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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

StL WeatherJunkie

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StL WeatherJunkie last won the day on March 28

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  • Locale
    Morgantown, WV


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    Things and stuff
  • Perfect Day
    Downhill skiing with more than 1 foot of fresh powder

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  1. StL WeatherJunkie

    March 21-23, 2019 | Strong Spring Nor´easter

    I just dropped by to post this same thing, but I'm glad to see it's already here :) Their write up is focused on being able to identify ingredients needed for mesoscale snow bands, because this event way over-performed in the northeast kingdom where snowfall rates between 1" and 3" per hour persisted for several hours.
  2. Pecos Hank has been chasing for years and usually captures good footage. I really like his end of the season summaries and I definitely recommend going through them when you have a chance.
  3. StL WeatherJunkie

    Annual snowfall amounts

    Gotcha, sounds like his code glitched. Troubleshooting something like this can be really frustrating
  4. StL WeatherJunkie

    Annual snowfall amounts

    This is an amazing resource, but only if you live in a state Jared decided to include. Unfortunately, none of the three states I'm most interested are included
  5. StL WeatherJunkie

    April 15-16, 2019 | Late Season Shenanigans

    Even though this is a laughable solution, it's putting the hypothetical rain/snow line in the right spot. The gradient across my county goes from 6" in the southeast corner to ~20" in the northwest corner
  6. I guess you're only remembering gust fronts that push ahead of thunderstorms developing along cold fronts. If an outflow is bisecting the warm sector (as was the case on Saturday) then development on the cool side of outflow boundaries is fairly common due to warm air advection aloft. Often elevated development is well west of the thunderstorm that produced the outflow boundary, primarily because surface convergence is weaker.
  7. I'm sure you've seen an elevated supercell before. They can be prolific hail producers, but rarely produce tornadoes. Warm air advection of a sultry air mass ahead of the upper level shortwave is converging with the outflow boundary. Outflow boundaries are sloped just like cold front, but they tend to be shallower. Thus, it's not a surface-based supercell, but mixed layer is a reasonable assumption. There's 3000-3500+ J/kg ML CAPE southwest of this storm cluster so there's plenty of energy for the storms.
  8. Very impressive supercells again today with 0-1 km EHI locally exceeding 5, another bad sign for what looks to be an active tornado season.
  9. I'm going to come back and watch this video in August to make sure I remember what snow looks like.
  10. StL WeatherJunkie

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Last night's 00z Euro has all the hallmarks of a major multi-day outbreak on the southern plains.
  11. StL WeatherJunkie

    April 5-6, 2019 | Front-End Slopfest

    It's been 49ºF or warmer for the past 25 hours with plenty more warmth on the way. Very enjoyable weather for being outside! No measurable precipitation yet and this system looks pretty much over on radar. Since the end of February it's become increasingly dry here with just 2.02" observed during March and early April resulting in a 2.15" precipitation deficit. If this persists through April, I might need to mention the 'drought' word.
  12. StL WeatherJunkie

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    10-day total QPF from today's 12z GEFS. Not enough to eliminate the precipitation deficit IMBY.
  13. StL WeatherJunkie

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    The rain has eased up for about the past month. In Morgantown precipitation was 1.63" below normal during March and already 0.36" below normal for April. It's currently pretty dry out there, but I can tell April showers aren't far away.
  14. StL WeatherJunkie

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Thanks for investing the time into this awesome post! The final map is particularly awesome as I think it shows spatial variations in CAPE/shear balance needed to sustain tornadoes. In general CAPE increased and shear decreased from northwest to southeast. In IL most tornado tracks had an anticyclonic curvature (bent right), probably because of strong winds aloft near the cyclone's center. Many of the twisters in MI, IN, OH, and KY had a cyclonic curvature (bent left), probably because of a relatively stronger low level jet in proportion to upper level winds. At the intersection of these distinct regimes twister #13 found the speed and directional shear 'bulls-eye'. A secondary sweet spot is found in the deep south where CAPE was maximized (probably CIN too) in the presence of what was likely a weaker, but more vertically balanced shear profile. The tornadoes in WV are somewhat surprising too, because that's a mountainous part of the state. Anyways, I think it's a shame that ~45 years after Fujita the best evidence we have of tornado strength still relies on the destruction a tornado leaves behind.
  15. StL WeatherJunkie

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Quite consistent thus far. Perhaps coming in a bit slower, but given the time of year this is not good news.