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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

90sBlizzards

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90sBlizzards last won the day on October 29

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    Northern Orange County, NY

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    A HECS

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  1. Looking/reading past 10 days: It gets colder. The NAO blocking is still in place and the High pressure is centered over Eastern US where you would expect to see it during a Jan/Feb arctic outbreak. Dec 7-20th could feature days that it never gets out of the 20's in the NYC area. Considering 6.5" of snow while @ 27 degrees was seen on Nov 15th in Manhattan, who knows how low it really goes. You're looking at sub zero wind chills for tons of people.
  2. Over the next 10 days I have snow in the forecast for 5 days. There's a good 3-4 day stretch I don't get above 36 and the trend is for those to drop. Wind chills near zero will be seen in the Northeast major metros more than one night in the next 10 days. If someone can post data showing more persistent cold in November, I'd love to see it. You're definitely not there in '93-'94, '95-'96, or '02-'03 and those are extreme outlier winters.
  3. 90sBlizzards

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Good post. I can't argue with it but I can say that someone (as I pointed out in this last storm) actually has to issue a forecast. A mid range forecast for December needs to come now - Not on December 22nd after 3 storms do or don't hit. Just like this last system: You can't wait until it's underway to tell people what's occurring out their window and call that a forecast. Someone actually has to go out on a limb. The fact is that no outlets haven't committed to a possible record winter on deck (and now in progress). You're basically saying that because we're not 100% sure of it we shouldn't call for it and the reality is that because we're 80% sure of it is precisely the reason to call for it. Calling it out when we're 80" deep in February with no end in sight isn't "forecasting". Forecasting isn't 100%. That's what makes it forecasting. Record winter incoming to many folks. And no: A 15-36" snowstorm after Dec 1 wouldn't even break records, let alone be a BECS. Not even close. After Dec 1? Depending upon how long it takes to accumulate, it's not even a HECS. I don't understand why some of you think the date matters at this point. It doesn't. It amazes me that you saw 3+ft in New England on Halloween just a handful of years ago and yet botched this past storm due to date, and still don't think a 2-3'ft storm is possible prior to Christmas. You need to do your homework as it's happened more than once before and not even during prime winters. It doesn't take much in the Northeast during this kind of pattern. The fact still is what I said: If even one of these hits in the next 4-6 weeks, you're already over seasonal averages in a huge swath of locations. If you really think we're going the next 6 weeks without a monster Nor'easter - We shall see but I think you're wrong. I really didn't understand the confusion during the last storm. I saw mets on live TV (NYC mets. Make $300,000+ a year) literally scratching their heads saying "I don't understand these totals north and west". That we're entering an amazing winter is as obvious to me as a huge hit this last storm was. I legitimately don't understand how anyone could be less than convinced or confused lol.
  4. 90sBlizzards

    November 19-22, 2018 | Turkey Day

    This event around Thanksgiving looks like the last radar posted: Cold/blustery day with snow squalls zipping across for a few hours. There's no storm here. These signals, and the ones surrounding ~Dec 3'rd, should turn all eyes to Nov 25th to Dec 5th. Possible Nor'easter and then almost guaranteed arctic blast with classic NAO blocking in place. A progressive flow tries to develop but really, really struggles with these high pressures in the East. Even if one does develop, it's either a reload or actually conducive to a storm in itself. We're in, and entering, the best fall pattern anyone could ask for. Over the next 7-10 days? I don't get above 36 for the last 4 and the lows are 10-15. I don't remember December starting out this cold since '04 and '05.
  5. 90sBlizzards

    December 2-4, 2018 | Winter Storm Potential

    Independent from what happens in this storm, a real blast of cold air looks likely from Dec 3 on. Still to remind folks: Nobody ever debated Jan-Apr of this year. Every source predicts record low temps and snowfall. Everything we're getting in what was universally forecast to be above average and snowless, is a huge bonus.
  6. 90sBlizzards

