WX Alert: Flood Advisory, Flood Warning, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Lake Wind Advisory, Rip Current Statement, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Severe Weather Statement, Small Craft Advisory, Special Weather Statement, Tornado Warning, Tornado WatchWXD Alert: Active Discussion, Observations
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be likely Thursday into Thursday night over the Deep South and northern Gulf Coast. In addition, heavy rain may produce flash flooding of low lying areas. The severe weather and heavy rain threat will shift to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast U.S. on Friday. Ongoing heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning will continue drifting slowly eastward today (Thursday). The greatest chance for severe weather and flash flooding will be along the Central Gulf Coast where both SPC and WPC have slight risks. Showers and thunderstorms will expand into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as well along a cold front to the north. Heavy to excessive rainfall and flash flooding will be possible with this activity too, especially for parts of the Ohio Valley where WPC has a slight risk on Thursday. As this system pushes east on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will shift into the Eastern U.S. with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. The cold front should clear the coast late Friday, with drier and cooler weather expected to begin the weekend.
Risk of flash flooding from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley, shifting to the East Coast on Friday. Low pressure will move east from the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast by Friday Night. This will deliver widespread rain to much of the eastern half of the U.S. with many locations likely to receive over an inch of rainfall. Ahead of the low, a warm, humid air mass will push well inland, supporting the development of thunderstorms as far north as the Great Lakes.
Bands of showers continue to rotate NW around the approaching low to our south. The upper low and surface low remain separated for now which is allowing for some minor organization of the precip shield and slight pressure falls of in the low center. The lows will become stacked with the low occluding and then slowly moving east away from the coast. Showers will continue to grow in coverage and become organized over the next few hours across Long Island and southern Ct
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Ridging over the West on Thursday will give way to a series of shortwave troughs, producing widespread precipitation including locally heavy high elevation snow accumulations from the Pacific Northwest and northern California to the northern Rockies. Rain rates at times will exceed 0.25 inches per hour. Areal average precipitation of 1 to 2 inches in expected with snow across the higher terrain. There is a very localized threat of flash flooding along the steeper slopes of the Sierra/Shasta Range and burn scars where soils are more sensitive.
A significant coastal storm will drive up the Southeast Coast into Offshore Waters of the East Coast through Wednesday. Expect locally heavy to excessive rain for the Coastal Carolinas and hurricane force winds for the Offshore East Coast Waters. A rapidly deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to bring rain to areas along the Northeast Coast into tomorrow, though the heaviest rainfall should remain offshore.
A strong cold front will move through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday and by the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Rain will spread to the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday morning. Within the low pressure system's cold sector, snow is expected through the Lower Great Lakes region and into southeastern Canada. A swath of 4 to 6 inches of snow is forecast for the Lower Great Lakes region into parts of northern New England through Sunday night, and a light glaze of ice is possible there as well. Ahead of the front, the East is expecting temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average on Saturday, but by Sunday, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will see high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average, which is a large temperature swing between Saturday and Sunday. The East coast will cool down as well and last through the upcoming week.
A strong cold front will move through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday and by the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast near the front from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Within the low pressure system's cold sector, snow is expected through the Lower Great Lakes region. A swath of 4 to 6 inches of snow is forecast for the Lower Great Lakes region through Sunday night.
A developing coastal storm approaches the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region later today, with the possibility of a stall off the coast of Maine as well as a rapid plunge of cold air into the system bringing potential for a major snowstorm for the inland regions, particularly the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains, where there is potential of over 18" of heavy wet snow, as well as intense snow rates due to deformational dynamics. In the valleys, totals are expected to be much less, as high boundary layer temperatures will mean most precipitation will fall as rain until the colder airmass arrives. Models have also been suggesting a significant back-end upsloping event is possible, which would hamper cleanup efforts. High QPF numbers combined with an existing snowpack in these regions will lead to flooding concerns in the valleys. To the south, a significant coastal flooding event is forecast due a multitude of factors, including: astronomical high tides due a full moon, easterly winds piling up water along the coastlines, and the rapid intensification of the surface low. Across the entire region, at least 1" of QPF is expected, with the potential for 2" in select locations.