So I did post much of this in the fall thread but I've decided to combine it all here
here are the current loops of the bsr signal from the 21-23 and a unique frame depicting some critical components...
(I will update gifs when the 23rd overlay is available)
The last picture is from the 21st valid 0z
I circled three things: An upper level low pressure stretching from the north Gulf of Mexico to the coastal Gulf Stream. A upper level high pressure just to the North of Vermont, and finally another upper level low in a position near 50/50 (50 degrees latitude/longitude).
Each ingredient when combined can detail a track of a surface lp up the leeward side of the apps until it slows from a buckled flow downstream due to the "50/50 low" and the the High Pressure it pumps into a near Rex block look. This allows the storms ULL to catch up with the surface low and transfer somewhere on coast between Delmarva and CT.
Now this won't be a 1:1 correlation but we can use it to signal a period and give us clues as to the pattern at hand.
East Asia is still a little far out to apply a correlate there(modeling for Japan is very volatile and anything over 5 days out can have major swings), however models have been tinkering with storms around the 9-10th and the 16-17th. Lagtime for storms that hit Japan are usually between 6-10 days. I usually prefer a 6-8 correlation when I apply it.
Now to touch on something I've been monitoring. The Southern oscillation index is an old school tool that was mainly used to monitor enso conditions in the equatorial pacific. But recently many practitioners of the the organic forecasting method have surmised that a large anomalous drop of lets say 20pts or greater in a 3-7 day span will correlate to east coast storminess 2-3 weeks later.
Well seeing the signal for the 22nd on the bsr made me watch the latest soi rise closely. And just on cue it has plummeted from over 15 to .25 in three days. I'm gonna guess it will bottom out maybe Monday. Using my caveman correlation of the mean daily drop calculation weighted to the date range in which it occurred has it just about in sync for the 22nd. See graph below
Lastly here are some loops of the gobble gobble signal storm that's currently riding the spine of the aleutians...
If I can find time this weekend maybe I'll talk a bit about a storm that may be occurring around the 13-15th... there is some ofm noise jumping out but clearly the turkey day signal is what's the most interesting right now in the world of long range organic pattern signaling. 🙂