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Q-Zar

Summer 2019 Outlook and Discussion

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Meteorological summer is only about two months away now, but nobody's made a topic for it yet. Meanwhile, there's already a topic for the winter of 2019-2020. What the FOCK?

Discuss summer weather here. :classic_cool:

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Probably just forgot...:classic_cool:

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6 hours ago, Q-Zar said:

Meteorological summer is only about two months away now, but nobody's made a topic for it yet. Meanwhile, there's already a topic for the winter of 2019-2020. What the FOCK?

Discuss summer weather here. :classic_cool:

Right! Exactly who wants to talk About winter when we have spring and summer right ahead of us.... lol

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Posted (edited)

I've got some broad ideas for Summer nationally. Will hone in on them in 4/20-5/10 and post my Summer forecast in that time frame. I don't think it is a particularly hot Summer for most people. Don't really see "Year Without a Summer" style cold either.

In the Southwest, the three best Monsoon indicators I know of are 1) the PDO in Nov-Apr before Summer 2) Precipitation in Nov-Apr before Summer 3) Solar activity.

Low solar = wet, low precip = wet, high PDO = wet. So ahead of the 2006-07 Summer, we had record low precip, low solar, and a neutral PDO, and a very wet Monsoon. Individually these items correlate at about 0.05 (r-squared) for the past 100 years or so to Summer rains. Nov-Apr precip is fairly average to date but will likely be "wet" for Nov-Apr by 4/30. Solar conditions are ideal. PDO conditions are not terrible. My hunch is we get about average rain this Summer, but it starts slowly, since the mountains above 10,000 feet still have 50-100 inches of snow on them, which will interfere with the accumulation and transfer of heat from ground to sky that enhances thunderstorms. The Monsoon seems to start when 5,000 foot terrain gets to near 100F - the system doesn't like that. If the snow doesn't melt until June or July though, we may not hit 100F this year though.

The -NAO in April is a strong cold signal in June for New Mexico, if it actually shows up as forecast the next few days. It's a cold West signal for May too, by the way.

zVYw8BL.png

Edited by raindancewx
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My guess is that with el nino still being present, I expect a similar summer like 2009.  Cold as heck.

 

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Posted (edited)

Summer is the one season where I don't care much about temperature departures.  I'm happy in 70s (below), 80s (normal) or 90s (above).  

Although I do have to say it was kind of a bummer watching the 4th of July fireworks in 2009 at Greenfield Village with a hoodie on.  

Edited by MotownWX

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On 4/18/2019 at 7:27 AM, Al_Cvervik said:

My guess is that with el nino still being present, I expect a similar summer like 2009.  Cold as heck.

 

I sincerely hope not! That summer was way too cloudy and cool around here :classic_angry:

Remember though, not all El Nino summers are bad here (now I'm saying this about summer lol). 2002 and 2015 were fairly decent seasons and had plenty of sunshine which is the most important factor for me in summer. Also in 2009 we were coming off La Nina which is not the case this year.

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This El Nino isn't collapsing as rapidly in Summer as 2009-10 or 2015-16, so I don't think Summer will be like those years. 

I kind of like a blend of 1987, 1987, 1993, 2015 off the top of my head but I'd have to look. The severe flooding in the middle of the country, and top-five warmth in Nino 3.4 for FMA (since 1950) need to be incorporated. Nino 3.4 warmth in March is highly correlated to warmth in the SE in July too.

Y/Y, highs in the Southwest have been colder than 2017-18 in every month starting October. We tend to have colder highs in El Ninos, but the persistence of that is unusual, and it may continue through the Summer since we've had a rainy/snowy Fall, Winter and Spring. 

Summers between El Nino and Neutral winters are what I'm looking at now - 1952, 1959, 1966, 1978, 1992, 2003. I think we have an elevated chance of a Neutral next year, but I want to see if conditions look like those years first. Solar activity is a bit of a wildcard too, it does seem to be coming up, April is around 14 sunspots so far. AMO is still cold relative to recent years and other oceans - raw Atlantic temps are comparable to the warmest years of the 1950s again.

 

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34 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

This El Nino isn't collapsing as rapidly in Summer as 2009-10 or 2015-16, so I don't think Summer will be like those years. 

I kind of like a blend of 1987, 1987, 1993, 2015 off the top of my head but I'd have to look. The severe flooding in the middle of the country, and top-five warmth in Nino 3.4 for FMA (since 1950) need to be incorporated. Nino 3.4 warmth in March is highly correlated to warmth in the SE in July too.

Y/Y, highs in the Southwest have been colder than 2017-18 in every month starting October. We tend to have colder highs in El Ninos, but the persistence of that is unusual, and it may continue through the Summer since we've had a rainy/snowy Fall, Winter and Spring. 

Summers between El Nino and Neutral winters are what I'm looking at now - 1952, 1959, 1966, 1978, 1992, 2003. I think we have an elevated chance of a Neutral next year, but I want to see if conditions look like those years first. Solar activity is a bit of a wildcard too, it does seem to be coming up, April is around 14 sunspots so far. AMO is still cold relative to recent years and other oceans - raw Atlantic temps are comparable to the warmest years of the 1950s again.

 

1993 was an unusually cold summer for many areas west of the Great Lakes, yet IMBY, it was a short yet hot and humid summer, particularly in August. 

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On 4/21/2019 at 7:06 AM, Al_Cvervik said:

I really think this year could be a lot like 1993.

 

The summer of 1993 was searing hot and dry in the South and up the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, thanks to a strong Bermuda high. The Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes were all stormy, due to all the moisture and disturbances being steered around the edge of the Bermuda high. The West was cooler than normal, especially the interior West. I remember there being snow in the northern Rockies that August while the South, Ohio Valley and East Coast all burned up with record and near-record high temperatures.

