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junior

February 11-13th Winter Storm OBS

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LOL @ the FV3 for the Tues/Wed. storm...nope.

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2 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

yeah we need to decide on what this thread is and adjust dates, judging by the initial post of a 1014MB slider low I thought this was the weaker of the 2 systems

I assumed it was the secondary based on the dates. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

LOL @ the FV3 for the Tues/Wed. storm...nope.

Yeah, I'm not much of a fan of surface outputs the FV3 puts out....

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well if we're going that route that then this should be adjusted to 12-13 and a new one for 10-11

 

that being said, ICON cutter, GEFS mean is a central lakes cutter with members everywhere

and the UK would probably be out of range for this thread, sort of could just be timing differences 

Edited by ohiobuckeye45

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15 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

LOL @ the FV3 for the Tues/Wed. storm...nope.

 

12 minutes ago, RobB said:

Yeah, I'm not much of a fan of surface outputs the FV3 puts out....

 

35 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

FV3 is slightly different. (also it's terrible)

 

 

Screenshot_2.jpg

I'm come to the conclusion that the FV3 is the new DGEX for anything beyond 120 hours.

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2 hours ago, chicagosnow said:

Storm on Tuesday a western cutter on 12z GFS. I'm sure that's what will happen, too. 

The Euro concurs

Screenshot_20190206-123409_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Lollll at FV3 for the bigger storm. If that happens I don’t need another storm for this winter.

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yeah that was a nothing burger the whole way around, the early system fails to drop 2'' anywhere, the cutter fails to get any state in our thread involved, and the storm after that is a positively tilted cutter that does a general 1-3'' along and either side of I-80

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Just now, chicagosnow said:

Euro's a cutter. Towel thrown. 

Recommend you follow cranky on Twitter. Does a good job explaining the split flow and model mayhem that ensues. 

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4 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

Euro's a cutter. Towel thrown. 

Not sure yet. Any hope with the GEFS or Euro ensemble? Post above seems to show some hope with ECMF EPS ensemble.

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21 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Recommend you follow cranky on Twitter. Does a good job explaining the split flow and model mayhem that ensues. 

I follow him. I know what he's said, but I also know that he's leaning toward it being a cutter. 

14 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Not sure yet. Any hope with the GEFS or Euro ensemble? Post above seems to show some hope with ECMF EPS ensemble.

Ensembles almost always seem better. I'm just going by the trends on the models, but mostly how this winter has behaved. 

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If/until we get separate threads, I’ll post all three day here.  WPC’s Day 5, 6 and 7.(Wed. PM)

Quote

31BCD457-1471-49E2-92F8-59E62A057377.gif.804729d5bbf29b2a789d6634f0575bd8.gifB5CA8C3D-5B36-4B31-AB4F-B73A46CD6949.gif.32a7536d5925b574b9ed8c6c976ab8d5.gif6DE72990-971F-4C77-B270-A0D92ED9CD57.gif.da6653bc1ecf99c695842acbbdf5f5d9.gif

 

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38 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

If/until we get separate threads, I’ll post all three day here.  WPC’s Day 5, 6 and 7.(Wed. PM)

 

Done. :)

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This thread is for the bigger system, not the weak energy that escapes ahead of it.

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FV3 still all on it's own it seems. Would be a heck of a time for a coup lol. 

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9 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

FV3 still all on it's own it seems. Would be a heck of a time for a coup lol. 

Mannnn. It did it again...

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FV is basically a bowling ball. It suggests a nice western ridge to help it dig more SE while the GFS/Euro have another system trailing right behind it basically aiding it to shoot NE into the lakes.

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CPC has added about 3 sq. miles of this sub forum for a heavy snow risk on the 12th.

A14CF332-B343-438E-A547-5383AF3BEF56.png

EDIT: I don’t know what storm this is for. It may be for the end of our 10-11th system. :hmm:

Edited by Hiramite
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WPC Days 5 & 6. (Thurs AM run) Very similar to yesterday’s PM maps. Day 6 looks cutterish.

Quote

BA2CF556-CF6A-426A-BF10-1B870569B72B.gif.7d3ec403c1c50b676b24c219bb28312d.gif2ED5EAA1-D50A-4C7E-A778-A18ACABF6186.gif.f508842f17b4d23a3f86c68fa9bc97ac.gif

 

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56 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

FWIW, gfs and ecm still far western cutters and fv3 is caving that way 

No worries.  If we don’t get hit by this one, I’m sure we’ll cash in on the next one. And if we don’t get hit by that one, we’ll probably get hit by the one after that. And if....:classic_dry:

  • Haha 2

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