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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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The pattern is the pattern, until it's not

UTSwiinii

405

Well folks, it's no secret that we've been uber soaked since sometime in early July. With upper level low pressure systems cutting off to our west (pumping southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico region) bumping up against High Pressure in the Atlantic (pumping warm moisture laden air off the ocean, also from the south - southeast, there has been no shortage of moisture, even on dry days (due to high humidity values). 

As if, sometimes, the case - the pattern of atmospheric waves and wave breaks can become redundant - taking some equal or greater force to "break" the pattern. This summer has also featured a more prevalent "pattern" of higher heights (High Pressure) residing mainly in the west. This allows troughs to dip into the east. And, from the department of redundancy department, we see this setting up yet again in the weather modeling for the next  week. 

This map shows the energy bundles within the jet stream - yellow are lowest areas of pressure (red the deepest within the yellow fields). The green arrows denote the flow - yep, more "yuck"

 

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Note the date projected - next Tuesday, the 14th. So we expect the pattern to remain stuck until that feature "resolves" (fills in and moves along). What might do that, you may ask? We can look well to the west - to the East, as in East Asia. 

Here we see Typhoon Shanshan. You have heard me speak of the "Typhoon Rule", many times in the past. 

 

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The Typhoon Rule dictates that should a Typhoon recurve (shown in arrows) prior to the Prefecture of Japan, a resulting trough will come to the East within 7 days. Wait, what's that? Another trough? Yep, but this trough seems to be capable of being a bully boy and should be sufficient to dislodge the stubborn Atlantic High, at least for a moderate window of time (more than 2-3 days) - actually, displace it is a better term, so that it shunts south even more. Moreover, the ridge (high pressure) out west, also gets tamped down from the very strong values seen over the past 6- 8 weeks.  So, that around the 18th, we see potential wave "break" - pattern break, if you will. This is signaled by the Bering Sea Rule as we move towards 8/20.  Notice the "L"'s out west, and the H now moving below mid Florida instead of northeast of mid Florida. This small move is important, because it shunts the "flow" from the Gulf (essentially cuts it off) and at the same time also eliminates the Atlantic moisture feed - this is southwest flow which is warm and relatively dry. 

 

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So, we'll see if the Organic Forecasting "Rules" can combine to dry us out before we start to eye the Tropical Atlantic and its peak season which is swiftly approaching. 

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NWS CTP has this to say (warn, caution, alert, etc) about days before then. 

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LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models and ensembles remain in very good agreement in closing off an upper low over the OH Valley by Sunday. This system will slowly unwind and drift into the Northeast through midweek. As the upper trough/closed low digs and sharpens over the east- central U.S., expect an unsettled and wet pattern to unfold across much of central PA through early next week. This pattern could develop into a heavy rainfall threat considering slow system movement, very wet antecedent conditions and prolonged southerly fetch of deep moisture over several days. h/t WPC: Closed lows in the summer can be underestimated in the medium range in terms of precipitation intensity/amounts and longevity. If this event verifies, it will likely move several long-term climate sites up the rankings to the wettest summer (JJA) on record.

 

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7 days eh? Planning on doing a pool and picnic with wife and kids up at Little Buffalo St. Park Wed. the 15th to celebrate my 67th. Time will surely tell.

Edited by Cignus

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First let me say a UTS blog is awesome! I know this will be a great destination on the site cause you have so much knowledge to offer and share. As for the pattern its the dog days pattern and exceptional humidity and dews have been here on the Island going on the 3rd week now. Just thick haze of tropical moisture and hot sun to boot. I don't see this pattern changing at least in the near term, 5, 8, 10 days perhaps? Who knows but when that strong cold front comes down there will be quite the severe outbreak I suspect so keep the posts coming. 👍

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Certainly not a horrible H5 connection for this time period.

gfs_z500_vort_us_4.thumb.png.3e8c59044f9cd917c735a3c80de3d0e5.png

Going further, I have read about a potential home grown tropical system upcoming for early September in the ECONUS Gulf and/or Atlantic. I noticed recent RRWT analogs are signaling such context.

DlOe8ROW4AELKzv.jpg

It will be interesting to watch evolve! Thanks for sharing the BSR and EAR outlooks. Also just a reminder, stormhamster.com hosts EAR teleconnection images too! I think they always make for great images concerning the CONUS when there are multiple Typhoons in play. 🙂

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