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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook


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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/04/2019 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    I can assure you this. The weather will be terrible on your sons birthday this year. Because it sure seems to be every year for his party. That's how much we know each other in here. I remember the bad weather for LUCC's kids b day party. Orrrrrr maybe I'm a stalker. Or a NJ snow pusher salesmen. Or a therapist on Olyphant, pa I'll see myself out
  2. 5 points
    Off-Topic: I am digging the dancing snowman up in the corner.
  3. 5 points
    I am near Toronto, so I am not that far from Michigan. This means our weather is obviously similar most days. A variety of factors such as SSW timing, MJO, QBO, ENSO, and teleconnections come into play. Therefore, the reason why we get a late winter one year may not always be the same reason as another year. However, when looking at recent years where winter started late (2018-19, 2015-16, 2014-15, 2012-13, 2011-12, 2006-07 etc.) you will notice that almost all of these years were El Nino winters (Except for 2012-13 and 2011-12. Actually, winter didn't really come at all in 2011-12). El Nino is the warming of the Pacific Ocean which typically results in a southern jet and sometimes milder Pacific air spreading from west to east, with stormier conditions often to the south and drier conditions often to the north. With this in mind, in east and central-based El Nino's especially, with a lot of El Nino forcing in place early in the season, this tends to keep serious arctic air generally at bay. However, later in El Nino winters (Particularly weak to moderate ones) when El Nino dies off and heads west, it is easier for us to get arctic air because at that point the El Nino forcing tends to impact Western North America far more (Consider 2014-15 and 2006-07 as standout examples). When SSW's come into play in this setup, this is when the east is an especially easy target for arctic blasts. Last year, on the other hand, with La Nina, we pretty much had the opposite scenario. Winter started extremely cold and snowy, and then mid-January into late February, we generally had it easy. 2015-16 and 1997-98 were very mild El Nino winters, but those years were super in strength and were east-based, making arctic air difficult to set up here due to how big and where the El Nino forcing was taking place. This one is more central-based and weak, meaning an overall balmy winter is unlikely.
  4. 4 points
    Euro mean with ens member l's Pagetopper! Why was the snowman sad? He had a meltdown.
  5. 4 points
    Yep! People in central MO are complaining about it being chilly...umm...did you forget last year we spent 14 straight days below freezing starting on the 26th of December??!!
  6. 4 points
    Lol. 4 more inches yesterday morning. 34.25" now. It hasn't translated into a spectacular snowpack, 6-8" currently, as most fell back in November. I also haven't gone below zero this year, had like 3-4 days in a row of -20° lows last December,I like the cold, but this is better. for me at least.
  7. 4 points
    Me when there is another L in the lakes.
  8. 4 points
    Yes big time. I believe our affliction also called SAD (Snowfall Affection Disorder). @MesoscaleBanding...well put.
  9. 3 points
    To me, this seems like a "ride the coattails" situation. No wave spacing between this one and yet another zippy northern stream shortwave - the trailer gets "pulled" along even more swiftly within the ensuing northwest flow.
  10. 2 points
    Everyone in my area has been complaining about how it just goes directly from summer to winter, and then from winter to summer. It does seem like Fall and Spring are becoming less relevant, but is there proof of this? How do we go about trying to prove this "theory"? I'll start with some basic research - have Octobers been warmer than normal, representing an extension of summer? You can get data from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. I put this in the Long Range thread for starters, but the results for the NE/MA show that yes, Octobers have been warming. 9 of the Octobers since 2003 have been warmer than normal, 2 seasonal and 5 colder. But since 2010, only one was cooler and one seasonal. Here is a gif of the NE Octobers. Complicating things is that the scale changes each year and typically the entire region doesn't have the same result, so I'm just eyeballing it. What about the rest of the CONUS? At least the scale is the same year over year. What about the winter into spring? Let's look at April. In the NE (you can spot your state and count for your own result) , there was a better mix - 8 were higher, 6 colder and 2 seasonal. However, the warm years took place prior to 2012 (except for 2017) and the cooler years took place post 2012. So, the maps kinda sorta, unscientifically validate the feeling that winters and summers are lasting longer, at the expense of spring and fall, at least in the NE. Any thoughts on why? Where to start? ENSO? PDO? QBO? EPO? AO? Sunspots? Or is it just that we are seeing warmer temperatures in general?
  11. 2 points
    comments like that make want to go and put the traction chains on the Kubota
  12. 2 points
    Is the good Dr. actually wondering why the Euro model is different than the CMC? If so, so much for even the shred of "cred" I've been giving his "work". I guess he's saying that, because Euro is not agreeing, that has him pondering - but what an awkward way of saying so.
  13. 2 points
    While this is IMBY, there's definitely been a change in the wind over the past 24 hours on the Euro: Euro Plot for Valparaiso, IN 1/3/19 00z: Euro Plot for Valparaiso, IN 1/4/19 00z: Will this stick, or will we revert to a warmer solution? I'm not a wizard, so I don't know, but even the EPS mean for the same location has dropped quite a bit, in the ballpark of 4-8°F depending on the day. I am cautiously optimistic we are finally beginning to see signs of some change moving forward. Trends, it's all about the trends.
