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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/04/2018 in all areas

  1. 8 points
    Have these handy! Less messy than the cream! ;)
  2. 7 points
    Thank You I truly do appreciate it, even if this doesn't pan out the way we want it to, this is what the forum is all about. I am so happy to see the old crew and some new guys come and make this forum our new home. Not only do we track storms, but we also build relationships here some that have even lasted 10+ years. I remember when I just became a member at accu I was a young and ignorant lad. I jumped into a community in which I had no business being part of. Thanks to @jdrenken slapped some humbleness into me as I grew up and learned from the ignorant things I said. Its kind of weird knowing there's people here who you think about when there is a snowstorm outside, laughing to yourself because you know what they would say at that moment. This place is more than just a forum, this place is like our own virtual home where our virtual brothers and sisters come and talk about things we love to talk about with each other. Also a big thanks to @PlanetMaster to keeping our community alive and well and growing.
  3. 6 points
    12z eps mean and spread hr144(the farthest it’s loaded currently) the bulk of the spread at this hour is generally north/northeast. But it does appear that spread exists to the west and northwest. There is also significant spread downstream as well as over the Hudson where our nothern stream is arriving from. I believe a lot of the current ensemble suites are going to be steered by how their control gets initialized. So take that into consideration going forward, not even the ensembles are free of large swings in depiction one way or the other for about the next 36-48 hours or so. We are currently at a precipice with how and when the nothern stream reacts to our arriving southern stream disturbance, both in regards to early confluence and the later arriving energy parcel.
  4. 6 points
    Lol. Classic Pard. Too good. Page topper boom! What's worse than solstice's hemroids and roid rage? 39 pinned posts at the top of every page.
  5. 6 points
    This seemed necessary given the environment.
  6. 6 points
    "We'll know what happens when it happens"
  7. 5 points
    The least you could do is not copy and paste from another board. lol
  8. 5 points
    This gif, and the fact that the CMC was the northern outlier for Jonas definitely has me on the edge of my seat. *TV announcer voice - "Tune in tomorrow for another episode of As the Models Turn! Can the NAM shed any light on this mystery? Will the GFS finally come to its senses? Will the raving lunatic CMC have the last laugh???" . Even if it doesn't play out as a Northeast bomb this forum is going to be one fun place to be.
  9. 5 points
  10. 5 points
    Local mets still poo-pooing the storm, so that's good. Particularly WTOP which is going with the north vs. south idea from a few days ago. This morning "I'm still tracking a system that looks to impact the east coast sunday into monday, but the good news is it still looks to remain well south of us!" I feel like it's not a N/S cut-off, but more of a coastal cut-off line at the moment? Perhaps they should be hedging their bets a little better after the November mess where it was supposed to rain all day after a few inches pre-dawn then warm up into the 40s lol. Meanwhile it snowed all day then turned into an ice storm that evening. Granted even NWS got that one wrong.
  11. 5 points
  12. 5 points
    The EPO, NAO, PNA and AO all look to be transitioning at this time. The NAO is forecast to be slightly negative at the time (transitioning to postive), the PNA looks to be plunging pretty negative in this time frame while the EPO an AO both look to be transitioning towards positive from a rather weak negative deviation(s). All of this, to me, tells me that this surpression is likely incorrect, especially as the PNA is looking to go significantly negative (-2 to - 3sd). Therefore, I expect this to correct NW over the next several runs.
  13. 5 points
    How the hell do you do that anyway? I have 5 more I want to add, very important
  14. 5 points
  15. 5 points
    Hey guys, first post here. I am a migrant from the accuweather forums. Such good times there, learned a lot. Looking forward to interacting with everyone on this forum. This storm is so typical of the models, coming together in the long range, then losing it as the days draw near. Adds to sleepless nights. Being on Long Island, it's difficult to cash in on a lot of these storms. This is just the prototypical model mayhem in the mid-range. I am very interested in what the 144hr Ukie output is tonight. Over the years I have some bias towards the Euro and Ukmet. A part of me can't stand the GFS hehe. Anyway, happy tracking everyone!
  16. 5 points
    In the wee hours, when the rooster crows, the crew in here is very thin. I awake at 3 a.m. most days, and when important storm on horizon, I start off with a look at the 00z suite. Usually while having first cup of coffee. Hence, I've been told I post when the roosters rise. It's a running "gag" now for a couple years. Mostly it's MJ and me and a few others who make up the Rooster crew. Yes, for snow lovers to be happy, that confluence has to move out quicker or be weaker.
