Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
Sign in to follow this  
weather_boy2010

March 28th - 31st | Heavy Rain (& Snow?) Threat

Staff Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Looks like a stalled front could lead to some heavy rain for some of us:

Quote

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago IL
438 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 /538 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019/

...Significant Rainfall Late This Week May Lead to Renewed
Flooding ...

A front will stall over the region late in the week, which will
result in a couple bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall from
Thursday night through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible. Significant rainfall totals of one inch to in excess of
two inches are possible, which could cause sharp river and stream
rises and lowland flooding. This includes the most impacted
basins the past few weeks, the Rock, Pecatonica and Fox.

Those living along rivers and streams should prepared for the
possibility of renewed flooding. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts for updates.

Various modeling of the potential rainfall:

3/25/19 00z Euro:

1459600435_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesIndianaIllinoisTotalPrecipitation144.thumb.png.f4619f495ca3ac2414a6b81fd204db7f.png

3/25/19 00z GFS:

2110613043_GFS50-STATESUSAIndianaIllinoisTotalPrecipitation144.thumb.png.88fc5cabb2e988763f2d9f0ba878a441.png

3/25/19 12z WPC Forecast:

837711430_NCEPWPCPrecipitationIndianaIllinoisTotalPrecipitation144.thumb.png.c34813f7cee386bd0e8ba1c832b3725d.png

It looks like someone could pick up some wet snow with this as well:

1078642676_14-kmEPSProbabilityPrecipSnowUnitedStatesSnowfall168.thumb.png.667865051cfe1062a4d80f69b01a6865.png

266657056_GEFSEnsemblesundefinedundefined168.thumb.png.04d9632069c73a7586aea3c69f615af9.png

 

 

Edited by weather_boy2010

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GRR:

Quote

At this time it appears that thermal profiles should cool
sufficiently enough for rain to become mixed then changeover to
wet snow over portions of our fcst area. Snow is most probable
for our far northern fcst area where overall fcst thermal profiles
will be a little cooler. It is noted that operational 12Z ECMWF
has trended further north and keeps snow well north of the
KGRR/KLAN areas while latest GFS guidance still looks a little
cooler.

DTX:

Quote

This will set up a baroclinic zone across southern Michigan, however, at
this time uncertainty remains high as to where exactly the front
will stall which will have impacts on temperatures and area where
more persistent/heavier rain will fall. Latest 12Z GFS model run
sets up h850 temperatures up to 8C across the MI/OH border and near
0C over Bay/Midland county. The Canadian and ECMWF shows a similar
set- up, although with a gentler temperature gradient. In any case,
additional model runs will be needed to pinpoint where the frontal
boundary will set up. Otherwise, precipitation will turn likely
Saturday morning and afternoon as low pressure travels across
Michigan. A wintry mix and/or snow will be possible early Saturday
and again late Saturday as temperatures may drop into the low to mid-
30s.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The modeling seems to be coming into a bit better agreement regarding the areas most at risk for heavy rain...

3/26 00z Euro:

1620165924_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesIndianaIllinoisTotalPrecipitation132.thumb.png.7de9038371a5fc98ce80a64da0091fec.png

3/26 00z EPS:

1602828651_14-kmEPSUSAIndianaIllinoisTotalPrecipitation132.thumb.png.1438b610309258a66dbdd8cb9a16b928.png

3/26 00z GFS:

592286411_GFS50-STATESUSAundefinedundefined132.thumb.png.4bd241b6dc22e13e3b9a657c90ee56da.png

3/26 12z WPC Forecast:

2041408282_NCEPWPCPrecipitationIndianaIllinoisTotalPrecipitation120.thumb.png.48d97ffa009a14219691262e6a5d9ece.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm more on the edge of the rain/snow line so I'll comment more on the snow.

GFS has such a negative tilt that things really don't come together for any swaths of heavy snow. 

ECM and GEM are much more positively tilted and tap into more moisture. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MidMichiganWX said:

Snow portion looks to be a dud now. 

Bring on spring. 

 

lol

 

 

Screenshot_1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, chicagosnow said:

lol

 

 

Screenshot_1.jpg

Yeah, I saw that too. Every AFD I've read is calling the NAM an outlier though, so I don't expect this to really pull through unless we see some changes in the tilt of this one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, MidMichiganWX said:

Yeah, I saw that too. Every AFD I've read is calling the NAM an outlier though, so I don't expect this to really pull through unless we see some changes in the tilt of this one. 

The NAM is an outlier in terms of snowfall, but ignoring the possibility of accumulating snow with this storm is foolish. 12z GEFS indicates plenty of precipitation and chilly air nearby. A stripe of snow will result, but how much and where are unknowns.

f72.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I get anything like what the 12z FV3 of some  of the previous GFS runs showed I will not be happy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, chicagosnow said:

lol

 

 

Screenshot_1.jpg

 

1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

The NAM is an outlier in terms of snowfall, but ignoring the possibility of accumulating snow with this storm is foolish. 12z GEFS indicates plenty of precipitation and chilly air nearby. A stripe of snow will result, but how much and where are unknowns.

f72.gif

The Euro ops is on board with this now also:

452201430_9-kmECMWFUSASurfaceGreatLakesKucheraSnowfall96.thumb.png.81740d0e0379ad004dda2591ad038e62.png

I'll take a good thumping of snow anytime of year, so it can make an infamous NW shift and I'm okay with that lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

The NAM is an outlier in terms of snowfall, but ignoring the possibility of accumulating snow with this storm is foolish. 12z GEFS indicates plenty of precipitation and chilly air nearby. A stripe of snow will result, but how much and where are unknowns.

f72.gif

You're gonna need some crazy snowfall rates to rack up much of anything IMO. Majority of the area in range of any snow is going to see 50s and 60s today and tomorrow.

A 1-3" type event seems possible but that's about it unless some dynamics change w/ the forecast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, MidMichiganWX said:

You're gonna need some crazy snowfall rates to rack up much of anything IMO. Majority of the area in range of any snow is going to see 50s and 60s today and tomorrow.

A 1-3" type event seems possible but that's about it unless some dynamics change w/ the forecast. 

Yeah, heavy snowfall rates or bust in terms of accumulation. However, heavy precipitation rates in late March are fairly common. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure, why not?! - If it's going to be chilly, might as well go for one last snow thump...

 

chair1.gif

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Sure, why not?! - If it's going to be chilly, might as well go for one last snow thump...

 

chair1.gif

That’s one of my all time fave gifs lol

For anyone not so keen on snow, lucky for you it won’t last more than a day this time of year. Will be interesting to see if it’s just a minor event, or something more significant like the NAM shows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This time of year it's hard to throw out marginal situations, u just never know. That being said looking at thermals your 1-2 dynamic cooling degrees on most models from rain or 3+" of snow, evident between the 12z ECM and 00z 

download.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rest of 6z

Also, when its this late I like to look at 10:1 because obviously this late in the season the bigger story is snow falling vs how much actually sticks. Really all depends on rates and time of day anyways 

sn10_acc.us_ov (3).png

sn10_acc.us_ov (2).png

sn10_acc.us_ov (1).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

12z NAM backed off 

1.png

That depends on your location, it still has a stripe of accumulation from Iowa into Michigan.

Not that I trust the NAM, by any stretch, but there were a few times this winter that it set the trend, so I don't think it should be completely ignored either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...