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  1. I've been watching nao and qbo mostly. Both are matched and trending the same nearly identical to 1995 at this time.
  2. Im no.meteorologist, and Im barely a hobbyist. However, just looking at the numerical charts on the qbo and nao and taking into account of the low solar this year, yes the atmosphere matches. Unfortunately climate doesn't have to match any latitude or longitude to still match nearly identical past occurrences. Also the climate lately does seem to be slightly warmer than the recent past so I believe that must be included in anyone's future forecasts. Especially since there hasn't been any extreme cold over the north pole yet. Please take what I'm responding here as only my attempt to find a match regarding the qbo and nao with low solar. It is not an exact to the decimal match however if you do check the years it is very very close and trending into a favorable position.
  3. Going into the winter talk I wouldn't use the water temps yet as they look to be slowly changing. I was looking into the last time the nao was negative at these values for summer months and then looked into the qbo during low solar. And lo and behold the qbo was very close to the same years and the nao and trending. July/August seem to hold the key to use as the same valuation if the qbo trends the same and if the nao starts trending positive. I noticed the year that matched the closest is 1995/96. We'll see
  4. Keep in mind this storm will be happening around the same time the nao "should" start to blip negative. So, this could be the storm to flip that script. If that is the case we want this storm to be quite strong and a cutter.
  5. I see the spread of that towards the end is definitely showing more negative than neutral-positive. That would favor at least zonal means with potential for slight block correct?
  6. Pacific firehose or not, the past few runs you have posted for us all has been consistently showing more blues invading the northern midAtlantic around the 17th. Funny, as it looks to hold that chill instead of a quick hit and run. Im wondering if the -NAO actually starts building around that time as well?
  7. This particular run of this model shows my area splitting the gap and receiving 0 precipitation.
  8. That NAO region looks to be getting the ridge look towards the end of that loop. The ridge also seems to be connecting to the Alaskan ridge.
  9. That storm in the gulf has my interest. But as to the storm for these dates it seems the pattern is set for rain along the eastern side of the apps.
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