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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

StL WeatherJunkie

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StL WeatherJunkie last won the day on November 13 2018

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    Morgantown, WV

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    Downhill skiing with more than 1 foot of fresh powder

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  1. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

    Looks like 1 wonky run at day 6 (way too much phasing) then minor corrections through the remainder of the medium/short range as it honed in on the final solution. IMHO, the last 5 frames are 100% typical of run-to-run variability. If I had an archive of Euro model runs, I'm sure I could find similar examples from 1, 2, 3+ years ago. In fact, I vividly remember multiple medium range Euro runs that were fantastic for MBY last winter, but they never panned out because the synoptic pattern favored coastal storms that repeatedly shafted MBY. Now that the synoptic pattern favors inland storms it's somehow the models' fault for showing coastal snows in the medium-long range that don't materialize? After the gang-busters start to the season in November it's understandable to be upset about the early season woes, but by now we should all know exactly what's going to happen. In other words, fool me once shame on the models, fool me twice shame on me.
  2. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

    This is a reasonable snow map based on historic storms that resemble the 12z GFS model output. The plains, great lakes region, and northern New England are the winners, which shouldn't come as much surprise given the winter season thus far. It's going to be tough to get warning criteria snowfall (>6") south of the PA/NY border, but icing issues may tip the scales in favor of warnings anyways.
  3. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

    I think the problem is not with the model, but rather the model products users are selecting. Snow maps suck and many different snow-to-liquid algorithms are now incorporated into various snow maps that only compound their suckage. It's really easy to use modelling errors as a scapegoat for a cruddy snow year, but I'm sure @Snobal will agree that day 5-6 forecasts have always been prone to busts, northwest shits, etc. The notion that medium-range model forecasts are now of similar quality to long-range model forecasts is complete hogwash.
  4. StL WeatherJunkie

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I agree with the first three points, but the last one is more questionable. Drought conditions improved substantially over the past couple months, but there's still a lot of drought left:
  5. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

    I really wish they'd just keep both of them running. Forecasters realize that all models are wrong and try to find the most probable solution, which is really difficult when modelers are constantly tweaking/updating/upgrading models to improve 'skill scores'.
  6. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I expect the 00z will follow suit ... 15z SREFs are much closer to the global models than the 12z NAM. Note that this is just QPF not snowfall.
  7. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Today's 12z Euro shifted slight to the south of this image and is 1 mb weaker.
  8. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

    El Nino events aren't officially declared until they are practically over so I think it's safe to say the secondary graphic is bait. This graphic would be an accurate depiction of what happened during this winter's weak El Nino if the red "L" was positioned over upstate NY.
  9. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

    Just because there's not much snow falling doesn't mean there's not much weather happening.
  10. StL WeatherJunkie

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    What you do you think about the discrepancies between averages of weekly values and monthly values provided by the CPC? I know differences in the dates being averaged exist, which could explain differences of ~0.1ºC during OND. However, differences during January are >0.3ºC suggesting one of the two data sets is erroneous. 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.86 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.86 1 1.1 1 0.7 0.95 0.84 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.46 0.8
  11. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 15th-17th Winter storm

    This forecast graphic from Marquette, MI is pure gold:
  12. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 19-22, 2019 | Commander-in-Chief Winter Storm

    500 mb linear trends for the past 6 GEFS means during this thread's dates. Here's your sign folks
  13. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I think the trends earlier on in the model runs are easier to see. The NAM is definitely trending towards the global models and the energy responsible for this system will be coming ashore for the 00z runs tonight. Will be interesting to see if there are any major changes.
  14. StL WeatherJunkie

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Still lots of variability on the 3z SREF. Someone between Cleveland OH and Raleigh NC will have a nice little event
  15. StL WeatherJunkie

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    Are you predicting the kelvin wave will boost ONI values for DJF and JFM even higher than the NDJ value of 0.8ºC?
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