Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
Sign in to follow this  
Weatherdude1993

Summer 2019

Staff Recommended Posts

Since it appears that some of us are discussing summer already, I thought I'd give this an early start.

Seasonal Thread and Discussion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Way too early but I can only hope it's sunny this far out. The longest days of the year should be the sunniest as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brought over our conversation from the spring thread

 

On 2/22/2019 at 3:09 AM, Weatherdude1993 said:

In developing El Nino years, at least a couple of months between April and November tend to be well below normal, as we saw in 2018 with April and November; 2015 with June and August; and 2009 with June, July, and October. Summer was surprisingly hot last year for a year with a developing El Nino. Developing La Nina years are more likely to avoid extreme cold during an April to November period (2016, 2010, 1998).

 

On 2/22/2019 at 10:32 AM, Snowgeek93 said:

I hope not. Those Summer's sucked around here, especially 2009 which was way too cloudy and cool for my liking. 2014 was better as at least there was some more sunshine and wasn't 2015 a developing El Nino as well? I don't recall that summer being too bad around here either and there was a decent amount of sunshine which is the most important factor to me all times of the year. Last summer had a solid June and first half of July before turning sour into later July and much of August.

Personally I hope El Nino dies off during the spring/summer as I don't want to deal with another crappy winter next year but time will tell.

 

On 2/22/2019 at 4:27 PM, Weatherdude1993 said:

2015 was a slightly cool summer but I wouldn't classify it as a non-summer, especially considering the second half of July, a generally sunny August (Although still somewhat cool), and very warm September. 1997's developing El Nino was similar although we had a much warmer June and much cooler August-September than in 2015.

All those summers I mentioned above were terrible, but July 2009 and all of 1992 especially stood out.

 

On 2/22/2019 at 4:49 PM, TheRealDavid said:

2015 wasn't bad in terms of temps but it was lacking in humidity. I like my summers both warm and humid so it was a weak summer in that regard. I think El Nino summers tend to be less humid than La Nina summers.

 

On 2/22/2019 at 10:03 PM, Weatherdude1993 said:

To me, June was horrible that year. Worst I have lived through. July and August were far from the best, but not the worst either.

 

On 2/22/2019 at 3:04 AM, Weatherdude1993 said:

With El Nino re-developing, I wouldn't be surprised if the summer of 2019 ends up similar to 2014 and 2009. It seems like every four or five years since 1992 we get a complete non-summer (2014, 2009, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992). 2017 almost made the cut but was saved by those glorious last few weeks of September.

 

On 2/22/2019 at 11:30 PM, TheRealDavid said:

If we pretend that meteorological summer is July-September, 2015 would've had a pretty average summer. That warm season (May-Sept) as a whole wasn't horrible, it just got ruined by a cool June. Of course, I'd take a summer like 2016 or 2018 over that of 2015 :classic_smile:

A thing to watch. 2018 was notable for having a stout +NAO with the resultant above average heights all across the mid-latitudes. The NAO is progged to go positive but can it hold through summer? While a strong +NAO wouldn't be a saviour, it can ameliorate a pattern caused by unfavourable tropical forcing.

 

On 2/23/2019 at 8:10 AM, Snowgeek93 said:

June 2015 was indeed awful. Way too much cloud cover and rain which ruined my favorite month of the year. The longest days of the year should be sunny and dry as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Way to early for models but just for kicks, I've done a cursory glance at what the models have for this summer. As expected, most models are showing above average temps for Southern Ontario. Some models have a torch while others are slightly above average. As for precip, most models are wetter for SW Ont and drier to the N and E.

The only model even entertaining a non-above average forecast for Southern Ontario is the King Euro, which has a normal summer for S Ont. El Nino summers tend to be on the cool side so I think the Euro would once again show why it got it's nickname. We all know LR models tend to be warm biased so I'd go even cooler than that.

The general look is cooler and wetter for the middle of the continent, centred over the midwest, and warmer and drier for the coasts.

I really hope that this is a year with a summer that goes against ENSO climo. With the weird El Nino, who knows. It seems like anything is possible these days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A cool summer is a comfortable summer if it is at or below 25.  Thank god I do not live in southern Ontario and we do have the ocean effect which is foe in winter and friend in summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

Way to early for models but just for kicks, I've done a cursory glance at what the models have for this summer. As expected, most models are showing above average temps for Southern Ontario. Some models have a torch while others are slightly above average. As for precip, most models are wetter for SW Ont and drier to the N and E.

