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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/01/2019 in all areas

  1. 7 points
  2. 7 points
  3. 5 points
    My parents are up at their cottage in northern lower MI & my dad just sent me this photo...9" of fresh powder = perfect snowmobile conditions. I'm jealous!
  4. 5 points
    It's a pretty snow, but slumping and melting immediately. A couple pics for the snow starved. You can get the driveway is already turning to slush.
  5. 5 points
    First time I've seen this, but I usually don't look for these. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 654 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018 Shows up as Avalanche Watch on the map.
  6. 4 points
  7. 3 points
    Woke up to a dusting of snow this morning and by my reaction, you would have thought there was a foot out there!
  8. 3 points
    On a positive note, the extreme long range of the GFS (lol, shaky ground, I know)...Is finally showing signs of a more favorable pattern starting around the week of the 14th...Gonna be a tough couple weeks of waiting though. Hopefully, the last 6 weeks of meteorological winter make up for this rough stretch. For now, we can all dream of landscapes like this...(Northern lower MI this morning)
  9. 3 points
    After all the doom & gloom of the accuweather forum during early JAN, 2015 after a blowtorch DEC...GFS was showing MJO taking off from, ironically phase 5 that it was in at the time. Euro was showing from phase 5 to 6 & then COD. Interesting Here was JD addressing my response to another poster about it: I guess my point is models were mixed. There were many reasons for winter lovers to get upset, despair, gripe & complain. Funny looking back. Not saying anything other than that is so typical.
  10. 3 points
    Man, this thing is pumping moisture. Been raining at a steady rate for a while now. I see a break opening up ahead, though. Winds are gonna pick up behind this system. You know what we need? .
  11. 3 points
    After you posted this I had to check it out via GOES16. WOW!!! that is one incredible feed of moisture(in spoiler.)
  12. 3 points
    One my way to my buddies house 7 miles away. Started with a lt drizzle at 36° and has turned over to lt snow at my house. Currently awaiting the wife picking up snacks food in grocery store half way there and it is 32° and lt snow. KBOX is calling for frozen mix, up to 1.5" of snow and couple hundreds of freezing rain through 1am. Happy New Year and be safe everyone.
  13. 2 points
    Man this one is close. Wouldnt take much for some North and South interaction.
  14. 2 points
    It is fascinating that there is blue (in Colorado) located so close to deep red in Montana and the Dakotas. The Rockies/Plains seem to have drastic differences one or two states away.
  15. 2 points
    For anyone that dares imply that winter is over...they're either ignorant or trying to get under someone's skin. Notice Anthony's last response
  16. 2 points
    Nice day out today! Noticed the grass was greening up. Then noticed it wasn’t grass, but moss taking over the lawn. Apparently I’m living in Ireland now.
  17. 2 points
    Here was the yearly temperature anomaly for the CONUS:
  18. 2 points
    I see a cool down 13-15th. Then a stronger system in SW pumps up ridge from 15-17th, warming up everything ahead of it (maybe severe or heavy rain). Then the cooler air bleeds east with & behind system. Right after could be some type of weak winter system bringing in colder air the 19th. 20th looks cold to me. Word of caution on SW activity meaning warmth further east. In this case yes. The 15th-17th yes. But the best winter storms for my area often come from split flow systems entering SW under a PNA ridge with cold air in place east of Rockies. The reason I mention this...I will not be surprised to see to see a couple of winter storms for OV when PAC gets better. Classic Nino winter storm track. For clarification...nothing like that in the forseen future. Thats just for future reference. Just a caution to look carefully when seeing BSR systems appearing entering SW to see what the flow is further east before concluding warm or cold system.
  19. 2 points
  20. 2 points
    Didn’t think we’d make it to January without some evidence of future cold air from the models. This does indeed remind me of winter 2011-2012, even the early snowfall around these parts.
  21. 2 points
    Temperature had been at 32.2° basically throughout, creating a very wet snow, but at least it's snow. Wrapping up now. 3.5"
  22. 2 points
    What a major SSW looks like Complete Stratospheric zonal wind reversal in addition to the Nino-enhanced STJ In addition, interestingly, there's a Stratospheric zonal wind enhancement in the mid-latitudes. I'd guess this is from the split PV dipping unusually far south, increasing the PGF in the mid-latitudes. I can't imagine any way this would be meaningful for the troposphere.