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I can't predict the future and I'm just an amateur. I'm 1/1 this season though and I'm more confident of huge seasonal totals than I ever was of the 12-18" that hit the Hudson Valley in this last one. What's too bold about what I'm saying? Quite a bit of it is just regurgitation from doctors of meteorology and statistical fact. They haven't seen this setup before, either. You never sit on this date with 12"+ on the ground in so many nationwide locations, with these widespread departures from average, with so many opportunities lined up one after another. Not in mid November. Temps do warm considerably nationwide approaching T-Gives but not in the GL, Northeast, and Mid Atl. Avg in the GL and Atl, with well below average (well) into the Northeast. This only makes the Northeast more likely to experience a big hit when NAO blocking is in place. After the Dec 3 period, another shot of arctic air comes in. Another huge storm coming up the coast is going to try to bully cold air and get schooled. Not this year.
  7. 90sBlizzards

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Again - so many strong signals, one right after the other. In my experience: How many of these can pan out in a 3 week period? 3? 4? Probably not. The point is that with such strong signals, for so long, after basically a November 15th HECS - Something is on it's way around the end of the month/beginning of December and it may be a big one. Just like I felt silly estimating 15-20" totals from this last storm, I feel silly talking about a blizzard by Dec 3rd but it is absolutely something all weather eyes should be on. We're in near record cold, with true NAO blocking in place for this period, and the 2nd arctic push of cold air coming in around this time. Could be very, very wintry by the first week of December in the NE while places just a few hundred miles south of us are well in the 60's/70's. The rest of this month will more closely resemble March and April, than November. Arctic, cold air just trapped in the Northeast with 80%+ of the rest of the country above average. Never seen this pattern in November/December before. Dec 3/4th of 2004, I saw a good 24-30" with monster drifts. That pattern, and the kind of Miller A's it could produce, were weaksauce compared to this one. As said, be careful what you wish for. Not even the pattern before December 2011's post Christmas blizzard was as ripe as this one we're entering and that was a long time ago. A blizz with widespread 15-36"+ totals up the East Coast, with extreme winds, is quite possible in the current realm. Dec 1+ period opens the door to any magnitude of storm. You can see a Jan 6-8 of '96 in the Northeast on Dec 1. Just like this last storm - the date's irrelevant in this kind of pattern. Someone (I'll look back) mentioned being in a progressive pattern also being conducive to big east coast storms, depending upon other factors. This intrigued me and I'm going to research it as I'm completely ignorant to such a setup. What I *do* know about quite well is NAO blocking setups during the onset of an early winter. As said: I have never seen a setup more conducive to an East Coast monster this early before. Not even close. TWC did a piece on how (and to what depth) early snow coverage in the East correlates to record winters. 12 out of 13 (going back to 1883) of the biggest winters started out with this kind of continental snow coverage by this date and all 12 of them were behind this one. Far behind. Almost every season featuring a top 10 blizzard had widespread heavy snows before T-Gives. November heavy snows in the NYC area (6"+) were only seen once going back to the mid 1960's and in the winters they were seen in the 60's and prior - seasonal averages were shattered. Folks need to again, be careful what they wish for. '93-'94 and '95-'96 both show seasonal totals of just under 100" in Albany, New York. '02-'03 was over 105" and the largest on record. By far. There were locations just north of NYC that hit 150"+ in '02-'03 and 200"+ in 93'-'94, with possibly the most snowfall in locales coming in '95-'96. Think about that - 200"+ of snowfall 50-70 miles north of NYC. As said, the winters that produced those number are so far behind this one in temps, snowfall, coverage, and the long range forecast that people who love winter should be excited, yes. But they should also be careful. These are huge totals that may pile up over the course of months and we haven't seen a winter like this in 15+ years. Perhaps 50+ years. Time will tell.
  8. 90sBlizzards

    December 2-4, 2018 | Winter Storm Potential

    Long way away but there have been strong signals at a huge east coast storm around the Nov 28 - Dec 3 period for a long time now. I don't think I've ever seen such strong signals, so consistent, beginning so far out. If this thing wrapped up the way a few of these runs are showing, there would be a ton of places surpassing their SEASONAL averages by Dec 3/4th. Unprecedented. Be careful what we wish for. I really did stress the bite to that last storm and there's just a ton of things lining up for a huge HECS going into end of this fall. Even if this misses, we're still almost 3 weeks away from calendar winter when it "misses". By Christmas, at least one of these will hit.
  9. 90sBlizzards