  14. 2 points
    Finally some progress on EPS LR....Not stellar but much better. Have the coolshot JAN 12-13 & system, then a warm up & another cool down with system around 16-18th. Somewhat lines up with BSR signals....on timing that is:
  15. 2 points
    I believe the snow I got yesterday was largely driven by a northern stream disturbance, and it's interacting with an offshore low. I think we actually have seen a few of these systems (why Maine has remained below average through December, temp wise). But, it We've see the models phasing systems in the D5+ range for a while. I think it's just these southern quasi-cutoff lows that lately detach from the midlatitude westerlies, meander through the country, flooding the warmth in, and keeping the northern stream confined to near the US/Canada border. They have rarely phased, and when they have, it isn't favorable for east coast snowstorms.
  16. 2 points
    0z Euro & 12z close to something big. Plenty of time to wait & see what happens. System in SW has a shot also
  17. 2 points
    ESRL is obviously down, but I have a Powerpoint of US temperature anomalies for every winter from 1931-32 on. Looking through my Powerpoint and at temps in Dec and Jan (3/8 of winter is over for DJF), there aren't a whole lot of years that are super warm in the Northern Plains like this year. That's probably a key feature to use in analogs going forward. Bismarck is around +7F winter to date. That won't go away easily. A lot of the SW is now running 1-3F below normal. The SE is well above normal now, with Jacksonville near 80F again recently. Maine is cold, but most of the NE warm. I'd go 1986 (x3), 1943 (x2), 1991 (x2), 2011 (x2), 1997, 1957 as a blend? That gets you low solar (1986, 1943), +SOI (2011), similar MJO (1997), similar Nov-Dec weather (1957, 1987), similar subsurface (1986, 1991, 1997). Some kind of blend of these years is fairly likely given what has happened so far. With the +SOI cooling off the NW recently, I do think its pretty likely the core of the warmth stays in the Northern Plains.
  18. 2 points
    So, I'm surprised no one has posted the latest run of the Euro... While I realize this will change, it's the most promising change we've seen as of lately. Will be interesting to see if it holds going forward.
  19. 2 points
    Some "wiggle-matching" with Enso 3.4 data, for what it's worth. To generate the graph below, I downloaded textfile data from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for and plotted the 4-week running mean of the Enso 3.4 anomaly column data. The value hit a sharp peak right at the beginning of 1992, and then fell The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 1995, and then fell The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 1998, and then fell The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 2003, and then fell The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 2007, and then fell The value hit a sharp peak right at the beginning of 2010, and then fell The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 2014, and then fell (slightly) The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 2015, and then fell (slightly) The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 2016, and then fell The value hit a sharp peak just before the beginning of 2019, and then... ??? It looks like Enso 3.4 anomaly has peaked just before the beginning of 2019. The peaks at the beginning of 2014 and 2015 were followed by small falls, and larger rises. But all other year-end peaks were followed by significant drops in Enso 3.4. What will the current drop-off bring?
  20. 2 points
    This is more about Ultima Thule, which I looked into because I was curious about its shape. They been stuck together for quite a long time, to say the least. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-horizons-ultima-thule-images-sharper-focus-revealing-snowman-like-structure/
  21. 2 points
    I see some changes down the pipeline. Yes, that is a vague statement, but I do see changes. ECMWF 500mb geopotential heights. On the first map I can almost draw a line in a constant change of angle across half the hemisphere on the green heights. Second map? Not so much. Some more ECMWF. Yes, southeast Asian modeling is very volatile. But isn't that little bugger interesting? Looking at the hemisphere view, it appears that "little bugger" creates some amplitude along the Pacific. Even if it isn't impressive, it's something. And EAR? Places it around mid-January. . FV3-GFS 2m temperatures. Look at the cold strengthening over Russia. Not sure how this will impact anything, but it's a change. And a change usually causes more changes. So I figured to include it. Yes, a crappy write-up, but in my defense I can't go further without exceeding my capabilities... .
  22. 2 points
    It's just tough to be patient. If we could see into the future & know with certainty a snowy late Jan/Feb. of epic proportions awaits, we could probably enjoy a mediocre (or worse) January. Still a lot of time left, but the window of opportunity shrinks by the day for sure - no denying that.
  23. 2 points
    I used to truly be more upset when I was younger. It can still be ballz to me, just not to the same degree (no pun intended..Or maybe it was). Now, I tend to roll with the punches more and hope for a nice surprising change for the better!
  24. 2 points
    Seems like that's the direction a lot of people on Twitter are going. It's a shame because great minds are being wasted on pettiness and politics (two words that are basically synonyms now)
  25. 2 points
    According to CMIP, a rainfall over 0.9" is considered "Very Heavy" here in EPA. We typically see nine storms that cross this 95% threshold, per year. Per Mt. Holly, tomorrow's event should yield between 0.5 and 1.0" of rain. What you show above comes to over 0.35" and that's before the real fun begins. It's nice to start the year by getting one of these nine out of the way. The last "Very Heavy" rain we had, I believe, was way back in December. We got over 1.1" on 12/21. Wait... waaaiiiittt... I see 1.67 back on December 28. So, if we get the high end of our prediction, and get over 0.9" of rain this weekend, that will make three "Very Heavy" events in fourteen days. At this point nobody is even paying attention. My town just moves the orange cones and emergency signs leaning by the side of the road, knowing that they will just move them from the curb out into the street to redirect traffic around the insta-ponds that used to be our roads. The Delaware River, at this point, is likely navigable up to Montreal, or thereabouts...