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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/21/2018 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    Looks like downsloping winds so coastal plain should see the bulk of the heating (I-95 corridor) back in the western areas warm but not excessive. Gotta watch the DP's, with this originating in a different part of the country then the last bout of heat one could say less humid conditions are probable but will have to wait and see for that with all the moisture still in the ground I could see the first day or two of the heat being pretty bad with low 90's and high dps as we evaporate the surface but then do a flip of higher temps and lower dews.
  2. 2 points
    Thanks to all who were involved in making this happen. I have followed the accuweather forums for many years, seldom posted because, after all, I know nothing. I am very glad to have somewhere to follow the discussions of those who do know something.
  3. 2 points
    So I don't know why we all try to predict the future winter weather season. The farmers almanac has already done that for us. Warm and rain for the Northeast......... This is all in sarcasm of course. I don't think they have predicted a correct winter in 100 years Keep up the good work in here guys!!! Excited for the new site
  4. 2 points
    hoping i saw cliche on here. Thx for the forum
  5. 2 points
    @ClicheVortex2014 nice to see you, welcome aboard.
  6. 1 point
    Think it's time to start talking about the elephant in the room. So after scanning ensembles and the entrenched eastern ridge that looks to dominate the end of month to potentially early September. 12z GFS has 90s starting in the DC/Baltimore region starting on the 26th and lasting until it goes into low rez range. Hope nobody put their A/C units away yet...
  7. 1 point
    Looks like we are getting redefinition of the warm front again that stopped right at the PA/MD border then dropped down and looks to be again on the move. Watch where the line from the west meets up with the warm front region there may be some strong turning of winds in the low levels that set off some tornadic potential saw this earlier in southern MD and central southern PA (alleghany area) as it was trying to make a push northward. Still need to watch this with wind potential also flooding may start to become a concern as flow aloft is starting to align. Still think area from Harrisburg on east and to the south of this line need to watch out for severe potential. 998mb low in summer, and strengthening a bit, not a normal situation maybe a sign of the season change in the next few weeks.
  8. 1 point
    One of my go to maps on the Meso site - one can see the lift and crossover residing in W parts of the region. If I'd see a bit more crossover in the eastern zones of PA and into NJ, then I'd say we have a problem Houston. Without it, I have doubts as to the sustainability of action where there is not currently at least -5MULI. This seems to be a situation where CAD is keeping the eastern zones, relatively, shielded (above 40N). It's very weak, but we have surface high of the ME coast and that seems to be pushing low level "crud" as a muting influence.
  9. 1 point
    Yeah figured we would probably still have to deal with afternoon storms. Just wish the stickiness would let up. Feels like this has been going on forever.
  10. 1 point
    12z GFS cranks up the thermostat to end the month. Will probably need to get a heat wave thread going before long if it comes close to verifying...seems like pretty good ensemble support from what i'm seeing to.
  11. 1 point
    Ok, I see how this works now. Still learning the mechanics here. Yeah, rained in Newtown, NYC and in between.
  12. 1 point
    Hey all, been a lurker at accuweather for a long while. Very much an amateur, but I really enjoy the topic of winter predictions. Anyway, I've made an excel spreadsheet where I put in data from my local noaa reporting station (north central Iowa). It only goes back to 2005 though. But I compare the monthly average temperature and snowfall totals against different predictions. I wanted to see just how accurate these predictions are... for my location anyway. After reading the comment about the farmers almanac always being wrong, I had to chime in. Remember too, there is the "Farmers Almanac" (FA) and the "Old Farmers Almanac" (OFA). They do pretty much the same thing, but are completely seperate publications. Funny enough, OFA has been pretty spot on for us for quite a few years in regard to temperature... except last year. Lol. Here is a picture of what I have. Dark green means spot on, dark red means way off, and yellow is maybe or "yes and no". If anyone is interested, i can see about uploading the file later and you're welcome to fact check me.
  13. 1 point
  14. 1 point
  15. 1 point
    Best scientific minds in the world can't really nail down temps and precip more than a few days out. But the almanac can tell you the temp and p type 6 months out. Wish they sold a lottery number book. 😂
  16. 1 point
  17. 1 point
    I use the Jamstec stats for Modoki figures, but I hesitate to refer to events as east/west based using that metric, primarily because three zones are included, the waters off Peru, the waters off the Philippines, and the waters in roughly Nino 3 (middle of the tropical Pacific). Modoki status is calculated as the middle zone - (0.5*East Zone)-(0.5*West Zone). So I think of ENSO events as on an X-Y grid, where strength is X, and orientation is Y. An event like 1997-98 is similar to 2015-16 on the X scale, but the Modoki status of 2015-16 was +0.3, whereas 1997-98 was -0.7 or something. So the events produced very different outcomes. 1997-98 was something (0.9)-(2.8*0.5)-(0.2*0.5), whereas 2015-16 was more like (1.3)-(1.7*0.5)-(0.3*0.5), the 2.8 and the 1.7 are the eastern areas in the calculation. A loose way of doing it might be to see if the east-based number is much more extreme (cold or warm) than the the first number.
