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idecline

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  1. ...reading some info earlier from Global Ocean Assessments page...and other info about ongoing El Nino 'trends'...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/yxue/MKmodel_ellfb_clim81-10_godas/fig1.gif .. - WWV is defined as average of depth of 20ºC in [120ºE-80ºW, 5ºS-5ºN]. Statistically, peak correlation of Nino3 with WWV occurs at 7 month lag (Meinen and McPhaden, 2000). - Since WWV is intimately linked to ENSO variability (Wyrtki 1985; Jin 1997), it is useful to monitor ENSO in a phase space of WWV and NINO3.4 (Kessler 2002). - Increase (decrease) of WWV indicates recharge (discharge) of the equatorial oceanic heat content. ...it seems that the oceanic heat has moved into 'discharge' mode...this means warmer surface waters (thus SST's) are being distributed from the equatorial region towards the pole(s)...this is a waning phase of an El Nino...will it be a neutral, La Nina or El Nino this fall? ...climatology and the 'experts' are not yet in agreement...as fall approaches the distinctions may be clearer...a downwelling OKW has yet to complete it's trek across the Eq. Pacific (W-E)...so the solution is still in limbo...idee has a sneaky feeling of back to back Nino's... ...yet idee is 'often' wrong about his 'pronouncements'...yet he is ever trying to be humble and learn from his mistakes and therefore, to keep learning new things...to be 'uncertain' is a better place to start from than is 'certainty'...uncertainty allows new 'learning' to creep in...
  2. ...was looking at severe potential for this week...and found a very interesting 'Disco' from DVN ...Quad Cities, IA/IL... interesting extended forecast information ...
  3. ...the latest weekly CPC/NCEP ENSO/El Nino diagnostic is in...and again the ping-pong of higher then lower SST's is occurring in Region 1+2, and Region 3 temperatures have dropped rather quickly...this is a bad sign for a continuing El Nino...yet we are in the summer in the NH they are in the midst of winter in the SH...and the strong Humboldt current tht moves north along the SA coast is bringing much cooler waters into these regions from the south...still a build-up cooler SST's that begins in the far Eastern Equatorial Pacific could be a sign of a deteriorating El Nino pattern...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf here are the latest ENSO Region SST's (anomalies) : The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 0.8ºC Niño 3.4 0.5ºC Niño 3 0.2ºC Niño 1+2 -0.3ºC
  4. ...well...yes...although by not comparing any other year and instead watching this year's event, we see that positive anomalies are back in all 4 Nino Regions...this is a 'subtle' reminder that this event is not dead and another Kelvin wave is on it's way... ...the latest weekly CPC/NCEP ENSO/El Nino diagnostic also appears to show that theat 'heat' levels in the ocean are again on the rise, and another OKW (downwelling portion) is on it's way across the equatorial region to 'reinforce' the El Nino SST's... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...interestingly this event also shows the deeper signs of continuing in that the thermocline off the South American coast is still at a 'deeper' level than normal...not only is this a sign of a 'continuing El Nino, it is very rare for it to continue into Austral fall and winter months... ...despite being "Exploited"...this 'punk' of an El Nino is "not dead Yet"... (more inane rantings from idee in the very near future)...
  5. ...OMG...a bunch of UFO's are right outside your window...
  6. ...thanks...idee just wants to learn more about weather whenever he can...yes there was anomalous HP in Alaska and Canada (which are 'strong' tele-connections to El Nino type conditions)...yet our storms were cold Aleutian LP's not warmer mid-Pacific el Nino storms... ...this year's pattern has been anomalous in many places...and a split flow really separates the cold air from warm air...yet there is the 'feeling' that the more 'erratic' and severe storms with heavy precipitation will continue into summer ...this is eerily similar to much of this year's long-term look...the MJO and/or El Nino prospects are still in play...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf
  7. Lifetime California resident says: NO it has not! The Pacific jet has been unusually active all late Winter into Spring...we were cold and wet all the month of May...also the first 'heatwave' of the year just occurred during the past week...yet it was off-shore flow which if it occurs, it is usually in Aug.- Oct. Also the position and activity of low pressure in the GOA has kept an active jet for months...a Great Basin ridge has sent the energy from a split flow in a more zonal track for months...cold air to the north and warmer , stormier flow through the lower plains... ...now that the 'thaw' has occured for N. Dakota and Iowa etc. we should see warming further north...one caveat is severe storms may be the result of the very late mixture of temperature profiles over the CONUS...in idee's addled opinion... ...we had normal to above rainfall, the Sierras had close to all time record snowfall in some areas...the 5th largest snowpack in recent history...https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/05/02/sierra-snowpack-is-188-percent-of-normal/ ...it is likely that the weak El Nino created an El Nino like pattern of many more lows coming south into California...yet we only had one tropical style connection, and it was more of an AR (Atmospheric River) situation ...idee's agrees with a change in patterns soon as this ~990mb low in the Aleutians brings moisture in along the Northern tier of the CONUS...and the potential of renewed MJO and/or El Nino activity in early July may create the 'monster' of a summer that nobody asked for... ...the 'Westerlies' bring a large portion of the weather 'streams' into the CONUS...if you watch the western satellite, look at maps,(especially 'upper air' 500mb) this will show trends towards what 'we' can expect in "IMBY"...and with continued Pac. jet activity...well... ...the upper air map shows the western ridge...but it has been displaced to the west and south in general the last year or so...buffering much of 'tropical' convection, yet allowing a lot of energy to sneak down the West Coast all year...highly anomalous IMHO... ...so thanks for listening to another idee rant...
