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Grace

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Grace last won the day on January 7

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  1. 12z 3k NAM...often over does tropical systems...but if its halfway close it's the end of the world as we know it on the Gulf coast
  2. "Climo speaking" you'd usually want colder anomalies in regions 1&2. But if it's weak Nina or cool neutral there may be other forcing mechanisms that dominate the pattern rather than ENSO. Currently, the CFS is forecasting a cool -ENSO below Nina thresholds. However, it's way early & guidance may be playing catch-up to a true weak/moderate La Nina.
  3. Been watching that flip...very weak Nina looking. Certainly a game changer for winter ENSO thoughts.
  4. It'll be interesting to see where this goes from here. My prediction is a messy ENSO rather than a full-fledged Nina or Nino. And I know nothing & am guessing...literally. :)
  5. If...BIG IF...we have another El Nino winter. This is what 2nd year Nino winters look like overall: Obviously the strength of a Nino plays the largest role. The weaker Nino's were colder, except you have a cold moderate Nino winter in 1987-88. Super Nino of 2015-16 is the warmest. FWIW, I do think solar minimum this winter will enhance blocking...which basically can be great or screwy.
  6. Wow! Nice find! I wonder what the odds are that it would nail the forecast from April again...lol. We can hope though
  7. First JAMSTEC Dec-Feb forecast. I see some ridging in east but I'd take that outlook. I'm sure its correct...lol
  8. Interesting SST's forecasted by the UKMET as we head toward fall. And look at the +PDO signature
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