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Turkey day/ gobble gobble storm on its way?

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So I mentioned yesterday I was starting to get an inkling of a long range storm coming around the 25th.  

Well after watching some modeled rrwt point correlated areas like the Bering sea and east Asia I believe the date may be more like the 22-23rd that has caught my eye.

Now organic forecasting works best in truly anomalous scenarios and currently the look in the Bering sea has a 504dam closed ULL forecasted to ride the east coast into a possible Rex block downstream with a slightly +pna signal

see below IMG_5350.thumb.GIF.a3c464408d6f8645dc43bcc3f0fac150.GIFIMG_5356.JPG.213023ead32d0287e3354f5670187221.JPGIMG_5360.thumb.PNG.6a042b102ff76927c50ed36382477d31.PNG

12z gif is up top with a height anomaly look from 12zgfs next and the recent 18z trend of evening deepening the closed low a bit further

here are the 48hr wpc forecasts 



They are impressive and notice how the surface lp tracks just to the South along the aleutians.... this predicted path would correlate to a miller A type storm originating in or near the Gulf of Mexico. Remember the Bering sea rrwt point correlation is ~19days till correlation to the Central/Eastern US

As for the EAR we are still in the hr300+ range and forecasts in east Asia are incredibly volatile even in the short range.  But here is a loop from 18z today showing an 8 day lag to a system that would correlate here on the 22-23rd



The soi also spiked yesterday just above +15 daily, it had around a 4pt drop today and I will continue to watch and see if it can fall over 20pts in a 5-7 day period.  At that point I like to look just under three weeks out from the weighted avg drop period. Graphic below.


So for now I'll keep an eye out for the coming period of the 8-9th for possible development (wet period in the northeast for sure) and also a period that a thread was started for... 12-15th.

the 12-15 period looks like a late bloomer on a boundary that could bring a storm from the cape islands into Maine.  I posted a little in thread about the organic signals available and if time warrants maybe I'll expand tomorrow a little more.

But for now I'm fixated on the turkey day signal as it's blinking pretty steadily in my head.

Cheers all!!  Please feel free to comment or post questions.  I don't mind PMs either.  Howe we I can help....


PS- I'd be remiss without mentioning one of our own, @jdrenken, for seeding my interest into rossby and kelvins waves way back in the day.  Without his knowledge and tutelage, I would never had the chance into becoming the enthusiast I am the today.  Long range signaling and forecasting is one of my favorite hobbys, and I do hope that some of my posts and entries helps someone find that same interest I once did.  

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