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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

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About this blog

An attempt to breakdown the snow results and how the models fared.  May also end up throwing pro forecasts in here as well.  Meant to be interactive and debate driven.  After each storm we track (that happens), I'll provide model snow amounts from the models.  Typically, they will be from all the same run (ie 11-14 0z) and 48-60 hrs away from the end of the storm.  Various methods such as Kuchera, Cobb and Ferrier will be used as well, where available.

Entries in this blog

2-12 storm

Results so far - please post in comments if you find a better snowmap than this and provide link.  This result surprises me mostly in the Binghamton FA.  I'd have to give it to the Canadian this time.   While we wait for the final tally, here are the competitors.  I used pivotal when I could due to sleet.  The short range models were skipped.  Also parts of PA/MD/NJ may have snow from previous storm, since the storm lasted over 24 hrs through ME, I couldn't do 24hr maps.  NWS         

StretchCT

StretchCT

1-20 storm

Results from the storm.   Here are the 0z Saturday snow maps.  Using pivotal when possible due to high likelihood of sleet corrupting the TT maps. Which one did the best? NAM 3kKuchera and 10:1   CMC 10:1 and Kuchera   Euro 10:1 and Kuchera   GFS 10:1 and Kuchera   HiRes RGEM and RGEM   Icon and FV3 (6z run as 0z wasn't loaded yet)    WRF products (must remember includes sleet qpf as snow)    Accuweather ensemble and Euro ensemble     GFS ensemble and CMC ensemble NAM 12k   RGEM  As mentioned in the storm thread the Nam3k, Icon and WRF ARW2  were the closest to the track. Unfortunately, I don't have any snow maps other than from TT for the WRF which counts sleet as snow.        

StretchCT

StretchCT

 

11-15 storm

Results from the storm are preliminary and Maine may be off a bit since its still snowing lightly there today.  We are using the NOHRSC interactive snow map which tallies up the snow reports and bases a map off of them. Lets start with the Euro - not too much variation in the three methods.  Cobb had the least in NJ, CT, NYC and LI. Next the CMC Then the FV3 NAM 12k NAM 3k I'm not even posting the GFS other than the 10:1 as it was atrocious. Every other version was less.

StretchCT

StretchCT

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