Weak low pressure will track off of the New Jersey coast today, and east of Montauk tonight. This will bring rain to the area along with an easterly breeze. Temperatures will be close to or below average due to the rain. The Tri-State Region will then warm into the 60s on Tuesday as winds become southerly. Another cold frontal passage however will produce additional rain during the day, with a few embedded thunderstorms also possible.
Severe storms are expected along and ahead of a cold front stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Potentially significant severe weather threat capable of damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and large hail is expected overnight into Tuesday from northern Mississippi across Tennessee and into central Kentucky. A frontal system over the western U.S. is forecast to drop southeast into the central Plains later today.
On Thursday, the flash flood threat is greatest along the central Gulf Coast states, as well as into portions of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes, shifting eastward into the Northeast on Friday as this portion of the front begins lifting northward as a warm front. Across the central Gulf Coast states, severe weather with the main threats being tornadoes and damaging winds, will also be possible and SPC has this region within a slight risk on Thursday.
...Widespread heavy rainfall expected near a cold front from the southern Plains/Gulf Coast northward to the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes through Thursday night... Hazards associated with this frontal system will be heavy rain. Two to four inches of rain is forecast from southeastern Texas into and along the central Gulf Coast through Thursday, with similar totals (locally higher) from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley through early Thursday night.
A coastal low will impact the region tonight and Saturday. A digging upper level trough over the eastern US will interact with an area of low pressure moving up the coast. As the low moves up the coast, it will interact with the off shore high pressure system that retreats to the north. As a result, expect a wind driven, heavy rain event tonight (mainly after midnight) through Saturday morning for most places.
A new cold front will be crossing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight as a large area of cool and dry high pressure noses across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and toward the Eastern Seaboard through Thursday and Friday. The cold air dropping southeast across the Great Lakes region through tonight and early Thursday is likely to result in some lake-effect rain and snow showers for areas downwind of the lakes.
A cold front will move across the region Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, interacting with tropical moisture from Michael, resulting in the threat of heavy rainfall. Showers, and possible thunderstorms, will develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night, resulting in moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts are expected to average between 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
A western trough is going to build this weekend and multiple impulses will come off it to create a spring-like severe weather threat for the Plains. Day 1 of the thread.. low pressure embedded in strong southwesterlies aloft. Notice the weak winds over the western US with a very strong Pacific jet pushing in... As you can expect from early fall, moisture will certainly be present. 24 hours later, the cold front is about to stall out roughly at latitude 40N.