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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

TheBlizzardOf1978

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    Paragon Indiana

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  1. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 26th-27th Clipper

    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1146 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019 Ensembles suggest an anomalously deep upper trough will develop over the Great Lakes during this period. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement in bringing a cold front through the area in the Thursday afternoon to Friday morning time frame. Will go with chance PoPs for snow showers during those periods. Light accumulations are possible. The ensembles are in general agreement in suggesting a disturbance will drop southeast into the long wave trough next weekend. There is a large spread among the individual members at this time as to the track and intensity of the associated surface surface system. Will go with chance PoPs for snow from Friday night into Sunday morning to cover this potential system. Additional accumulations are possible here as well.
  2. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    Snow rolls
  3. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    2_2019-01-19_19-04-20.mp4
  4. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 252 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 High pressure is expected to quickly move across Central Indiana today and depart this evening...bringing dry and cool weather to Central Indiana to end the work week. A powerful storm system is then expected to push out of the southern plains states and sweep into the Ohio valley on Saturday. The low will spread snow across the northern parts of Indiana and a mix of precipitation across Central Indiana before changing over to snow on on Saturday Afternoon. Significant snowfall amounts are expected as the storm passes. Much colder conditions are expected on Saturday night and Sunday as arctic high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley from Canada. This will result in some of the coldest temperatures of the winter season so far. The changeable weather is expected to continue as the work week begins as warmer air arrives for Monday and Tuesday ahead of another approaching cold front that may bring more precipitation on Tuesday Night...before yet another cold high pressure system arrives for the middle of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Surface analysis early this morning shows large high pressure in place over Minnesota...stretching south through the Mississippi Valley to Arkansas. A deep low pressure system was over the high plains of eastern Colorado. Water Vapor showed a plume of moisture stretching across Texas aiming for the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile aloft a deep trough was found over the Rockies...exiting into a more zonal flow across the plains and Ohio Valley. GOES16 shows extensive lower level cloud remaining across Indiana...with stratus in place. Dew points were in the middle 30s with light westerly flow across the forecast area. Snow pack and the weak warm air advection...higher dew points and snow pack were resulting in some fog across the area. Forecast soundings today show a steep inversion in place aloft with trapped lower level moisture lingering throughout the day. Time heights also show this lingering lower level moisture. Models both suggest that the surface high will quickly pass across the region today...providing little in the way of any kind of forcing while the flow aloft remains nearly zonal. Thus will keep the trend of cloudy skies today as the lower level flow gradually becomes easterly ahead of the approaching snow. Given the expected cloud skies and easterly flow will trend highs today at or below the forecast builder blends. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 252 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Dry weather will be expected this evening as the high pressure system departs. However the powerful storm system is expected to arrive overnight and early Saturday morning. Thus will keep a cloudy sky this evening but ramp up pops overnight as the the low arrives. GFS 290K Isentropic surface shows excellent Isentropic lift across Central Indiana on Saturday morning. Specific Humidities along this surface are near 4 g/kg...plenty of moisture. This strong lift arrives by 09Z but quickly shifts east by late morning as the the surface low is expected to quickly pass east of Indiana and wrap around flow begins on Saturday afternoon. Strong forcing remains in place aloft as the GFS shows a coupled jet aloft ahead of a sharp upper trough passing across the area. Other problem is the amount of warming across the area at IND...forecast soundings show hardly any layer above freezing...but as one goes farther south...more warm air is present aloft. Even so...surface temps at places like BMG look to remain at or above freezing overnight. Even at IND and HUF...the warm layer aloft is minimal even though surface temps look to be barely below freezing. Thus the freezing rain threat seems to be minimal...however...confidence on the rain/snow line is much smaller...and this will have large impacts on final snow totals. At this time this looks to be near I-70 and points south. Chance over to snow looks widespread on Saturday afternoon as a deformation band looks to set up across Central Indiana. Favorable Heavy snow trough axis at 700mb looks to pass across the area during the afternoon. Before departing east after 00Z Sunday. Through the afternoon...forecast soundings show a saturated column as wrap around precip continues to fall. If warning criteria is reached...it will likely be reached on Saturday Afternoon as this deformation band passes. Confidence is high for warning criteria to be reached across the North and northeast parts of the forecast area where there is no question that precip type will be snow. Farther south across the watch area...things are much more fuzzy. Will trend toward categorical pops for now and highs cooler than the blends on Saturday. Continue working with neighboring offices on watch/warning decisions. Upper support is lost on Saturday night as the upper trough axis exits east of Indiana. Forecast soundings dry out dramatically overnight as subsidence resumes in the wake of the system and the arrival of arctic air. May keep some low pops east for the first few hours after 00Z...but will overall trend toward a dry forecast and lows at or below the blends due to the new snow and cold air advection. High pressure will then build across Indiana for Sunday and Sunday Night. Models suggest ridging in place aloft by Sunday night amid NW flow. This will allow the intrusion of very cold air. Will stick with a dry forecast here along with temps at or below the blends given the cold air advection. 850mb temps are suggested to fall to -14c by 00Z Mon.