  8. Fog wonderful FOG! Fog, fog, fog....spam...fog...spam... ...much cooler along the coast as fog rolls in...interior valleys still warm to hot and heat is building to the north into Pacific NorthWest...another day of cooling around Bay Area...then likely more seasonal temps as trof comes down from GOA...
  9. ...your 'hunch' is very well a 'possibility'...'doubling up' is not that uncommon in what we know about ENSO events...there is the subject of the OKW that @Philly_Weather1 mentioned above...and my earlier post from the State of Washington's climatologist seemed to agree ...and for 'fans' of the RRWT (idee doesn't know the 'overlay' technique for the map) here is a map by OPC Pacific...a harbinger of the CONUS weather in about 17 days? ...very interesting indeed...
  10. ...records were broken all over the SF Bay Area yesterday and today...June 10 and 11...San Francisco reached into the high 90's with other coastal towns getting close to the century mark also ...100 degree temperatures are not that uncommon around the Bay Area...usually in late summer and early is when we get an 'off-shore' flow event...these temperatures seem very hot for June, especially after a cold and wet month of May...headlines cross-country told of San Francisco temperatures being higher than many in the Desert SouthWest on Monday...fog will return soon ...San Francisco Bay Area temperature records from June 10th above, and temps. as of ~12:53 pm today (Tuesday June 11th) show the lingering heat that suddenly appeared with this 'Off-shore' event...Who said California is so cool?
  11. Latest CPC/NCEP weekly ENSO/El Nino diagnostic is in...continued cooling of surface waters in Regions 1+2 from the previous 'trailing' portion of an OKW have really cooled SST's to below normal levels...other 3 regions are still in midst of 'El Nino'... ...in our limited knowledge of previous El Nino/La Nina events this continued drop in Regions 1+2 would almost be certain 'anecdotal' evidence of this event's end...yet, this El Nino has defied the odds already and became 'Official' when many said it would not... ...now it may again defy the odds again as another OKW (downwelling) has initiated in the Far Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean and is heading towards the east...this may be the 'kick-start' of one more last push of convection towards the eastern basin... ...OLR anomalies are still keeping the column of convection that usually exists around Indonesia to a minimum, and anomalous convection is still present in the Central EQ. Pacific Ocean (low OLR #'s)... ...combined with the stubborn pattern of Pacific jet stream activity make this event look like it still maintaining an influence on the atmosphere..despite no real 'coupling' of moisture feeds, the Pacific LP pattern in the GOA still has a 'Nino' feel to it... still trying to behave in a winter/spring syle pattern makes this a very unusual event to say the least...what is next? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf quote from above ENSO diagnostic : basically this explains(plus an influx of cooler waters from the SA southern coast via the Humboldt current) why the waters in Regions 1+2 have cooled so dramatically...still another 'warm-up' may be imminent... ...again these graphs are 'food for thought'...they definitely show warmer waters potentially arriving in Regions 1+2 soon...IMHO
  12. ...a bit cooler along the coast today...with further cooling expected as marine layer will push further inland in the days to come...Meanwhile...Records continue to fall around the West Coast...Salinas Airport reached 100F before Noon today and San Francisco had an overnight temperature of only 72F, according to NWS that was third highest 'low' temperature in modern San Francisco history...this after reaching 100F or very close to that in the "City By The Bay"...wow!...that is very hot for anywhere in the Bay Area, much less San Francisco! ...again...these are extremely warm temperatures for many parts of the West Coast...please take heed of 'Heat Advisories'...stay hydrated, check on the elderly and pets, avoid strenuous exercise during peak heating...etc.. hopefully much cooler tomorrow and Thursday...
  13. ...High Pressure off the West Coast has created an 'off-shore' event in Northern California and the San Francisco Bay Area...records fell today June 10th as off-shore breezes pushed hotter air all the way to the ocean...other areas in the West Coast are suffering also... ...these satellite views show the large area of high pressure dominating the West Coast region...only some embedded high clouds in the atmosphere are keeping some areas from even more extreme temps this afternoon...clouds at least keep the direct radiation a little bit lessened... Heat warnings and advisories are posted for many areas Statewide...areas right along the coast such as Monterey and San Francisco smashed records for the date reaching 94F and 95F because of the wind coming from the interior of the State..off-shore flow compresses and warm the air all the way to the ocean...these events are not that rare, yet they usually occur in late summer when the fog is not as prevalent...records temps could fall again tomorrow with some expected cooling along the coast... ...these tweets from local NWS offfice show the incredible warm-up that can occur along the coast...especially in Monterey today...please be aware to take precautions as stated in the 'heat advisories'...especially after such a cool and rainy month of May...for many this heat is very uncomfortable...so much for everyone who "wishes for heat" in other areas of the CONUS...California is not always as temperate as others expect...the heat waves can be extreme, and suddenly can turn back to cooler fog influenced weather in Summer and Fall...
  14. West Coast heatwave has already hit the San Francisco Bay Area... which @Philly_Weather1 had somewhat expected in his forecast above...fog pushes in the next two days(very seasonal) and then another warm-up into next week...first broad 'ridge' of HP in awhile... climatologically not unusual at all...often HP dominates off the West Coast of California between June and October for weeks at a time...we get little to no rainfall during 'normal' Summer months...Southern California often benefits from some monsoonal moisture... Northern California is dry most years with most storminess confined to afternoon convection in the Sierras...with some blow off towards the west on rare occasions...drought years see the ridge hold steady throughout much of our winter months... https://www.mercurynews.com
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