  17. 5 points
    A couple good snowstorms already has everyone ready for more it seems. Were 6 days out. Page topper boom! Did you hear of the Italian chef who died? He pasta-away
  18. 4 points
  19. 4 points
    A broken down old quarterback duel. In bad weather? What could possibly go wrong? NAVGEM makes me hopefull we see a NW trend over the next two model runs, if not in the 18z then in the 0z Wednesday runs. Been saying all along though that it would be tomorrow at the earliest before the models were doing much more than guessing. Thursday will tell the tale now that the timing seems to have slowed to a Sunday/Monday event rather than a Saturday/Sunday. Our resident Virginia members will take what we can get and run with it; or, rather, we'll slip and slide on slippery roads with it, what ever falls. We drive just as badly in the rain as most places do in snow.
  20. 4 points
    Regarding the "who to trust" model debate I will bring my favorite saying... It's all a matter of perception and, who's perception, is all that matters. My ex-wife didn't appreciate me saying that because she knew exactly what I was getting at without saying it. ;)
  21. 4 points
  22. 4 points
  23. 4 points
    If only I could get paid to hang out drinking coffee all day and following WxDisco. I mean, why should I be expected to get any work done once this forum starts buzzing?
  24. 4 points
    Major shift North from the 00Z. Why do I have a feeling In 24-36 hours this forum will be buzzing loudly?
  25. 4 points
    Hey all!! Long time no talk.... just lurking for a couple weeks after I found y’all. A few thoughts. Im in line with UTS on the pesky details to the north being sorted. Seems odd to watch the local weather this morning and see a 10 day with nothing but this potential for any precipitation. Is this cutoff low going to just turn the fire hose off in the northeast? After so many rounds of low pressure, the entire north is going to flip to big highs? Maine Jay mentioned how the Nam has nailed the first 2 extreme northern storms of the season and I for one have witnessed with many of you the song and dance of model mayhem....This one has dragged me back into the long term tracking. I guess it was the deep blues I saw at hour 240 a few days ago. Happy tracking! JJ.Avon Formerly Jon Johnson accuweather
  26. 4 points
    I think this speaks for many here, well said and appreciated.
  27. 4 points
    And folks, make sure there is no one under 18 in the thread for the next 3 hours. Soon it will be time for the FV3 XXX.
  28. 4 points
    So anywhere from North Carolina to Nova Scotia, glad we've cleared things up tonight.
  29. 4 points
  30. 4 points
    No way its like 1 poster and that philosopher guy from Canada in there.
  31. 4 points
    DT is insufferable. Where's NYPANJ weather authority? They'll clear this up. 7 or 8 incorrect snow map updates And we'll be off and running...
  32. 4 points
    Ha ha, just realized that I joined this board back on my birthday from the previous accu forums. It was a gift on my bd discovering the forum had moved to this new website Although a little bit of bitter sweet when I look back and remember I was included as the founding member of that forum back then I love this freaking place or old place or whatever you want to call it!!!!
  33. 3 points
  34. 3 points
  35. 3 points
    From the available CIPS analogs the December 4-5, 2002 storm looks like the best match and here's a great write-up from the South Carolina NWS office detailing that event. The analog suggests a much greater threat of icing than current model solutions suggest so that's something to watch across the southern states. Ironically, today is the storms' 16 year anniversary and I strongly recommend the read: https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2002/4-5Dec_WinterStorm/WinterStorm.pdf Edit: Updated CIPS snow map in the spoiler:
  36. 3 points
    Page topper, boom..... a shoelace walks into a bar and asks for a drink. the bartender turns to him and says sorry we dont serve shoelaces here. the shoelace leaves the bar , ties himself up and goes to get a haircut. The shoelace then returns to the bar and asks for a drink. the bartender asks, "aren't you that shoelace that i told we don't serve here?" To which the shoelace replies, "No, I'm a frayed knot."
  37. 3 points
    I submit that anything posted by snobal should be pinned. Immediately.
  38. 3 points
    The bsr and SOI composite are targeting approximately the 25th for a large trough the frames for the 24-25 are not loaded yet but here is the 23rd 12z also here is the SOI composite posted by @jdrenken valid Dec 23-24th detailed by an abrupt Soi rise on the 28th The future bsr frames will show a transfer off the coast here is the loop of the Christmas signal the wpc overlays should be created soon. Will post.
  39. 3 points
    At least we know its the real Snobal
  40. 3 points
    You are a tad early in posting aren't you? I mean...it's not inside the 5 day wheelhouse yet. ;)
  41. 3 points
  42. 3 points
  43. 3 points
    We should all move to the SE sub forum so we can correctly post and track this event
  44. 3 points
    Uh, I agree. Those should be up there as well. "Riveting posts! A must read!"
  45. 3 points
  46. 3 points
  47. 3 points
    @LUCC since when did you become such a pessimist living in the New Jersey snow capital of SNE?
  48. 3 points
    I just added a good discussion of divergence/convergence and diffluence/confluence here: Feel free to ask for more information there
  49. 3 points
    Please direct general questions to the Weather Q&A forum so it will benefit others in the future and not be buried in this thread, Thanks
  50. 3 points
    Big storms do something. Can't remember what, but they do, almost every time.
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