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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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Turkey day/ gobble gobble storm on its way?

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Poconosnow

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So I mentioned yesterday I was starting to get an inkling of a long range storm coming around the 25th.  

Well after watching some modeled rrwt point correlated areas like the Bering sea and east Asia I believe the date may be more like the 22-23rd that has caught my eye.

Now organic forecasting works best in truly anomalous scenarios and currently the look in the Bering sea has a 504dam closed ULL forecasted to ride the east coast into a possible Rex block downstream with a slightly +pna signal

see below IMG_5350.thumb.GIF.a3c464408d6f8645dc43bcc3f0fac150.GIFIMG_5356.JPG.213023ead32d0287e3354f5670187221.JPGIMG_5360.thumb.PNG.6a042b102ff76927c50ed36382477d31.PNG

12z gif is up top with a height anomaly look from 12zgfs next and the recent 18z trend of evening deepening the closed low a bit further

here are the 48hr wpc forecasts 

IMG_5358.GIF.f7b2e608061363347d3044b64be77b07.GIF

IMG_5359.GIF.95eb4d1598475c84c0ca210e59ffd834.GIF

They are impressive and notice how the surface lp tracks just to the South along the aleutians.... this predicted path would correlate to a miller A type storm originating in or near the Gulf of Mexico. Remember the Bering sea rrwt point correlation is ~19days till correlation to the Central/Eastern US

As for the EAR we are still in the hr300+ range and forecasts in east Asia are incredibly volatile even in the short range.  But here is a loop from 18z today showing an 8 day lag to a system that would correlate here on the 22-23rd

IMG_5364.thumb.GIF.d776836cf9da8826d27072b3e654e95b.GIF

 

The soi also spiked yesterday just above +15 daily, it had around a 4pt drop today and I will continue to watch and see if it can fall over 20pts in a 5-7 day period.  At that point I like to look just under three weeks out from the weighted avg drop period. Graphic below.

IMG_5315.thumb.PNG.afed82896dd64f86517a84dc2bc188ce.PNG

So for now I'll keep an eye out for the coming period of the 8-9th for possible development (wet period in the northeast for sure) and also a period that a thread was started for... 12-15th.

the 12-15 period looks like a late bloomer on a boundary that could bring a storm from the cape islands into Maine.  I posted a little in thread about the organic signals available and if time warrants maybe I'll expand tomorrow a little more.

But for now I'm fixated on the turkey day signal as it's blinking pretty steadily in my head.

Cheers all!!  Please feel free to comment or post questions.  I don't mind PMs either.  Howe we I can help....

 

PS- I'd be remiss without mentioning one of our own, @jdrenken, for seeding my interest into rossby and kelvins waves way back in the day.  Without his knowledge and tutelage, I would never had the chance into becoming the enthusiast I am the today.  Long range signaling and forecasting is one of my favorite hobbys, and I do hope that some of my posts and entries helps someone find that same interest I once did.  

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