0.00          7      4    0.0            
   36 02/06 12Z    2     -1    0.00          7      2    0.0            
   39 02/06 15Z   11      7    0.00         11      2    0.0            
   42 02/06 18Z   18     13    0.00         18      2    0.0            
   45 02/06 21Z   18     14    0.00         19     17    0.0            
   48 02/07 00Z   11      9    0.00         19     11    0.0            
   51 02/07 03Z   15     11    0.00         15     12    0.0            
   54 02/07 06Z   15     11    0.00         15     12    0.0            
   57 02/07 09Z   16     12    0.00         16     15    0.0            
   60 02/07 12Z   16     13    0.00         16     15    0.0            
   63 02/07 15Z   21     17    0.00         21     16    0.0            
   66 02/07 18Z   23     20    0.00         23     16    0.0            
   69 02/07 21Z   24     21    0.01 -SN     24     23    0.0  0.01      
   72 02/08 00Z   24     22    0.00 -SN     24     23    0.0            
   75 02/08 03Z   26     24    0.00 -FZRN   26     24    0.0            
   78 02/08 06Z   29     27    0.02 -SN     29     24    0.2  0.02    0.2
   81 02/08 09Z   32     31    0.14 -SN     32     29    0.8  0.16    1.0
   84 02/08 12Z   34     34    0.12 -RA     35     29    0.0  0.28      
   87 02/08 15Z   36     35    0.04 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.32      
   90 02/08 18Z   39     38    0.13 -RA     39     34    0.0  0.45      
   93 02/08 21Z   34     28    0.01 -SN     39     34    0.0  0.46      
   96 02/09 00Z   29     23    0.01 -SN     39     29    0.2  0.47    0.2
   99 02/09 03Z   23     15    0.02 -SN     29     23    0.2  0.49    0.4
  102 02/09 06Z   17      9    0.00 -SN     29     16    0.0            
  105 02/09 09Z    5     -1    0.01 -SN     17      5    0.2  0.01    0.2
  108 02/09 12Z    1     -5    0.00 -SN     17      1    0.0            
  111 02/09 15Z    3     -3    0.00 -SN      3      0    0.0            
  114 02/09 18Z    6      0    0.00 -SN      6      0    0.0            
  117 02/09 21Z    7      0    0.00 -SN      9      6    0.0            
  120 02/10 00Z    4     -2    0.00 -SN      9      4    0.0            
  123 02/10 03Z    1     -5    0.00          3      1    0.0

 

 

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For GTA area I’m thinking the first batch of precipitation will be mainly PL over ZR. It should eventually change over to ZR then rain when the next batch of precipitation moves in but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a few cm of ice pellets first.

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we literally have no snow left...even snowbanks are almost gone.  Just the giant ones still have remains.  What a melt that was.  

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16 minutes ago, HamiltonWx said:

we literally have no snow left...even snowbanks are almost gone.  Just the giant ones still have remains.  What a melt that was.  

Barely anything left here as well other than snowbanks and a few white patches. At least we had a week to enjoy it and honestly this winter has sucked so I'm almost over the season at this point. March can't come fast enough lol.

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Here in Montreal, we are at 6c and the city resembles a skating rink that has been dropped in a very large pool of water. ;-) We had to walk like penguins this morning to keep from slipping and falling into a icy pool of dirty water.

In front of my office is a puddle 20 feet in diameter that is a good foot deep.

Models are showing temps starting to veer near "normal".. Which is a good chance from the freezing we've had. But there is lots of snow here.

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17 minutes ago, BigSnowstorm said:

Is this enough of an event to have schools closed tomorrow?

Bus cancellations, very likely. School closure I don't think so.

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Feb 5 12Z GFS text run forecast has London/Kitchener/Hamilton getting significant amounts of freezing rain. Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal look to get small amounts, with Toronto getting pellets as well. Quebec City escapes freezing rain altogether.

