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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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  1. Past hour
  2. MaineJay

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    6z GFS is coming in a bit more amped, it was the least, so it wouldn't be a surprise.
  3. Drunckle 00z ..... 😄😀😐🤔❄️😆😂
  4. FV3 is a non stop train of storms. I'm not 100%, but I believe those are Rossby waves traversing the Pacific. It has a messy esteem trof in this time frame. Vet unsettled weather.
  5. MaineJay

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I still have close to 2 feet of snow in my backyard, it had been melting nice and slow, I really don't want to drop 2" of rain on it. I don't mind it melting, just not all at once. WPC QPF
  6. KENNYP2339

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I had my doubts of even a storm forming, never the less it being a coastal storm; but alas, it seems to be happening, but the snow line is was up north, like central mass and points north at this point, and thing can change and I will now take this threat more serious.
  7. MaineJay

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Crazy how aggressive the EPS has become, from a lone member showing something moving up the coast, to the entire suite in 36-48 hours. You won't see the ECMWF family shift to significantly veyp often. H5 with spread MSLP with spread
  8. MaineJay

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    These are all the pieces of energy involved in this system, all that interaction, and all but one piece poorly, if at all, sampled.
  9. Today
  10. MaineJay

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    The WFOs are stumped as well. Very low confidence forecast. I'll remind folks that there are those of us that don't only track snow, we track weather. I'll keep harping on the tides, as it might end up being the greatest impact. Boston. GYX QPFHSD
  11. PlanetMaster

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Wow how bad are the models? Especially the Euro, had an historic Nor'easter 8 days ago, then promptly moved it out to sea 1000 miles away a couple days later, then had no storm 4 days ago, moved on to another Nor' Easter 36 hours ago and now has an inland runner. Whats next? Apps runner? GLC? And the other models haven't faired well either, all over the place, except for the FV3 which leaves me at a loss for any further words.
  12. PlanetMaster

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    bastardi_031819b.mp4
  13. TheRealDavid

    Spring 2019

    Models have trended wetter for the latter part of the work week. I see two systems tracking through the GL. TWN, TWC, EC have all gone cloudier as a result
  14. suvyerdise

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Gee willikars, I wonder what can be causing that year after year in the same place. I'm sure it's just "chance", lol.
  15. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...the latest NCEP/CPC ENSO diagnostic is in...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...the SST's in Nino Region 1+2 are blooming...the thermocline is diving off the coast of SA...another OKW is on it's way...looking like a 'whale' shaped blob of warm water than will again hit the coast of SA....and this water appears to have the highest anomalies embedded in it since this El Nino began to form...unusual, yes, yet this is not unprecedented ...El Nino's can 'peak' at different times of the year...especially now that westerly wind anomalies have been present in the middle and eastern Pacific equatorial regions...
  16. Uscg ast

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    With 850s like that and an LP bombing.. I do not see 925s overriding 850s PAGE TOPPER BOOM "Behind every angry woman is a man who has absolutely no idea what he did wrong."
  17. StretchCT

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Trend for the GEFS - now at the point where it would rain for a lot of us even if in January. Look at 850s Too bad about the surface temps
  18. StretchCT

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Dude check out the thread after this one
  19. thedarkestclouds

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Several days of NAEFS runs with dark reds in the east vs one GFS run (and an 18Z one at that) that has blues and purples? I mean, nothing is 100% certain, but I'd be pretty shocked if the GFS was victorious here. Also worth noting is that, yes, when you have a persistent mega-ridge that covers all of Alaska and a large portion of northwest Canada, the odds are against persistent above-normal temps in the eastern US at any time of year. But, as winter continues to fade into spring (aka, the pool of bitterly cold air in the arctic gets smaller), a ridge in Alaska becomes considerably less predictive of a trough in the east. It's the same reasoning as to why the NAO, PNA, EPO, etc tell you much less about US temperatures during the warmer months.
  20. MotownWX

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Oh I have Sunday circled on my calendar. Forecast is 56 and sunny. Gotta happen. :)
  21. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    The next warm up for the east should come when the storm later this week in the SW shoves the warmth east. It'll be similar to before with how Michigan and PA were not advertised to warm up too much, but then Detroit hit 57F and 65F, and Philly got to near 80F. CPC has most of the East warm for the 6-10 and 8-14 at high probabilities.
  22. CMC - 500mb looked pretty good, if it were the beginning of March. But the surface woudn't even work in January - typical of this year
  23. MotownWX

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Yeah, does seem like my mid-upper 50s are being replaced by upper 40s, low 50s in the long range. Looks like a pinwheel of sorts sets up in Eastern Canada. Still nicer than these upper 30s, low 40s I have now. But I think my 6th below normal March in 7 years may still happen. And Alaska... wow. Unbelievable.
  24. That's crazy. Adding the pivotal to show snow in SC...at the end of march.
  25. Yesterday
  26. 18Z FV3-GFS totals
  27. ClicheVortex2014

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    The cold tongue extending just north of the Nino 1+2 region is curious. It's not an error, it's showing up on every source.
  28. Gets cut off or stalled for a while. Then, heads east over the Atlantic. Beasty!
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