I keep doing these elaborate posts, but then go to press submit and its greyed out and "saving..."
So I'll try to recap....the cyclogensis/bombogenesis will cause strong upward motion which then causes dynamic cooling. In the spoiler are the 700mb uvv maps from the Euro
As you can see, the areas of upward motion remain offshore until hitting SNE, and the temps don't respond until after that. Now is that where the area of upward motion will be the greatest? The 500mb map has some vorticity on it in the same area, but I'd like to see there be an upper low to better predict. Its just not there, and frankly, a mess at that level. I'd also look at the 700mb low. It doesn't form until hr 90 which is a little too late. Even then, the circulation isn't established as evidenced by the southerlies north of the 284. Its cranking by hr 96 though.