  18. 1 point
    Yea we will see not real impressed with the meso models this year overall they have missed alot, but I feel the concern. I think we have a chance at something decent even without a lot of heating to take place. Strong forcing with this should help with the lack of instability with the collocation of the warm front and cold front should make things interesting. Probably more so of a rain and wind threat but of course many do not need that right now. Im thinking we get some nice forcing with the warm front through the afternoon tomorrow to possibly warrant some severe storms and maybe supercells with DP's already established it wont take much heating to get things going. We should start to see some backing of winds aloft as the system gets closer so some cooling will take place helping with lapse rates. The key will be whether or not we can get just some sun for destabilization. This will depend on timing of the warm front and location as we are just north of the warm front/ stalled boundary now and with the system expected to go negative and lift out thats a lot of energy to throw into the area. Im a little worried about nocturnal squall situation setting up for later tomorrow night into wednesday morning this will have to be monitored as time goes on. After this an area of LP tries to develop along the front and the coastal plain may get into some decent rains as it tries to play catch up to the main ULL. Then some beautiful weather before the heat! It looks like we are cycling through some of the same phases of the MJO so I wouldnt be surprised if we get a wash rinse repeat situation starting next week into september. With heat then rain rain rain... although this situation looks to be a little different then before with the ridge position so that should be interesting to see what happens.
  19. 1 point
    I wont complain about an upper 40's night at all, I enjoy the windows open and a few layers of blankets sleeping haha. While i dont wish summer to be over, I just miss air mass changes that we normally see more than we have this summer. This pattern is just silly stagnant, and honestly can't remember the last frontal passage that really meant business and brought truly cooler drier air. While not overly hot this summer humidity has been horrible, along with the heavy short duration precip deluges. Our area got whacked 3 times with 3" + rain events in over an hours time.
  20. 1 point
    The agony of the slow descent into fall. It's such a step down process. Each Canadian front bringing a little more punch than the last. But between you get the warm ups. Then its almost 80 in october and your like wtf? Summer, why won't you just die. 🙄
  21. 1 point
    Yes, I made it from this ESRL site. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ I actually had to make it twice because I forgot to define the range and intervals to keep them consistent in every frame. I set the region to 5°S - 5°N; O°W - 360°W, choose longitude by height, and set the heights to 100mb and 10mb. I thought it was also neat how you can see the pause in the easterlies movement downward from 30mb to 50mb. Like you said, westerlies generally descend quicker, how quick is the question. Agreed on the Niño, WWBs have been modest, and spread out temporally. A basin wide event would be difficult to achieve as things stand. But a more central or "modoki" look is intriguing. Linear inverse model https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/sstlim/for4gl.html Those analogs were to get some conversation going. In truth, having two years in the set is risky business. I plotted 63-64 and 94-95 separately and they had little in common, the extremes of the 63-64 winter ended up dominating that composite.
  22. 1 point
    Cool QBO graphic I assume you made this but where did you happen to find the look for the chart like this I like it! Anyways while WQBo is showing and will descend, tends to be more rapid then EQBo events. I think we have to see how it goes into say end of September early October, for now its a good start of course. My reasoning is we saw a false signal before with the transition of WQBo to EQBO a few years back, still unsure fully why this occurred, but think we may be on the tail end of EQBO event and WQBO taking place for this winter. Which should help keep the Strat PV relatively tame for the beginning portion and maybe try to strengthen it towards the end but who knows the damage might already have been done from the first half of the year. As you state ENSO is kind a of null factor this year while el nino conditions look to strike up the WWB events have been all but gone and stagnation is still happening in the MJO plots with minor events surely not enough to fully push us into weak/moderate status, this could change in a matter of a month too so something to watch. If we do manage I think weak is the name of the game this year. Other than that no real issues with the data presented another thing to note though is when we go through these transitions of QBO I wonder if they throw some wilder patterns in there. We may experience more WAF from the lower strato/tropo action this year allowing sometimes break-ups of the PV from below but a stronger core the further up you go to about 10mb.Im not sure though we have a strong enough weakening of the PV to fully break it this year though just depends on how quickly things change up. This will be interesting to watch of course and will be starting the PV thread probably this week, have to gather all the info from my flash drive and various computers lol.
  23. 1 point
    Time to start kicking around some analogs. I was looking at the QBO. Here's the last 18 months. The easterlies have moved from 30mb down into the 50mb layer, and may well be weakening. Westerlies have appeared above 30mb, and should begin propagating down over the next few weeks and months, so I assumed a westerly QBO for this upcoming winter to create these hypothetical situations. Solar is low. ENSO is a wild card at this time, but I think a Niña is highly unlikely, so I eliminated that as a possibility. I used this criteria to create two scenarios, one with neutral ENSO, one with el Niño. Unfortunately, there are few real good matches, I only identified 2 winters for each case. So, the low solar, west QBO, neutral years I came up with were 1952-53, 1996-97. H5. Looks like +EPO, a weak -PNA, and a fairly strong -NAO that isn't oriented well for an east coast snow lover. This might be a good stormy pattern for the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes however, and a stormy Pacific NW. Precip Temps Low solar, west QBO, El Niño were 1963-64 and 1994-95 and looks as follows. Edit: I should note that 63-64 looked more central, maybe even "modoki", while 94-95 was not quite basin wide, but definitely "broader". H5 I'd call this a weak -NAO, +PNA, and a mostly +EPO. the SE CONUS troffing brings the cold, but also seems to shunt GOMEX moisture from the CONUS , save the SE coast. Precip Temps If I characterized the teleconnections in a way that others object, please speak up, it'll create discussion. 🙂 I considered putting all 4 into a composite, but I thought they might Camden each other out in some ways, plus, laying out two possibilities was more fun I think, gives more to talk about.
  24. 1 point
    Test post. I think someone will get snow this winter, but don't quote me on that. Sun angle still too high right now
  25. 0 points
    You know it's dry when the only reason to mow is to knock down the weeds that apparently don't need rain.
  26. 0 points
    Ugh yeah, it's not really starting to look good for an even average end to August and early September. Should have known we wouldn't be able to go the rest of the year without going above 85 IMBY. The newest GFS is very ugly if you like cooler temperatures for its entire run after Sunday.
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