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7 hours ago, Q-Zar said:

The summer of 1993 was searing hot and dry in the South and up the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, thanks to a strong Bermuda high. The Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes were all stormy, due to all the moisture and disturbances being steered around the edge of the Bermuda high. The West was cooler than normal, especially the interior West. I remember there being snow in the northern Rockies that August while the South, Ohio Valley and East Coast all burned up with record and near-record high temperatures.

Count me in.  I just want dry, and since Pittsburgh couldn't hit 100 if we started the day at 99, I could manage, lol!

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Nothing says summer's almost here like 6550 CAPE at 1PM local time

Qft8dXo.png

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Nino 3.4 warmth in both March & April is a very strong warm signal for the SE in July, and both months were near record warmth. I'm going with a pretty warm South in July in my Summer Outlook. It looks to me like Nino 3.4 is around 28.6C in April, going by the weeklies. April 1983 was only 28.77C as an example of how rare that is, after the big El Nino winter of 1982-83. 1998 was only 28.6C in April after the 1997-98 winter. 2015 was 28.5C in April, 2016 was 28.7C. April 1992 is actually the warmest April on record.

xUIScio.png

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15 hours ago, Ahoff said:

I read through it.  They depict an early start to summer in the graphics, however; if you look at the 45 day forecast, it does not seem very summery at all.

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1 hour ago, Al_Cvervik said:

I read through it.  They depict an early start to summer in the graphics, however; if you look at the 45 day forecast, it does not seem very summery at all.

You believe a 45 day forecast?  You also said 7 degrees below normal in April, let's wait and see.

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3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You believe a 45 day forecast?  You also said 7 degrees below normal in April, let's wait and see.

No I don't believe it, never have.  I was just trying to point out that if your make a forecast and then publish graphics, they should match up.

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5 minutes ago, Al_Cvervik said:

No I don't believe it, never have.  I was just trying to point out that if your make a forecast and then publish graphics, they should match up.

But they don't, because they don't know.  Really they should just drop the long range forecast and stick to 15 days like they used to (which is risky enough on its own).

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On 5/1/2019 at 3:27 PM, Ahoff said:

(*attention-grabbing electric guitar note, followed by brief solo during continuing under first spoken sentence*)

THIS SUMMER, THE SUPER-ULTRA-MEGA-TURBO DEATH RIDGE RETURNS TO GEORGIA, AND IT'S BRINGIN' THE HEAT!

(*begin electric guitar shredding and drums playing together at brisk pace, continuing under all following speech and sound effects*)

GENTLEMEN, IF YOU LOVE HOT WEATHER, COLD BEER, BACKYARD GRILLING, AND SWEET GEORGIA PEACHES IN BIKINIS, THEN GIVE EVERYBODY A HELL YEAH, 'CUZ IT'S ABOUT TO GET HOTTER THAN HELL THIS SUMMER!

(*male crowd yells "HELL YEAH!" in unison*)

SO GET YOUR SWIMMING POOLS READY!

(*splashing sound*)

FIRE UP THOSE GRILLS!

(*sound of sizzling meat*)

CRACK OPEN A COLD ONE!

(*sound of beer bottle opening, followed by satisfied "Ahhh!" sigh*)

AND HAVE YOURSELF A KICK-ASS SUMMER, BUT REMEMBER TO ALWAYS BE RESPECTFUL TO THE LADIES!

(*sounds of women talking and laughing*)

ENJOY FIREWORKS SAFELY AND RESPONSIBLY!

(*sounds of fireworks*)

AND NEVER DRINK AND DRIVE!

(*loud belch followed by sound of police siren*)

GEORGIA, IT'S TIME FOR THE SUMMER OF 2019, AND THE SUPER-ULTRA-MEGA-TURBO DEATH RIDGE IS BACK, SO BURN, BABY, BURN! HELL YEAH!

(*male crowd yells "HELL YEAH!" in unison*)

(*electric guitar and drums play to coda with ad-libbed ending*)


:classic_cool:

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My analog blend for Summer is this - but I'm making a couple changes to it based on some issues with a couple of the factors.

SST 3.4 Feb    Mar    Apr
1966    27.55   28.21   28.16
1966    27.55    28.21    28.16
1987    27.88    28.27    28.39
1992    28.53    28.66    29.02
1993    27.16    27.67    28.41
2015    27.17    27.75    28.52
            
Mean    27.64    28.13    28.44
2019    27.48   28.13   28.46

FMA ONI is +0.8C on the CPC site, but it is comparable to the higher ONI values of different eras since the baseline for ONI in those years is different.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

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On 5/3/2019 at 11:18 PM, raindancewx said:

My analog blend for Summer is this - but I'm making a couple changes to it based on some issues with a couple of the factors.

SST 3.4 Feb    Mar    Apr
1966    27.55   28.21   28.16
1966    27.55    28.21    28.16
1987    27.88    28.27    28.39
1992    28.53    28.66    29.02
1993    27.16    27.67    28.41
2015    27.17    27.75    28.52
            
Mean    27.64    28.13    28.44
2019    27.48   28.13   28.46

FMA ONI is +0.8C on the CPC site, but it is comparable to the higher ONI values of different eras since the baseline for ONI in those years is different.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

I know that 1966 and 1993 had major heat waves in the Mid-Atlantic, and 1993 and 2015 kept the heat away from the Great Lakes for the most part. From what I can tell, 1987 was moderately hot in the Eastern U.S. outside of New York and New England. And 1992 was just an oddball. That was a very mild summer, probably due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991.

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Summer to me is the season i have to wait for to get to fall and winter.  My only wish is that it's near normal/average in both temp and precip.

Here's another summer prognostication, this one by Fox 8 news in CLE (Scott Sabol's station). 2019 summer outlook

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