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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/17/2019 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    On a serious note, and I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1.5" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready. To do so I suggest Fill up you gas tanks. Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze. If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze) If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills). Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days. Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication. Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone. Have warm clothes handy. This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety. Page topper. No joke. Read above and take note for your safety
  2. 11 points
  3. 10 points
    Please for the sake of this new amazing forum do not bully and look for a fight. Let's all get along and respect each other. We all have made mistakes. we can all grow together from our past mistakes and make this a better place.
  4. 7 points
    Mulletman's shower thought of the day I always wondered if maybe when the settlers were coming west it was during the winter and they just kept traveling to where the snow stopped. This path then became I-70 and that is why it is always the battleground for snow/rain.
  5. 6 points
    I think NYC will see 8 to 12 inches of snow , turning to freezing rain. I don't see temps going above 30.
  6. 5 points
  7. 4 points
    Dear NAM, Make everyone in this forum happy. Thanks, BuckeyeGal
  8. 4 points
  9. 4 points
    Dude Snobal's been around longer than Kocin. Come on!
  10. 3 points
    4/10ths of an inch of ice in my area would be horrendous, I really hope that doesn't pan out. I guess people should start prepping for days of power loss with temperatures near or below zero! Page topper BOOM!!!! Where did the meteorologist stop for a drink on the way home from a long day in the studio? The nearest ISOBAR!! Earned it!
  11. 3 points
    I’m sure Snobal be looking at that towel on the floor scratching his head contemplating picking it back up after the 12z icon 😂
  12. 3 points
    One thing I hate is cold rain!!!!!!!!!!
  13. 3 points
    Soon we will be able to look at the 3KM NAM, and keep dissecting the column layers for confirmation or not of this ice threat that lingers overhead.
  14. 3 points
    Or DNA PAGE TOPPER BOOM Grandma's been staring through the window ever since it started to snow. If it gets any worse I'll have to let her in.
  15. 3 points
    I was pretty active on accu forums 4ish years ago. I used to pop in for visits, and was stunned when the forum shut down. Found the replacement site just 3 days ago. Glad to be back. Just in time for another good winter storm.
  16. 2 points
    Lots o bickering, we can't control this shit
  17. 2 points
    I like it much more when you are in here Bill. Lot of good thoughts, points, and less insanity. I actually am deliberately avoiding the thread during the day with all the model hugging chaos. Any chance of you quitting your day job and doing this during the day? I possibly may be taking that leap soon so you would have some company to fill up the days
  18. 2 points
    No RAOB's launched on the west coast. Maybe 0Z has mostly to full sampling. Enough to warrant it sampled anyway
  19. 2 points
    Here is the 24-hour snow total at 10:1 from the 18z NAM. Let's hope the 00z suite trends this way in other models. Great run for most of our area. For comparison, here is the snowfall at the same time period from today's 12z run And here is the 18z with ratios that runs paints a solid 15-20cm for the GTA. 30cm for Hamilton-Niagara Falls. 35cm towards Ft Erie. That of course is assuming ratios are accurate. And it'll be close due to the bitter cold.
  20. 2 points
    Here is the first call map from Millersville meteorologist Eric Horst. Usually very accurate.
  21. 2 points
    More Team Sussex County checking in. Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.
  22. 2 points
    Wouldn't put much stock in that. It's a broad area of LP and the models will place it where they think is best. Kinda like throwing darts.
  23. 2 points
    The o ly 18Z launch showing up thus far
  24. 2 points
    Wow, I just tried to do a map in Paint and really can't do it. Terrible. Need better skills. Then again, you've seen my drawings
  25. 2 points
  26. 2 points
    Snowing nicely in Morgantown right now. The old snow cover is starting to look freshened up, but I'm skeptical of anything more than ~1" of snow by tomorrow morning.
  27. 2 points
    It’s better then an ice storm. I don’t feel like us losing power and having single digit temps to follow would be good for anyone.
