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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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About this blog

An attempt to breakdown the snow results and how the models fared.  May also end up throwing pro forecasts in here as well.  Meant to be interactive and debate driven.  After each storm we track (that happens), I'll provide model snow amounts from the models.  Typically, they will be from all the same run (ie 11-14 0z) and 48-60 hrs away from the end of the storm.  Various methods such as Kuchera, Cobb and Ferrier will be used as well, where available.

Entries in this blog

Two of one two punch

Doing this retrospectively using 3-2 12z model runs in order to include the 48 hr models.  Cuts off a bit of Maine at the end, sorry.  If anyone has the 3-2 12z Euro snow map, please add in comments.  My guess is it won't matter.  I'll toss in the 3-1 12z snow map for now. The results...they were all too far south and underestimated the precip.  When we saw the radar returns heading in, we knew a foot was possible.  Best axis I think is the NMM but its relative to the other models.  I can't even do a poll on this cause they are so far of.  We had 12" in Newtown.  The HDPRS wasn't too bad, but too far south.   TT maps aren't good for the southern edge for this event either.     The models.       Interestingly, the NWS two event forecast vs 2 day total looks pretty good on the southern edge.  Also could be that it was still snowing in those areas as the map only went to 12z.  

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StretchCT

 

One of two punch

3-4  here are the results... we did get 3" in Newtown, but it quickly melted. Tough to judge this one.  Some spots of 4-6 in PA, NJ, LI, RI and MA.  Models either overdid it in PA or in MA, or underdid it in CT.   NWS under did it in NJ/NYC/LI.  If you eliminate the models that put over 6" down in PA and MA, and then the ones that put down less than 2" in CT, you get... the NAM. They've been all over the place, but using the 3-1 0z models for this comparison. NWS forecast this morning from Upton.      

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Midatlantic special

Here's the result.  NWS nailed it compared to the models at least.  For the models, CMC got pretty close.  I'm looking at general ideas here obviously.  Another warm air advection challenge with a mix everywhere requiring pivotal maps when available.  Going 60 hours out at end of storm to get the 3knam in.  Here's the forecast Euro CMC/ICON FV3/GFS Nams  

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Southern NE/HV special

Snow event has the potential to be the second largest of the season, largest of the official season with 2-6 inches in  Hudson Valley/CT/MA/RI.  GFS HRRR are on the low end.  Euro/NAM on high end.  Let's see who wins.  Snow event expected in under 24 hrs.  Maps are fore 12z Tues when its expected to have left the region.  The event is a moderate first few hours in the western portions, but a long term light precip event overall.  Precip enhances eastward.   Some mixing may occur on CT coast. GFS/FV3 Euro/eps control NAM12k/3k   WRFs ICON/CMC RGEM/HDRPS Forecast    

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2-12 storm

Results so far - please post in comments if you find a better snowmap than this and provide link.  This result surprises me mostly in the Binghamton FA.  I'd have to give it to the Canadian this time.   While we wait for the final tally, here are the competitors.  I used pivotal when I could due to sleet.  The short range models were skipped.  Also parts of PA/MD/NJ may have snow from previous storm, since the storm lasted over 24 hrs through ME, I couldn't do 24hr maps.  NWS         

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1-20 storm

Results from the storm.   Here are the 0z Saturday snow maps.  Using pivotal when possible due to high likelihood of sleet corrupting the TT maps. Which one did the best? NAM 3kKuchera and 10:1   CMC 10:1 and Kuchera   Euro 10:1 and Kuchera   GFS 10:1 and Kuchera   HiRes RGEM and RGEM   Icon and FV3 (6z run as 0z wasn't loaded yet)    WRF products (must remember includes sleet qpf as snow)    Accuweather ensemble and Euro ensemble     GFS ensemble and CMC ensemble NAM 12k   RGEM  As mentioned in the storm thread the Nam3k, Icon and WRF ARW2  were the closest to the track. Unfortunately, I don't have any snow maps other than from TT for the WRF which counts sleet as snow.        

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11-15 storm

Results from the storm are preliminary and Maine may be off a bit since its still snowing lightly there today.  We are using the NOHRSC interactive snow map which tallies up the snow reports and bases a map off of them. Lets start with the Euro - not too much variation in the three methods.  Cobb had the least in NJ, CT, NYC and LI. Next the CMC Then the FV3 NAM 12k NAM 3k I'm not even posting the GFS other than the 10:1 as it was atrocious. Every other version was less.

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StretchCT

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