  5. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    Nowcast
  6. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 414 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 Forecast focus is on Saturday`s storm system. Tonight looking at lows in the mid 20s to low 30s, and Friday should see highs in the 30s. Cloudy skies will generally be the rule. This set of model runs for the weekend system continues to highlight t he effects of small differences in the track of surface and upper systems. Snow totals vary by several inches depending on the model of choice, as do the presence of freezing rain and ice totals from this. As a result, confidence is lower than one would hope for totals/ptype with this system. However, timing of the system`s arrival is in good agreement with PoPs moving in late Friday night and overspreading the area early Saturday morning. Given the various thermal profiles and a freezing line that is likely to fall somewhere in central Indiana, the gradient for snowfall amounts is likely to be tight. Forcing and moisture with this system will be ample, with strong frontogenesis initially followed by good upper forcing. However phasing of the system currently looks like it will occur to the east of the area, and this should keep highest totals (12+ inches) well northeast of here. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for a strip of freezing rain and sleet Saturday morning between the area of snow and rain, and right now this looks to fall along and just south of the I-70 corridor, but again this placement is low confidence, and only appears to last for a few hours so glaze from freezing rain would likely be around a tenth of an inch or less in that zone. To the north, all snow looks reasonable. Widespread amounts right now look like 4 to 6 inches across central counties and northward, with some potential for a strip of 8 inches or so around the Anderson and Muncie areas. Areas such as Seymour and Vincennes are looking at more rain than snow, and snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches. Again, these amounts will change with subsequent model runs as the rain/snow line shifts, and the distance between decent snowfall amounts and little to no accumulation looks very small with this system. Also of note, wind gusts on Saturday could be around 30 mph, which w ill obviously cause issues with visibilities when combined with the falling snow. Temperatures will start dropping rapidly Saturday night and could see wind chills below zero already Saturday night.
  7. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    00z ECMWF
  8. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 326 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday Night) Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The rain and snow will be falling at the start of the Thursday period. As noted in the near term section, temperatures will be right around freezing, so there is still some lower confidence in where rain/snow line will be. At any rate, as temperatures warm with the approach of the low pressure system, most areas will see just rain by midday. For now will go around 1 inch of snow accumulation across the northeast half of the area, with amounts quickly lowering to the southwest. As mentioned in the near term, with snow falling at rush hour, went with a Winter Weather Advisory, and will keep it until 15Z. By 15Z many areas will be rain. Main impacts will be lowered visibility during rush hour and potential slick spots. With temperatures right around freezing, untreated roads will be the worst. Precipitation tapers off during Thursday afternoon, and will only keep some low PoPs early Thursday night in the far east as the system exits. Friday will be dry with the area in between systems. A stronger low pressure system will move through Kentucky Saturday. Models continue to differ with the specifics of this overall system, which continues the uncertainty on how this impacts the area. Concerns are for how much warm air makes it into the system both at the surface and aloft, and whether any of the heavier rains to the south of the area will rob moisture for our area. At the moment though, it still looks like significant snows are possible across northern areas with some icing across parts of the central and southern sections of the area. However, the higher snow totals continue to come down with each run. Thus will hold off on any early Winter Storm Watches and wait to see if better consensus happens. Will continue with a Special Weather Statement highlighting the potential. Windy and much colder conditions will move in for Saturday night. The cold air has the potential to flash freeze the water on roads from the snow and rain, which could lead to additional headaches. Wind chills by late Saturday night will be below zero for some areas.
  9. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 241 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019 Another Winter Storm may Impact Central Indiana this Weekend... A Winter storm may push out of the southern plains on Friday night and push across Kentucky on Saturday. This may result in another significant accumulating snow for Central Indiana on Saturday and Saturday Night. It remains too soon to determine specific snowfall amounts. However...current forecast models suggest accumulating snow...that could result in snow covered roads and surfaces and difficult travel conditions. There is still uncertainty in the forecast. The timing and the path of the storm could change in later forecasts. People should stay aware of the forecast and be prepared for the possibility of more snow on Saturday.
  10. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    Here we "snow" again?! All eyes on storm system for next weekend. Has potential to produce good snow, but also may be sharp cut-off line to heaviest snowfall. Stay Tuned!
  11. TheBlizzardOf1978

    January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

    LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... Issued at 348 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019 An upper wave moving through northwesterly flow will move through the area Thursday into Thursday night, along with a surface low that will track along the Ohio River. This will bring chances for snow Thursday morning that will change over to rain or a mix (rain south, mix north) during the day. The system will move out late Thursday night allowing for a dry Friday. Friday night the next system will move in, but this will be coming out of the south and will have access to more moisture. Models are coming into much better agreement on this system, and as a result will accept the initialization likely to categorical PoPs. This weekend system has the potential to be another significant snowfall producer for central Indiana.
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