    November 19-22, 2018 | Turkey Day

    LOL: He's a good egg and just clearly wants monster hit after monster hit. Can you blame him? Still - Incoming historic winter @brodoser1. Relax - You'll see your monster blizzard (or two) before this winter is over. I'm almost 100% convinced we will all remember this winter. White Thanksgiving on it's way to like 1/3 of the country. That's amazing. It's possible that the % of the country seeing a white t-gives will exceed that which normally sees a white christmas. That's never happened before as far as I know and that's going back to WW1 in data I can find. '93-'94, and '95-'96 are true historic, outlier winters. 02'-'03 is definitely behind them but also definitely third in modern times. This fall is so far ahead of all three in both temps and snowfall totals/coverage that it's incredible.
  10. Absolutely gorgeous photo. Thanks.
  11. :-) Thanks, man. As I've made pretty clear here: I'm just an amateur. There are so many synoptic details that many of you know as to which I am completely ignorant to. As said, I do know a little though and I've been in this area for every winter of my life. With temps that cold ahead of the storm, and basically a true arctic airmass centered over New England/Eastern Canada, I had seen this setup numerous times. Warm air aloft is said to cause mixing issues and it never does. As many have pointed out on TWC, being even slightly off with precip type and duration is going to lead to huge errors when dealing with 1-2"/hr+ snowfall rates. As seen in NYC - It doesn't take very long with that kind of snow sticking to make the roads impassable when it's in the 20's. If you recall, I made a post when the snow started saying that my temps dropped 3 degrees almost immediately. At the same time, temps dropped 2-4 degrees in the NYC area. Right there, I said "this is a crush job" and the NWS realized it, too but it was too late. The warnings were issued as people were just starting to leave work and the storm reached it's height there during the peak of rush hour. Don't be surprised to see several rush hours like this in '18-'19. All of that said - this was an outlier event. Still, some pro mets are stating that absolutely no models showed this and that's simply not true. Every model showed something similar to this but the GFS and the pros just choose to throw them out because "It's only November". Hopefully, some of them have learned that once you get into October in the Northeast, this is possible. If it's 25 degrees, dry air in place, and a storm is coming with that much precip, riding climatology and seasonal trends, while ignoring the obvious, is a recipe for disaster. Amateurs like me forecast the storm better than them because the same factors that complicated them into making the wrong call, are factors I'm oblivious to. Sometimes, just keeping it simple and focusing on model trends is enough.
  12. As unfortunate as the loss of life from this storm was (and the absolute chaos in and around NYC), it will probably serve to save lives in the future. This was so large scale that it definitely pulled in more attention than ever to what I was complaining about the day before the storm. I've been reading some reports and listening to some things on tv and some of the most experience meteorologists who write up long ranges for the NWS and other agencies are predicted this to just not end. Especially in the Northeast. Since we could be looking at numerous events of this scale and larger, perhaps starting off with a lesson learned wasn't the worst thing. 8-10+ deaths definitely was avoidable, however and the only thing to make it so they weren't lost in complete vein is to make sure that improvements and learning come from this experience.
  13. Jackpotted, basically. Mount Hope, over to Montgomery across 211, and then up through Bloomingburgh into lower Sullivan Cty = Jackpot. The 18" total reported from Mt Hope came in at 10:45 last night.
  14. They may have condensed some of my overnight posts about conditions/totals lol. /shrug.
  15. I finally managed to crash in bed at around 3:30am - 4am. By the time I woke up around noon, this was long over with lol. Roads 100% clear, tons of melting/settling already, and everything basically back to normal. Which is great. These events are wonderful but being trapped in the house afterwards isn't. Glad we're only in November. I don't think we'll ever actually get official, accurate totals from some locales with this one. The amount of settling and melting that had occurred by the time anyone would be back out there measuring it again was several inches below where it was overnight. I can't sit on here all day again like that today or I'm going to turn into a total forum degenerate but I do know that places reporting 13-18" as of 11pm last night were reporting less totals by 11am today. As said early this AM: Great storm, great forum, great people. I'll definitely be sticking around through the winter and making a donation. That was a great early season surprise. I really am beyond impressed with the overperformance of cold air and how relentless the precip was for so long. I certainly won't say more about the NWS or a botched forecast because I said more than enough (more than enough) about it yesterday and I see that it's been the talk of the town in many cities/burbs all day. Hopefully they learn from this and keep the public safer and better informed moving forward this season.
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