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   21 02/06 09Z   27     18    0.00         28     27    0.0            
   24 02/06 12Z   29     29    0.30 FZRN    29     26    0.0  0.30      
   27 02/06 15Z   30     29    0.23 FZRN    30     27    0.0  0.53      
   30 02/06 18Z   31     30    0.05 -FZRN   31     27    0.0  0.58      
   33 02/06 21Z   31     30    0.01 -FZRN   31     31    0.0  0.59      
   36 02/07 00Z   31     30    0.00 -FZRN   31     31    0.0            
   39 02/07 03Z   30     29    0.01 -FZRN   31     30    0.0  0.01      
   42 02/07 06Z   30     29    0.00 -FZRN   31     30    0.0            
   45 02/07 09Z   31     30    0.01 -FZRN   31     30    0.0  0.01      
   48 02/07 12Z   32     32    0.00 -RA     32     30    0.0            
   51 02/07 15Z   36     36    0.00 -RA     36     32    0.0            
   54 02/07 18Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     32    0.0  0.03      
   57 02/07 21Z   40     40    0.09 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.12      
   60 02/08 00Z   45     45    0.13 -RA     45     38    0.0  0.25      
   63 02/08 03Z   50     49    0.03 -RA     50     45    0.0  0.28      
   66 02/08 06Z   49     48    0.07 -TSRA   50     45    0.0  0.35      
   69 02/08 09Z   35     27    0.01 -SN     49     35    0.0  0.36      
   72 02/08 12Z   28     19    0.01 -SN     49     28    0.0  0.37      
   75 02/08 15Z   26     15    0.01 -SN     28     26    0.0  0.38      
   78 02/08 18Z   26     13    0.01 -SN     28     26    0.0  0.39      
   81 02/08 21Z   24     11    0.00 -SN     26     24    0.0            
   84 02/09 00Z   19      7    0.00 -SN     26     19    0.0            
   87 02/09 03Z   17      5    0.00 -SN     19     17    0.0            
   90 02/09 06Z   17      5    0.00 -SN     19     17    0.0            
   93 02/09 09Z   16      3    0.01 -SN     17     16    0.0  0.01      
   96 02/09 12Z   15      2    0.00 -SN     17     15    0.0            
   99 02/09 15Z   16      3    0.00         16     14    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   21 02/06 09Z   25     15    0.00         25     24    0.0            
   24 02/06 12Z   25     24    0.11 -PL     26     24    0.0  0.11      
   27 02/06 15Z   25     24    0.19 FZRN    26     24    0.0  0.30      
   30 02/06 18Z   26     24    0.04 -FZRN   26     24    0.0  0.34      
   33 02/06 21Z   27     26    0.01 -FZRN   27     26    0.0  0.35      
   36 02/07 00Z   26     25    0.00 -FZRN   27     26    0.0            
   39 02/07 03Z   26     25    0.00 -FZRN   26     26    0.0            
   42 02/07 06Z   26     25    0.01 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.01      
   45 02/07 09Z   27     26    0.01 -FZRN   27     26    0.0  0.02      
   48 02/07 12Z   30     29    0.00 -FZRN   30     26    0.0            
   51 02/07 15Z   33     33    0.00         33     30    0.0            
   54 02/07 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.01      
   57 02/07 21Z   35     35    0.14 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.15      
   60 02/08 00Z   37     37    0.09 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.24      
   63 02/08 03Z   46     46    0.05 -RA     46     37    0.0  0.29      
   66 02/08 06Z   48     47    0.08 -TSRA   48     37    0.0  0.37      
   69 02/08 09Z   35     29    0.01 -SN     48     35    0.0  0.38      
   72 02/08 12Z   28     20    0.00 -SN     48     28    0.0            
   75 02/08 15Z   26     16    0.01 -SN     28     26    0.0  0.01      
   78 02/08 18Z   25     13    0.01 -SN     28     25    0.0  0.02      
