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The Blob

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Noticing that the Blob is re-appearing.  This patch of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska was predominant in the winter of 13-14 which was a cold and snowy one for the NE.


The BLOB of 2013-14

Also noticing on the gif of the daily anomalies for the last week, it may be dissipating.  ERSL SST's


Others have noticed its return as well.  





Should note that the ENSO signal for 13-14 was a weak La Nina to neutral, so not comparable to this year's weak Nino.  13-14 was cold in the East and I had 58" of snow

2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7

Now before you get excited seeing the El nino conditions appearing in 2014, the blob had already spread out along the PAC coast by then.  2014 was also cold in the East and I again got 58"  of snow.  Note, my guesstimate for snow in my backyard for this year is 45-55" and leaning toward the 50-55" range. 


So I'm not really sure how much affect the blob has.  It forms due to already existing atmospheric conditions and per linked sources, doesn't control the atmosphere, rather at that latitude, the atmosphere controls it.  If the blob moves in the way it did in 2014-15, then combined with a weak nino, I could end up flipping to a colder forecast.  

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I've had my eye on it for a while now. I think there's always the chance this warm pool dissipates. But I also think if it hangs on then we may see a persistent +PNA that would deliver the cold air into the east consistently. Then with the nino we could see plenty of juice out of the southern jet. If all that worked out just so then it could be a snowy year on the east coast, possibly more so than anyone really expects right now.

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