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Q-Zar

Summer 2019 Outlook and Discussion

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1 hour ago, MotownWX said:

I avoided most of the rain this weekend, stayed to my south  

But wow, it’s been dark and dreary. Sweatshirts always around.  It’s like living in Gotham on most days. 

My memory is getting a bit fuzzy, but I don’t recall even 2009 being this bad. It was chilly, but I don’t remember it being so overcast and damp.  

Yea you guys are not getting a fair shake this year, the good ole split flow jet with a dominant norther stream has had its icy grips on you guys, luckily it is breaking down and a more "pacific flow" is setting up,  that means periods of rain, but it also means the ability for a Bermuda high to build in and dry you guys out, now with the high plus ridges / troughs I would suspect periods of normal to above normal temps building in, with drier weather come mid July.  

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3 hours ago, MotownWX said:

I avoided most of the rain this weekend, stayed to my south  

But wow, it’s been dark and dreary. Sweatshirts always around.  It’s like living in Gotham on most days. 

My memory is getting a bit fuzzy, but I don’t recall even 2009 being this bad. It was chilly, but I don’t remember it being so overcast and damp. 

2009 was dry but cool.  Featured lower lows, but similar high temps.

Half way through June and I feel that we will see more of the same.  

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6 hours ago, MotownWX said:

I avoided most of the rain this weekend, stayed to my south  

But wow, it’s been dark and dreary. Sweatshirts always around.  It’s like living in Gotham on most days. 

My memory is getting a bit fuzzy, but I don’t recall even 2009 being this bad. It was chilly, but I don’t remember it being so overcast and damp. 

IMBY, it's been very similar to 2009 both temperature and sunshine-wise. June 2009 had that one warm, sunny week near the end though, which I am skeptical we will get this year.

2009 had a much nicer spring as well. Close to normal temps and overall much warmer than this year. April 2009 was wet, yes, but a lot of it came in several days of heavy downpours (Not repeated daily risks of rainfall), and there was far more sun than April 2019.

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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2 hours ago, Al_Cvervik said:

2009 was dry but cool.  Featured lower lows, but similar high temps.

Half way through June and I feel that we will see more of the same.  

The SE ridge has been much stronger this year, which explains why we've been cool and wet and not cool and dry.

June 2009 had more of a Central U.S. ridge. Heck, even the extreme Southern Ohio Valley into West Virginia averaged slightly above normal that month. It blew my mind when I first learned that considering how cool it was up here.

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11 hours ago, MotownWX said:

I avoided most of the rain this weekend, stayed to my south  

But wow, it’s been dark and dreary. Sweatshirts always around.  It’s like living in Gotham on most days. 

My memory is getting a bit fuzzy, but I don’t recall even 2009 being this bad. It was chilly, but I don’t remember it being so overcast and damp. 

2009 500mb Mean May14th-June 14th

Screenshot_20190616-193641_Chrome.jpg.5f5664fff2ed506a5cc741734f012256.jpg

Same time period 2019Screenshot_20190616-192624_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f8add6dd1bce7d8e7a517d53b6842dd7.jpg

Temperature Anomalies 2009

Screenshot_20190616-193541_Chrome.jpg.38aab880b596f0b84901230f00b08421.jpg

Temp Anomalies 2019

Screenshot_20190616-193015_Chrome.jpg.20b474a05a7749fa32146c2b57d65957.jpg

Two main differences in the flow:

1) Split flow to the west significantly more amplified in 2009

2) More zonal in the eastern 1/3 of the country in 2019.

Low pressure up in Canada causing heights to be lower in the middle of the country in 2009.

Also appears that there were lower heights across the SE US overall.

There were some big storms hitting the West Coast, propping up riding in the lower Plains/4 corners, and then causing troughing in the SE US as systems dropped in from Canadian low. An ugly pattern for sure

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10 hours ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Yea you guys are not getting a fair shake this year, the good ole split flow jet with a dominant norther stream has had its icy grips on you guys, luckily it is breaking down and a more "pacific flow" is setting up,  that means periods of rain, but it also means the ability for a Bermuda high to build in and dry you guys out, now with the high plus ridges / troughs I would suspect periods of normal to above normal temps building in, with drier weather come mid July.  

Mid July, at that point Summer is half over.  Depending on location, you might get two weeks to a month before average temps start dropping.  

The upcoming week is more of the same.  Summer more likely than not is probably going to feel like a long spring.

 

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Either they finally fixed GFS's problem with weak moisture returns or the Midwest is about to get hit by some insane dew points. Upper 70's/lower 80's just sucks, and I see a couple days with mid-80's in southern Iowa.

Quote

gfs_Td2m_us_fh0-384.gif.9859535d877894d143450438929d6d10.gif

 

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52 minutes ago, Al_Cvervik said:

Mid July, at that point Summer is half over.  Depending on location, you might get two weeks to a month before average temps start dropping.  

The upcoming week is more of the same.  Summer more likely than not is probably going to feel like a long spring.

 

Plus, every time my area looks like it will warm up, the projected highs drop as we get closer to the date. For example, before it looked like 25 C (77 F) was possible on Tuesday and Friday. Now 70 F to 72 F looks more likely. Normal high is around 75 F at this time of year here. 

It seems like in the past nine months, forecasters almost always get it wrong when they predict warmth, but always get it right when they predict cold.

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1 hour ago, Philly_Weather1 said:

2009 500mb Mean May14th-June 14th

Screenshot_20190616-193641_Chrome.jpg.5f5664fff2ed506a5cc741734f012256.jpg

Same time period 2019Screenshot_20190616-192624_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f8add6dd1bce7d8e7a517d53b6842dd7.jpg

Temperature Anomalies 2009

Screenshot_20190616-193541_Chrome.jpg.38aab880b596f0b84901230f00b08421.jpg

Temp Anomalies 2019

Screenshot_20190616-193015_Chrome.jpg.20b474a05a7749fa32146c2b57d65957.jpg

Two main differences in the flow:

1) Split flow to the west significantly more amplified in 2009

2) More zonal in the eastern 1/3 of the country in 2019.

 Low pressure up in Canada causing heights to be lower in the middle of the country in 2009.

Also appears that there were lower heights across the SE US overall.

There were some big storms hitting the West Coast, propping up riding in the lower Plains/4 corners, and then causing troughing in the SE US as systems dropped in from Canadian low. An ugly pattern for sure

 

At least in 2009, the worst of the cold wasn't centered in the Great Lakes, unlike this year.

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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