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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

StL WeatherJunkie

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StL WeatherJunkie last won the day on November 13

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    Morgantown, WV

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    Downhill skiing with more than 1 foot of fresh powder

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  1. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    This is much different than the 12z NAM due to much more rapid phasing. This is definitely worth monitoring, but probably just an 18z fluke IMHO.
  2. StL WeatherJunkie

    Stratospheric Discussion 2018/19

    Dr. Cohen is favoring a PV displacement to end the year instead of a PV split: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ The Euro suggests a SSW from the top to bottom. I'm not knowledgeable enough of the topic to comment any further, but I have gut feeling that some sort of SSW event will occur over the next month or so. No matter what happens with the stratosphere, a continuation of a snowy North American winter seems more likely than not.
  3. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 22-25, 2018 | Christmas Potential

    Run-to-run variance and model-to-model differences are . I think the only thing that can be said with much confidence is a storm forming near the southern plains will track northeast. Details like how far south the storm forms and much of the storms' movement will be northerly versus easterly are simply unknown. With that said, my bold and unjustified forecast for this time frame is for two snowfall axes: the first from Dallas, TX to Detroit, MI and then a coastal transfer benefiting Albany, NY to Bangor, ME. Hopefully I'm wrong.
  4. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    It's currently mostly cloudy and 51F here in Morgantown. The warmth is a nice change of pace, but I don't want the rain that's coming with it. Edit: Also worth noting that the northern stream energy doesn't come ashore until Friday night so there are ~3 more model runs where some waffling should be expected.
  5. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Doesn't look too bad up your way. As you've said before, the storm hinges on when phasing occurs.
  6. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 23rd-26th Storm

    In the spirit of making bold xmas forecasts, I'd like to continue the discussion by stating I think this will be a GLC with coastal transfer. I agree the mid Atlantic will be too warm.
  7. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Missed it by that much on the 12z Euro. A quicker phase could benefit portions of the northeast, but I'm willing to bet the greatest impacts will be in Newfoundland/New Brunswick Hour 120: Hour 144: Page topper: When does it rain money? When there's change in the weather!
  8. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Normally, low tracks like the EPS and GEFS are advertising would be exciting, but just about everything else about this time period reeks of rain GEFS MSLP: EPS MSLP: For example, GEFS 500 mb height tendency indicates lowering heights everywhere except for northerly flow on the back side of the trough where extra cold air would really help this storm out in terms of wintry potential. As a result, marginal temperatures will be a big problem for what appears to be an otherwise decent storm
  9. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    The iceberg being created down south today should prevent this storm from tracking too far north, but the lack of cold air strongly suggests a predominantly liquid event. Personally, I don't think there's anything better than cold rain ... NOT!!!
  10. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Models have been pretty locked in for a couple days, but it's very difficult to help you out without knowing where "here" is. With that said, cold air damming is a year round phenomena dependent on cyclonic wind flow over and around the Appalachians (among other mountain ranges). Thus, cold air damming will occur irrespective of whether or not it's cold enough for snow.
  11. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    It's still a good analog, but the impacts need to be shifted south a couple hundred miles.
  12. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 5, 2018 | Light Snow Disturbance

    I had ~4 separate snow showers that resulted in a quick dusting of snow Wednesday, but it mostly melted between showers so total accumulation was just a dusting.
  13. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I had to dig deep to find anything worth posting about, but with the sref mentions floating about I was able to find something. Lots of ensemble spread exists across the Northeast and the ensemble mean suggests better phasing across the south. Probably not enough to change much, just something to monitor 
  14. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Seems to be worth noting that most storms last year phased with good result for many coastal locations. So far, this year appears to be the year of shoddy phasing resulting in messy double barrel lows that favor the lakes and the northeastern interior. My early guess for this time frame, based on recent storms, is a GLC into a coastal transfer that only benefits portions of NY, VT, NH, and ME. #pessimism
  15. StL WeatherJunkie

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    So I was double checking all the CIPS analogs and it turns out the 60 hour NAM (left) and 84 hour GFS (right) both have December 4-6, 2002 as the #1 analog in multiple regions (5 in total). It's worth noting that this date range doesn't make the top 15 in the green or purple regions in the right hand image where the northern and southern stream energies are centered. This means that a) northern and southern stream energies are very different than 2002, b) the model solutions are very wrong in the most important areas, or the most likely option c) a tasty nibble of both a) and b). I did some more research into the December 4-6 time period and back-to-back storms impacted the east coast in 2002: "A record-breaking snowfall blanketed Hasbrouck Heights with one storm on Friday followed by a second storm on Saturday." I think we need to consider the possibility of two storms in a row for some lucky areas. This seems like a good time to bring back the BSR depiction of this storm system evolution. It's important to note how the system does a loop-di-loop inland before going coastal, which may be a result of phasing with the northern stream kicker:
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