  28. 2 points
    WSWatch extended to include Chicago...slowly moving east with the watches
  29. 2 points
    If only we all lived in snow paradise in IPT
  30. 2 points
    Looks like a stretched messy center of influence Northern stream pounds it down. slower storm, more NW influence youre..the..the...a lower resolution model got that? shut up Richard. ill see myself out
  31. 2 points
    The way I (foggily) remember it - Nwsscott mysteriously appeared in the Accu forums a couple years back, and claimed a storm was going to do something that practically no models agreed with. I forget the details. But there were a lot of people thought he was wacky, and that his screenname was a ruse. His communication didn't give any clues, and there were tiffs, feathers ruffled - including with some of the posters here I admire greatly and follow closely. His communication didn't really shed much light, so there was always skepticism. Anyway - he was right about that storm. Not so much others. Some say it was luck. But he just confessed to being a retired NWS person (not sure what position thought). I'll always take his obs into consideration. Sorry- OT. How's about please no ice??
  32. 2 points
    Of course he is. Local mets always hug the GFS, and he HATES snow. So he will go with the model that suits him. EDIT: I just read his write up pn their website. Unless I am waaay off base here, I think his forecast borders on irresponsible. He says that "areas further south" go to all rain after midnight. Is that a possibility? Sure. Are there other options on the table, absolutely. And he makes no mention of them. What does he consider further south? NWS has most of NEPA 8-12", yet he is saying 2-5 in the southern areas. I am not saying the GFS is totally worng, but he is clearly downplaying here.
  33. 2 points
    Many pages ago my idea of this forecast was to see the low punch through the Cumberland gap, migrate east, northeast and pop off the VA / Delaware coast, I am not sold on really anything else migrating south, a full fledged miller b type of storm, of an extreme warm nose event from southern Jersey north.
  34. 2 points
  35. 2 points
    Man this is the New World. Clapper is the bullseye almost every model.
  36. 2 points
    If you want this to trend to a mid atlantic snow storm you need the southern stream energy to trend to a bigger closed 500 mb contour , this will slow it down just a tad to where it will be squashed by the northern stream.
  37. 1 point
    Wow! Give me some of that you´ve got there man!
  38. 1 point
    Yeah - TBH I've been quite harsh on it. I'm still not buying, but the others have not exactly been (like me - LOL) rock steady. I was thinking that already yesterday. LOL As do I. The "c" word applies at all times (conviction for those wondering). I'd rather be wrong than flip and flop/waffle with each model run. Keeps me sane (sanish?)
  39. 1 point
    That and using Windows 95 for model run analysis.
  40. 1 point
  41. 1 point
    Oh you can't go wrong with the Jack 😂😂😂
  42. 1 point
    Thanks, Ryan. That's more than enough reason to keep the towel in hand. That would however make all of the local mets look bad. Real bad by about double their forecast.
  43. 1 point
  44. 1 point
  45. 1 point
    @njwx7 is it me or does it look like it wants to go right keeping the bulk of the warm air on the coast? Remember its a zonal pattern, at best neutral trough (no negative) . Ok I watched it a few times, not exactly what I think I was seeing.. but in lime with @UTSwiinii ukie post
  46. 1 point
    Yeah you can really see the winds pumping from the south/ south east just onshore. I wish there was a way to post the image as we used to be able to do on Accuforums I've tried if anyone knows a way. This live feature from the link is cool to follow during storms. You can see the storm from this past weekend is out deep into the Atlantic.
  47. 1 point
    European History Physics Multivariable Calc. US Government In case you don't know, still in high school.
  48. 1 point
    More wound up nor Easter events. This is strictly overrunning. Proximity to the perturbation will dictate if upper levels remain cold enough Low levels will be cold regardless. The problem is h7/85. In overrunning, warm air overrides cold air. Therefore evap cooling is not available.
  49. 1 point
  50. 1 point
    Have to admit the site is really taking off rapidly and has been extremely active which has exposed some simple but detrimental issues that are unique to this sites function. So yes its a learning curve for me in some aspects. This mornings outage was due to the root partition being full because of a bloated mysql slow query log. Simple issue a damn log file and easily avoided if I had been more attentive to our huge spikes in activity especially in stormy patterns. Silly oversight on my part. I use the log to debug slow queries on the site in order to possibly improve the individual query statements and in turn improve performance but most times it is what it is. So the sudden spike in traffic amplified those queries entries by 100 fold at least making for a tremendous file. So the spike in activity, while great for the site, has consequences on the back end which I failed to notice.The site can handle any traffic as I am not worried about the activity but its effects on the server such as the aforementioned logs growing abnormally fast. So I am doing a full system review today will be making sure "simple and avoidable" issues are all taken care of. In these situations the server is 100% fine and working but a full partition due to a huge log will effect services such as MySQL in this case and this shouldn't happen ever. Tine to fine tune this bitch and no more outages...
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