Obviously, we've been stuck in a rut, a muddy rut at that - nay, a dangerously muddy rut. More than just a nuisance for many in the eastern parts of PA, especially along terrain, the pattern is one that can't move on quickly enough. The reports I've seen and heard rival that of damage from Agnes and Lee! 😮 Here's a look at just the past 24hours of rainfall (estimated)
I don't have to tell you about the rain for the past 3 weeks, let alone pretty much since early July - the soils structure, even with full blown summer flora supporting, can't take any more. Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains dangerously low.
Can we see any hope in sight? Well, I've been looking for a ridge structure (high pressure) shift in orientation that would bring some drier conditions and a change to the outlook. Refer to prior posts for details of those thoughts - let's look at some recent computer modeling to see if the weekend (I call it ~20th -IOW a week from now) offers any hope.
Well, not exactly - we do have ridging along the east (orange "humps") and the trough is mid country (blues) with the heart of it in Canada (dark blue tight circles). The question becomes, can that hold? We see the strongest Atlantic ridging still residing in the Central to Eastern position, as opposed to a more western orientation. The gang from Weather World has this to say about the beginning of the time period we're looking at - a signal that we finally get under a ridge, even if briefly.
Turning summer!!? Hooray. But again, we have to wonder if the pattern is truly broken. Again, we go to computer imaging to help. This time, we'll munch some spaghetti, as in spaghetti charts. These charts are a representation of several runs of the same computer model, but with slightly differing initial conditions fed into the computers (and run at slightly weaker resolution) - the white lines are the main (deterministic) run of the model - the colored lines represent the ensemble "members" (each different run of the same model). Where the colored lines are closer to the white, we have more confidence that the white (main run) is correct. In this instance, the (red) lines which are the ones we're most interested in, are further north than the white. This suggests that the jet stream will stay north of PA and we need that to be the case to blunt the effect of what would, otherwise, be another trough. Note too the white circles down over the southeast US and near Bahama/Bermuda part of the Atlantic - that signals that the ridge "may" be trying to reorient into a favorable position for drier (but still a touch humid) weather - less deluge rain, more in the way of pop up showers (not heavy rain showers) for the days after the 20th.
So if we can just hang in there another 5+ days, without too much more (or any) further damage, we may FINALLY try to dry things out in more than meager fashion. I know the folks in the Lehigh Valley and Wyoming Valley, will certainly welcome it (not to mention the soggy but lesser affected regions of Central PA)