   81 02/08 21Z   23     10    0.00 -SN     25     23    0.0            
   84 02/09 00Z   20      8    0.00 -SN     25     20    0.0            
   87 02/09 03Z   19      7    0.00 -SN     20     19    0.0            
   90 02/09 06Z   16      4    0.00 -SN     20     16    0.0            
   93 02/09 09Z   14      2    0.00         16     14    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   21 02/06 09Z   28     19    0.00         27     26    0.0            
   24 02/06 12Z   27     23    0.03 -FZRN   28     26    0.0  0.03      
   27 02/06 15Z   28     28    0.39 FZRN    28     26    0.0  0.42      
   30 02/06 18Z   28     27    0.09 FZRN    28     26    0.0  0.51      
   33 02/06 21Z   29     28    0.08 -FZRN   29     28    0.0  0.59      
   36 02/07 00Z   29     29    0.02 -FZRN   30     28    0.0  0.61      
   39 02/07 03Z   29     28    0.01 -FZRN   29     29    0.0  0.62      
   42 02/07 06Z   29     29    0.00 -FZRN   30     29    0.0            
   45 02/07 09Z   29     29    0.01 -FZRN   30     29    0.0  0.01      
   48 02/07 12Z   31     30    0.00 -FZRN   31     29    0.0            
   51 02/07 15Z   33     33    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   54 02/07 18Z   35     35    0.01         35     31    0.0  0.01      
   57 02/07 21Z   35     35    0.11 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.12      
   60 02/08 00Z   38     38    0.23 RA      38     35    0.0  0.35      
   63 02/08 03Z   47     46    0.06 -RA     47     38    0.0  0.41      
   66 02/08 06Z   48     47    0.06 -TSRA   49     38    0.0  0.47      
   69 02/08 09Z   40     34    0.00         49     40    0.0            
   72 02/08 12Z   32     23    0.01 -SN     49     32    0.0  0.01      
   75 02/08 15Z   28     17    0.00 -SN     31     28    0.0            
   78 02/08 18Z   28     16    0.01 -SN     31     28    0.0  0.01      
   81 02/08 21Z   26     13    0.00 -SN     28     26    0.0            
   84 02/09 00Z   22      9    0.00 -SN     28     22    0.0            
   87 02/09 03Z   20      7    0.00         22     20    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   21 02/06 09Z   27     21    0.00         27     25    0.0            
   24 02/06 12Z   26     22    0.02 -PL     27     25    0.0  0.02      
   27 02/06 15Z   25     24    0.26 PL      26     25    0.0  0.28      
   30 02/06 18Z   25     23    0.05 PL      26     25    0.0  0.33      
   33 02/06 21Z   26     25    0.03 -FZRN   26     25    0.0  0.36      
   36 02/07 00Z   27     25    0.00 -FZRN   27     25    0.0            
   39 02/07 03Z   26     24    0.00 -FZRN   27     26    0.0            
   42 02/07 06Z   27     25    0.00 -FZRN   27     26    0.0            
   45 02/07 09Z   28     26    0.00 -FZRN   28     27    0.0            
   48 02/07 12Z   29     28    0.00 -FZRN   29     27    0.0            
   51 02/07 15Z   31     30    0.00 -RA     31     29    0.0            
   54 02/07 18Z   33     33    0.01 -RA     33     29    0.0  0.01      
   57 02/07 21Z   34     34    0.09 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.10      
   60 02/08 00Z   36     35    0.18 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.28      
   63 02/08 03Z   42     42    0.06 -RA     42     36    0.0  0.34      
   66 02/08 06Z   45     44    0.06 -TSRA   46     36    0.0  0.40      
   69 02/08 09Z   40     33    0.01 -RA     46     40    0.0  0.41      
   72 02/08 12Z   33     23    0.00 -SN     46     33    0.0            
   75 02/08 15Z   30     18    0.00         33     29    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   48 02/07 12Z   21     20    0.00         21     18    0.0            
