Well folks, it's no secret that we've been uber soaked since sometime in early July. With upper level low pressure systems cutting off to our west (pumping southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico region) bumping up against High Pressure in the Atlantic (pumping warm moisture laden air off the ocean, also from the south - southeast, there has been no shortage of moisture, even on dry days (due to high humidity values).
As if, sometimes, the case - the pattern of atmospheric waves and wave breaks can become redundant - taking some equal or greater force to "break" the pattern. This summer has also featured a more prevalent "pattern" of higher heights (High Pressure) residing mainly in the west. This allows troughs to dip into the east. And, from the department of redundancy department, we see this setting up yet again in the weather modeling for the next week.
This map shows the energy bundles within the jet stream - yellow are lowest areas of pressure (red the deepest within the yellow fields). The green arrows denote the flow - yep, more "yuck"
Note the date projected - next Tuesday, the 14th. So we expect the pattern to remain stuck until that feature "resolves" (fills in and moves along). What might do that, you may ask? We can look well to the west - to the East, as in East Asia.
Here we see Typhoon Shanshan. You have heard me speak of the "Typhoon Rule", many times in the past.
The Typhoon Rule dictates that should a Typhoon recurve (shown in arrows) prior to the Prefecture of Japan, a resulting trough will come to the East within 7 days. Wait, what's that? Another trough? Yep, but this trough seems to be capable of being a bully boy and should be sufficient to dislodge the stubborn Atlantic High, at least for a moderate window of time (more than 2-3 days) - actually, displace it is a better term, so that it shunts south even more. Moreover, the ridge (high pressure) out west, also gets tamped down from the very strong values seen over the past 6- 8 weeks. So, that around the 18th, we see potential wave "break" - pattern break, if you will. This is signaled by the Bering Sea Rule as we move towards 8/20. Notice the "L"'s out west, and the H now moving below mid Florida instead of northeast of mid Florida. This small move is important, because it shunts the "flow" from the Gulf (essentially cuts it off) and at the same time also eliminates the Atlantic moisture feed - this is southwest flow which is warm and relatively dry.
So, we'll see if the Organic Forecasting "Rules" can combine to dry us out before we start to eye the Tropical Atlantic and its peak season which is swiftly approaching.