  23. 2 points
    Lol...after reading page after page on the old accuweather forums right after initial cold JAN 1-4 models were showing warmth & everyone was cancelling winter. Also a weak SSW took place & displaced vortex in Asia & that was supposedly death to winter also. We know how it worked out. Even organic methods correlated very weakly. It was comical reading all the MJO arguments considering they were about the same now. Check put my post from JAN 2 of that month...lol This post cracked me up considering how that JAN & FEB turned out. Usual winter despair....
  24. 2 points
  25. 2 points
    I created this thread 18 hours too early
  26. 2 points
  27. 2 points
  28. 2 points
  29. 2 points
    36° and sleet here. Temp has been slowing rising all day and expected to hit 43 by morning and start falling. Mad River Glen's cam showing moderate snowfall at the base. Happy New Year!! Stay Safe!!!!!
  30. 2 points
    We need the MJO to start cooperating. looping around in sector six and seven is not helpful. None of the tellies are in a good position for cold in the eastern CONUS ATM.
  31. 2 points
    Well we can blame my wonderfull wife of almost 32 years (10 days). She bought me a 5-1 weather station and of course now the rain guage is gettting a big workout.
  32. 2 points
    Yes. You might get spikes in the PNA due to ridging over British Columbia, but the split flow allows Pacific air to cut underneath it... mitigating the cold shots. Another thing...when Alaska is cold for a long period, the CONUS is warm. Same thing applies to Greenland. Keep track of that.
  33. 1 point
    Major winter storm to slam into Newfoundland and stall over it, after steamrolling over Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia will likely experience heavy snow followed by rain, though the snow will be extremely wind-blown. Newfoundland will get a blizzard, but hey, they are used to it, I suppose. Here's the ICON. Look at that monster over Newfoundland. 970s. Crazy wind. Hopefully we get some Atlantic Canada members soon...
  34. 1 point
  35. 1 point
    My season ski pass is still sitting at guest services waiting for me to pick it up, its 5 min from my house yet I don't have the mental energy to pick it up and acknowledge winter.
  36. 1 point
    Hmmm, wonder where we've heard this before?
  37. 1 point
    EUROPEAN MJO coming around a little bit. Word of caution....anyone that has followed MJO has noticed model variability in MJO forecasts. If anyone that loves winter is wondering what you should hope for....you should hope for phases 8,1,2 or COD. Anything other than 3-6 is good. You should abhor 4-6 unless you're our friend in New Mexico. The long time in phase 5 has screwed us for a little bit & in the short to medium range. Again...who knows if we get a strong wave moving through cold phases or we camp out in COD. But in my opinion anything other than the phases we've been in for 3 weeks is good!
  38. 1 point
    Cranky's take on January 3, 2019 and January 5, 2019. Happy New Year Everyone !!!
  39. 1 point
  40. 1 point
    Agreed. That said, I am trying to make the most out of it since it is something completely out of my control. So my take is, at least it isn't 90° heat!
  41. 1 point
    Looks like as the southern feature slows even further, it gives room for the northern stream to dig a bit. This was probably a shortwave that the models used to phase this with the southern stream energy a few days ago.
  42. 1 point
  43. 1 point
    I wonder if there's some disagreement at the NWS regarding tomorrow's wind as this storm's front comes through...
  44. 1 point
    Well maybe it should be. I received a letter from the mortgage company saying our surrounding area has been declared a disaster area by FEMA. Only disaster at our house is the 2018 mud apocalypse. Clearly it's for flooding in surrounding areas but we need to dry out. Urgently. Too much of anything always ends up being a pain. I'd still pick the mud over drought though.
  45. 1 point
    Are we being trolled by the schizophrenic models again or is this finally the one?
  46. 1 point
    I don't know how I've never seen this but here's how ENSO phases impact tornado activity. Some very clear conclusions can be made per this research. Ninos favor highest tornado activity further north, Ninas favor further south. Makes sense because Ninos have a jet stream further north. Ninos favor backloaded tornado seasons, Ninas favor frontloaded. However, Ninas appear to produce stronger/more deadly tornadoes than Ninos no matter the location. This is a moderate Nino, but how it evolves can impact this. For example, if the Nino becomes more east-based or transitions to a Nina from the west, then we may see more Nina-like characteristics. https://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/03/30/how-does-el-nino-la-nina-or-la-nada-impact-the-following-tornado-season/
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