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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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Trough Train Kept a Rollin'

UTSwiinii

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In an old standard of jazz/rhythm, Tiny Bradshaw sang of a train that kept a rollin' (all night long). It comes to mind when I see images such as this one: train.thumb.JPG.d1c7e4cc5894635067b816c35d659de4.JPG

 

The image is of the Pacific basin and, as you can see, it's a veritable traffic jam of troughs - some spawned from tropically based storms, others from "standard" gales. Each of these, obviously, whether separately or ensemble, have to translate to the east and visit the NA continent. The form and fashion in which they do so will have large bearing (Bering?) on what we shall see in the next 10-15 days. In my post from a few days ago, I posited that Shanshan would induce an Eastern trough via response to the Typhoon Rule. That notion is, slowly showing up on the computer weather models. Note (in green) the flow changes from what we have, at present, to a reversal of sorts - trough west, ridge east.  As you know, the ridges bring the warmth/troughs bring cool air aloft. The alteration of the "flow" would bring about a much welcome break - drier warmer air, as opposed to the humid "crud" plaguing the pattern for most of this summer season. 

untitled.thumb.png.ba0116dc9861c1449a1266d9740bb7b1.png

 

Here's to hoping  the light at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train (wreck). These energies and their travel down the wave train track, will be hard for computers to sort out, so confidence is muted just a wee bit in those solutions. But leaning on OFM (organic forecasting methods) I believe this will work out well for the wet weary among us. 🙂

 

 

 

 

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IMO at some point we are going to see a change and I believe an abrupt one not gradual. With all this heat and humidity I like the prospect of a deep trough dropping in down the road with a strong cold front and running into this muck. Possibly see severe weather widespread with that scenario. Looking towards mid-late 4th week of August for a change.

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