Yes absolutely right I couldn't agree more, should have para phrased with more of the long term forecasting outlook and by that I mean anything 7 days or longer. Warning systems, severe weather prediction as well as tropical system tracking has greatly improved and rightly so with the advances in technology and scientific knowledge of the atmosphere. And still that knowledge is only the tip of the meteorological iceberg as safety and lives are always at stake everyday in the world due to severe weather. So definitely have made great strides and have saved many lives but a long way to go in near term forecasting. So when near term is that difficult, long term becomes basically impossible Most advances in the science are mainly because we have better view of the globe, we can see everything up close and in high definition but even with good old satellites, which have been used since 1960 in weather, the forecasting abilities to view systems from space got started so its not new but more advanced of course. As for predicting severe weather the science is solid as it is on a tiny scale compared to a global massive system that is forever, second to second in flux. A ripple on this side of the Earth sends waves throughout, some noticeable, some not, but all effecting the overall atmospheric configuration and hence the climate. Solar winds push long waves along, the Earths magnetic fields guide jet streams around the poles, the rotation of the Earth determines a systems track, and all things we still haven't discovered that add momentum or change to our atmosphere. It is as complex a system as one can think of and it cannot be deciphered to the point of prediction on any scale. Guess what I am saying is what I always say is Its impossible to predict the weather in anything other the than the near future which has its own challenges but applaud those who try. Long term forecasts are kind of laughable to me, though knowing the magnitude of the attempt, and if by some miracle/chance it hits a certain day or week or month to me its luck and not science. You cant be incorrect 90% of the time and say you got this and no one can be blamed Mother Nature will not be contained or duplicated. I respect the men and women that earn their degrees everyday furthering the science but the computer simulations (models) will never be reliable, they cannot be programmed to understand the atmosphere and its dynamics, raw data is only a microscopic part of the answer. The unpredictability is part of the appeal to me as well, I try and fail about 90% of the time so I am average/terrible in my predictions too.