   51 02/07 15Z   23     22    0.00 -FZRN   23     21    0.0            
   54 02/07 18Z   28     27    0.00         28     21    0.0            
   57 02/07 21Z   28     28    0.00 -FZRN   29     28    0.0            
   60 02/08 00Z   30     29    0.01 -FZRN   30     28    0.0  0.01      
   63 02/08 03Z   33     33    0.10 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.11      
   66 02/08 06Z   37     37    0.08 -RA     37     30    0.0  0.19      
   69 02/08 09Z   38     38    0.06 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.25      
   72 02/08 12Z   42     42    0.02 -RA     43     37    0.0  0.27      
   75 02/08 15Z   35     28    0.00 -SN     42     35    0.0            
   78 02/08 18Z   33     24    0.00 -SN     42     33    0.0            
   81 02/08 21Z   29     18    0.01 -SN     33     29    0.0  0.01      
   84 02/09 00Z   21     12    0.00 -SN     33     21    0.0            
   87 02/09 03Z   15      7    0.00         21     15    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   30 02/06 18Z   13      9    0.00         13      7    0.0            
   33 02/06 21Z   13     11    0.00 -SN     13     12    0.0            
   36 02/07 00Z   14     12    0.00 -SN     14     12    0.0            
   39 02/07 03Z   16     14    0.00         16     14    0.0            
   42 02/07 06Z   18     17    0.01 -SN     18     14    0.0  0.01      
   45 02/07 09Z   20     19    0.01 -SN     20     18    0.0  0.02      
   48 02/07 12Z   21     20    0.00 -PL     21     18    0.0            
   51 02/07 15Z   24     23    0.00         24     21    0.0            
   54 02/07 18Z   27     27    0.01 -FZRN   27     21    0.0  0.01      
   57 02/07 21Z   29     29    0.00 -FZRN   29     27    0.0            
   60 02/08 00Z   31     30    0.00 -RA     31     27    0.0            
   63 02/08 03Z   33     33    0.01 -RA     33     31    0.0  0.01      
   66 02/08 06Z   36     36    0.18 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.19      
   69 02/08 09Z   37     36    0.12 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.31      
   72 02/08 12Z   39     38    0.03 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.34      
   75 02/08 15Z   39     35    0.01 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.35      
   78 02/08 18Z   35     26    0.00 -SN     42     35    0.0            
   81 02/08 21Z   32     22    0.01 -SN     35     32    0.0  0.01      
   84 02/09 00Z   27     17    0.01 -SN     35     27    0.0  0.02      
   87 02/09 03Z   19      8    0.00         27     19    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z  5FEB 2019
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   57 02/07 21Z   25     23    0.00         26     25    0.0            
   60 02/08 00Z   26     24    0.01 -SN     26     24    0.0  0.01      
   63 02/08 03Z   28     26    0.01 -SN     28     26    0.0  0.02      
   66 02/08 06Z   31     30    0.02 -SN     32     26    0.2  0.04    0.2
   69 02/08 09Z   34     33    0.16 SN      34     31    0.8  0.20    1.0
   72 02/08 12Z   35     35    0.15 RA      35     31    0.0  0.35      
   75 02/08 15Z   37     37    0.14 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.49      
   78 02/08 18Z   35     31    0.02 -SN     38     35    0.2  0.51    0.2
   81 02/08 21Z   30     24    0.02 -SN     35     30    0.2  0.53    0.4
   84 02/09 00Z   25     18    0.02 -SN     35     25    0.1  0.55    0.5
   87 02/09 03Z   18     12    0.00 -SN     25     18    0.0            
   90 02/09 06Z    5     -1    0.00 -SN     25      5    0.0            
   93 02/09 09Z    2     -4    0.00          5      2    0.0