The only model even entertaining a non-above average forecast for Southern Ontario is the King Euro, which has a normal summer for S Ont. El Nino summers tend to be on the cool side so I think the Euro would once again show why it got it's nickname. We all know LR models tend to be warm biased so I'd go even cooler than that.

The general look is cooler and wetter for the middle of the continent, centred over the midwest, and warmer and drier for the coasts.

I really hope that this is a year with a summer that goes against ENSO climo. With the weird El Nino, who knows. It seems like anything is possible these days.

TWN just released their preliminary summer outlook along with their spring forecast and its pretty much standard El Nino climo, cooler conditions for the middle of the continent and warmer for the coasts.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Sneezy said:

A cool summer is a comfortable summer if it is at or below 25.  Thank god I do not live in southern Ontario and we do have the ocean effect which is foe in winter and friend in summer.

Not me! I live for the extremes :classic_biggrin:

Give me a very muggy 35C day or a frosty -10C day over a lukewarm 15C, any day of the week :classic_cool:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know Bamwx can tweet out suspect info sometimes but I thought this was a good visual.

The El Nino is projected to stay at least weakly positive and with the subsurface so warm, I think summer will be cooler and wetter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/25/2019 at 4:18 PM, TheRealDavid said:

Not me! I live for the extremes :classic_biggrin:

Give me a very muggy 35C day or a frosty -10C day over a lukewarm 15C, any day of the week :classic_cool:

Give me temps in the low 20's, crystal clear skies and a light breeze and that's about my definition of perfect summer weather. No cool and wet please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

Give me temps in the low 20's, crystal clear skies and a light breeze and that's about my definition of perfect summer weather. No cool and wet please.

Hot and wet (30C+ with an afternoon t-storm)

Warm and wet (27C)

Hot and dry

Warm and dry

Cool and dry (low 20C)

Cool and wet

is how I’d rank my preferred summertime weather. Basically, I prefer wetter conditions for that sultry feel and to keep things lush, but not at the expense of proper summer temps.

I think most people prefer either hot and dry or cool and wet so I think I’m in the minority.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's early for models but the latest run of the NMME came out and it actually trended warmer for the GL. It's a notoriously warm biased model suite so it's helpful to look at it's individual models.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas3.html

Even if you toss out the FLOR and NCAR models, which shows a blowtorch for the interior, the GL would still be above average.

As I mentioned before, I'm leaning towards cooler and wetter as it's the easy call for El Nino summers. However, the fact that so many models are showing above average for the GL tells me it's not that simple.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

It's early for models but the latest run of the NMME came out and it actually trended warmer for the GL. It's a notoriously warm biased model suite so it's helpful to look at it's individual models.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas3.html

Even if you toss out the FLOR and NCAR models, which shows a blowtorch for the interior, the GL would still be above average.

As I mentioned before, I'm leaning towards cooler and wetter as it's the easy call for El Nino summers. However, the fact that so many models are showing above average for the GL tells me it's not that simple.

I thought last summer was going to be chilly because of a developing El Nino. It was chilly in the fall instead. 

A theory I have had for some time now is that if an El Nino develops, the Great Lakes will get blasted with sustained unseasonable cold at some point between June and November. Based on this, if the summer is normal to above normal, a chilly fall is pretty much guaranteed (2018 mid-late fall, 2012 was an average fall but certainly felt cold after the hot summer, 2006 in the first half of fall, 2002 mid-late fall, 1991, 1987). If the summer is cooler, there is still hope for a relatively warm fall (2015, 2009 in November, 2004, 1994). 1997 was cold in both the summer and fall, but it wasn't particularly persistent.

If El Nino continues to develop, I would expect at least one or two unseasonably cold months between June and November. What months exactly are obviously uncertain at this point though.

Developing La Nina years are far more likely to be above normal over 65% of the time from June to November (2016, 2010, 2007, 2005, 1999, 1998).

 

 

 

Edited by Weatherdude1993
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weatherbell released their summer outlook https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-forecast-for-summer-2019

same general pattern as the NMME. Warm coasts, cool interior centred in the plains.

Summer 2017 meets 2018?

Quote

With all the moisture, another summer where temperatures will be skewed warm by nighttime lows and humidity appears to be shaping up.

