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  1. Past hour
  2. It's my pleasure to welcome some me additions and promotions to our staff! Welcoming to the moderating team @Hiramite @Wx_WhatWX? @lynniethelurker will be moving from the social media team and into a moderator role. Appreciate your willingness to keep the riff raff in line. And moving from moderator to administrator, severe weather expert, @ClicheVortex2014 Again, warm welcome to the new staff, a congratulations to the promotees, and a big thanks for taking on these roles!
  3. Saturday could be a scorcher, really hope this eases as we get closer. Average high for PWM on the 20th is about 78°, record is 96°. No lo quiero. GYX, triple digits is just not common up here ECMWF 2pm temps for the week in spoiler.
  4. Today
  5. My area was nice and green also until about the last week in June.Then the storms kept missing me. OH well, I'll let nature do its thing and let it go dormant until the moisture returns.
  6. In the Southwest US, it looks like the ACE Index for the Atlantic Hurricane season is a very strong indicator for how the following winter will be during a La Nina. The great, BS, Dust Bowl, super hot, super dry winters of legend - 1933-34, and 2005-06 are both over 250 on the ACE Index. Those winters had less than a quarter inch of precipitation and record heat. 2017-18 was at 225, largely saved from record heat or dryness by the great SOI crash of February 2018. Just something to keep in mind. Not expecting a La Nina, just trying to refine my methods for future La Ninas in the Southwest.
  7. Get to ride 25 miles Friday for the soldier ride... really hope for some clouds to keep it cooler in the morning
  8. ...um...idee's 'Hint' of this on the Summer 2019 thread... ...and astutely answered by @lynniethelurker : "Ring Of Fire"?
  9. The older I get the more I despise the heart of summer.
  10. Still no 100F readings in Albuquerque as of 7/15/19 - last time that happened was at the last solar minimum in 2008 and 2009. Going to be hot this week, so we'll have a shot at hitting 100F by the weekend. But I think we stay below. Only 26/88 years - 30% - since 1931 have hit 100F on any day between 7/16 and 12/31 in Albuquerque. Trade off I suppose is that we're having a pretty extended spell where every day is 95F+ with relatively high (for us) dewpoints (45-55 degree dewpoints).
  11. Yesterday
  12. Jamstec had a very hot Fall nationally. The warmth in Nino 3.4 lasted long enough into Spring/June, that I'd expect someone to be pretty hot in August/September. Probably not the Midwest. It will be the South or the West most likely. October is relatively unaffected by ENSO, but it does respond to the AMO, and it has warmed, so I'd expect October to be pretty warm too, although I haven't looked at it specifically. My outlook for Summer was only through September. October is always the key month - parts of the national pattern that setup in October will remain features through the following May.
  13. Despite a temperature of 86 at 5:45pm, it does not feel too bad. Thanks to a northwest wind and a RH of 38% and Dewpoint of 57
  14. As promised here is a pic of what most of the lawns look like . Not just my neighborhood but the general area as there was a sharp cutoff of the heavy rain that felt the last 3 weeks. I was in the no rain or very little rain zone. Storms are in the forecast Wednesday & Thursday before the big time heat moves in on Friday. If I miss out on those rains, this area will be a dust bowl.
  15. The CPC is liking the idea of this starting early next week. I am slightly less upset with the upcoming heat since there are some good signs it will hopefully be pushed out after Sunday.
  16. Not sure where this belongs, but impressive rain rates at the house currently:
  17. Looks a lot like 2013 in the Great Lakes if this were to materialize, only the cooldown would come a few days later this year. In 2013, it came on July 21.
  18. For the Great Lakes, it will likely depend on whether El Nino tries to restrengthen or not. If it does, I would expect a fall similar to last year (Cold/wet October-November but with a tame start to winter). If not, the other way around is a possibility. Based on current guidance with ENSO Neutral continuing into fall and winter, I'd say the latter scenario is more likely and that a warmer and drier fall at least compared to last year is likely. Last year, we saw that El Nino developed more rapidly in the fall than the summer which resulted in a hot summer but cooler fall. This year, as El Nino has recently weakened, the pattern for the past month has been quite warm after our lacklustre spring.
  19. Now with that said, the heat and humidity will not be the only issue to deal with on Saturday. The second issue will be a weak, wavy frontal boundary that will be in the vicinity of the Lower Lakes. This boundary will likely become the focus for a convectively enhanced shortwave(possible MCS) to track along and bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Despite the chance of afternoon showers and storms, the majority of the time should be rain free. As was previously mentioned, the pattern developing is a classic textbook for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML plumes) to work from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. BUFKIT sounding profiles continue to suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg c/km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this significant? The EML, in combination with the aforementioned weak frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse rates will all provide the potential for strong to severe convection. Don`t forget there also could be the potential for an MCS. In fact, a study done by Ekster and Banacos found that on severe weather days when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained numerous high end severe weather reports. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
  20. Kbuf ..Potential for Flash Flooding late Tuesday night and Wednesday... Tuesday night will be the first of many warm muggy nights. A southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to advect the remnant tropical moisture from Barry which will eventually increase PWAT values up to 2.25 inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening will increase in coverage late in the night with the arrival of a 30kt LLJ. While this flow will provide some storm motion, PWAT values will be at the outer fringes of our climatological extremes. The warm airmass will also support efficient warm-rain processes. This can produce heavy rainfall rates with the most vulnerable locations being across the Southern Tier due to terrain, and urban areas. Model QPF is variable, and there is not enough forecast confidence to pin down a location for a Flood Watch yet, but this may be considered by later shifts.
  21. Winds from Lake Charles NWS And sampling from NO/BR office - rest are here. Stats are hard to put together. These are from the "last 3 hrs" and the rainfall amounts are last 12 hrs. No storm totals that I can find in any PIS. Case in point, the official rainfall map is only 24hrs ending 7am today.
  22. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/15/deluge-louisiana-delayed-not-denied-barrys-perplexing-precipitation-finally-delivers/?utm_term=.547fa8af1b1f#click=https://t.co/2pCgdM99GQ
  23. Hope for a slow transition from Summer to Winter. This maybe be my last Fall in Chicago (and my last Fall I'll ever experience) before I move west next year. Cool, crisp, sunny mornings and lots of colorful leaves is my wish.
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