 

 

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3 hours ago, shampoo said:

Here in Montreal, we are at 6c and the city resembles a skating rink that has been dropped in a very large pool of water. ;-) We had to walk like penguins this morning to keep from slipping and falling into a icy pool of dirty water.

In front of my office is a puddle 20 feet in diameter that is a good foot deep.

Models are showing temps starting to veer near "normal".. Which is a good chance from the freezing we've had. But there is lots of snow here.

Hey Shampoo , where are you located since over here streets are bare and clean mostly.

Edited by Stl

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Freezing rain Warning for Brant.  TWN saying 15mm...yikes!

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Yeah! Freeing rain storm just in time for my birthday... :classic_dry:

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I am not too good with meteorology, I usually read the forums when messy weather is around. I am a bit confused for how different the forecast are.

EC doesn't have a warning for Toronto, you would think that so close they would, they are saying ice pellets and a bit of freezing rain.

Accuweather is along the same lines.

TWN on the other hand is predicting a lot more FZ.

My concern is that they got the past snow storm so wrong that they could really be underestimating this one. They also grossly underestimated temperatures on Monday, are the models out of whack?

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2 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

Yeah! Freeing rain storm just in time for my birthday... :classic_dry:

HAPPY ICY BIRTHDAY!

  • Haha 1

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I agree with your concerns rjb1.  I think we are in a new era where the computer model output has some media outlets addicted to a particular model and what they generate, they won't dissent from them. Copy and paste essentially.  ie, I do find Environment Canada in Ontario is reticent (bias?) in predicting precipitation amounts and posting warnings as compared to Quebec. Fortunately this group has some really good sources and great bloggers, you and i can get an alternative and bold opinions, and long term previews of whats coming, or could be around the bend. Meteorology is a science and art form that i don't have a great grasp on either!  But we all enjoy it . Thanks all for the posts, :forumsmiley1697-1:

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Found this on Chicago NOAA site. Good info on ice storm in their area,  Has anyone seen this format before?  Wish E.C. would step up their game and do something like this.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

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1 hour ago, Humidex said:

I agree with your concerns rjb1.  I think we are in a new era where the computer model output has some media outlets addicted to a particular model and what they generate, they won't dissent from them. Copy and paste essentially.  ie, I do find Environment Canada in Ontario is reticent (bias?) in predicting precipitation amounts and posting warnings as compared to Quebec. Fortunately this group has some really good sources and great bloggers, you and i can get an alternative and bold opinions, and long term previews of whats coming, or could be around the bend. Meteorology is a science and art form that i don't have a great grasp on either!  But we all enjoy it . Thanks all for the posts, :forumsmiley1697-1:

I noticed that TWN was predicting a much worse scenario than the others, now they backed down. I heard somewhere that they are one model behind.

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15 minutes ago, rjb1 said:

I noticed that TWN was predicting a much worse scenario than the others, now they backed down. I heard somewhere that they are one model behind.

I don't think they've backed down. I think the worse thing about this is the timing. Freezing rain is to start in most areas at 6AM and persist throughout the day for several hours. My area of Kitchener could see up to 12 hours of ice accretion, even longer between London-Hamilton-Niagra. The 401 corridor looks to be caught in the middle for commuters AM and PM. 

As I see it our saving grace could be an extended period of ice pellets which is something we've seen in the past. Hard to predict and the models don't handle this well. But easier on traction and trees/power lines.

IMG_20190205_2216103.jpg

Edited by Snowball

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37 minutes ago, Snowball said:

I don't think they've backed down. I think the worse thing about this is the timing. Freezing rain is to start in most areas at 6AM and persist throughout the day for several hours. My area of Kitchener could see up to 12 hours of ice accretion, even longer between London-Hamilton-Niagra. The 401 corridor looks to be caught in the middle for commuters AM and PM. 

As I see it our saving grace could be an extended period of ice pellets which is something we've seen in the past. Hard to predict and the models don't handle this well. But easier on traction and trees/power lines.

IMG_20190205_2216103.jpg

But earlier, TWN was predicting 15 mm of freezing rain for Toronto, now they are showing 5 mm of ice pellets. I do know the SW and west are much worse.

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00z GFS/RAP predict more 5-10. NAM is ugly and shows a more organized condensed 10-15 for many of us.

Edited by Snowball

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For the GTA the NAM does show more PL than ZR. The HRRR dynamics however support more ZR than PL. At this point I’d lean more toward the NAM as I think the system will have a ice pellet component to it as it tracks over the lakes.

Having said that the HRRR has been spot on at times this year with track, precip type and accumulations so will have to respect the fact that it’s showing more freezing rain than ice pellets for the GTA.

Further south in SW ON it should mostly be ZR.

I wouldn’t say this is a massive ice storm by any means but the areas that get all or mostly ZR will have close to 1/2” of ice accretion. The areas that start out as PL there will obviously be less ice accumulation but more pellet accumulation.

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