Or even a summer 2018 repeat? :classic_love: Last summer wasn't impressive in terms of daytime highs (other than the epic Canada day weekend heatwave), but featured blowtorch nighttime lows and lots of humidity which made the summer feel a lot warmer.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TheRealDavid said:

Weatherbell released their summer outlook https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-forecast-for-summer-2019

same general pattern as the NMME. Warm coasts, cool interior centred in the plains.

Summer 2017 meets 2018?

Or even a summer 2018 repeat? :classic_love: Last summer wasn't impressive in terms of daytime highs (other than the epic Canada day weekend heatwave), but featured blowtorch nighttime lows and lots of humidity which made the summer feel a lot warmer.

I totally agree with you on this, especially since there is no drought in the Eastern Plains to aid much dry warmth for here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TWC released their prelim summer outlook. W/same ideas as TWN and Weatherbell, warmer conditions for the coasts/cooler in the interior. Wxbell has the coolest anomalies over the central Great Plains whereas TWN & TWC has it farther north.

 

It seems most outlets are basing their outlooks off the NMME (linked in one of my previous posts) and the Euro (below)

 

Additionally Nino climo suggests that there’s roughly a 50/50 chance of the coolest anomalies centred over either the plains or the Midwest. It looks like the former outcome will be more probable for summer 2019.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

TWC released their prelim summer outlook. W/same ideas as TWN and Weatherbell, warmer conditions for the coasts/cooler in the interior. Wxbell has the coolest anomalies over the central Great Plains whereas TWN & TWC has it farther north.

 

It seems most outlets are basing their outlooks off the NMME (linked in one of my previous posts) and the Euro (below)

 

Additionally Nino climo suggests that there’s roughly a 50/50 chance of the coolest anomalies centred over either the plains or the Midwest. It looks like the former outcome will be more probable for summer 2019.

Not to be a pessimist, but given the El Nino, it would not surprise me if the chill is farther east than expected. We'll see though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest run of the European equivalent of the NMME suggests a normal to slightly below normal summer for the Great Lakes region. Closer to normal temps in the eastern lakes

convert_image-gorax-green-007-6fe5cac1a3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like met summer will open with cooler and wetter than normal conditions in the Great Lakes.

The AO/NAO is expected to remain negative for the foreseeable future: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The CFS is trending cooler and wetter for the 1st month of summer. Though it appears drier conditions are starting to make a comeback. Let’s see how it evolves over the coming days

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201906.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201906.gif

Here’s the CFS for May. So far, it got the overall pattern right

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201905.gif

compday.qlo35rH1Qx.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201905.gif

compday.PhUjswbqP9.gif

It’s increasingly likely that if any appreciable warmth are to transpire, it would have to materialize in the latter 2/3 of the summer. And speaking of which, it would be an easy call for continuing cooler conditions based on ENSO climo. However, there do exist prognostications, placing a greater value on tropical forcing and other factors, that argues for elevated chances of warmer than average temps later on. Let’s see what happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:
Quote

Ironically, our confidence in the pattern for September is higher than it is for July and August across southern Ontario and southern Quebec. This region will be in close proximity to a hot summer just to the south and a cool summer just to the north. Both patterns have the potential to dominate at times and one of these patterns has the potential take over and become the dominant pattern for much of the season.

I'm hoping the former happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

It looks like met summer will open with cooler and wetter than normal conditions in the Great Lakes.

The AO/NAO is expected to remain negative for the foreseeable future: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The CFS is trending cooler and wetter for the 1st month of summer. Though it appears drier conditions are starting to make a comeback. Let’s see how it evolves over the coming days

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201906.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201906.gif

Here’s the CFS for May. So far, it got the overall pattern right

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201905.gif

compday.qlo35rH1Qx.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201905.gif

compday.PhUjswbqP9.gif

It’s increasingly likely that if any appreciable warmth are to transpire, it would have to materialize in the latter 2/3 of the summer. And speaking of which, it would be an easy call for continuing I conditions based on ENSO climo. However, there do exist prognostications, placing a greater value on tropical forcing and other factors, that argues for elevated chances of warmer than average temps later on. Let’s see what happens.

2

Classic backloaded summers here were 2015, 2009, 2003, 1998, 1980, and 1969. 

I'll take any of those mid-summer periods except 2009. 2009's July was beyond disgusting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...