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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

idecline

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  1. ...the beginning of a severe 'outbreak' may begin tomorrow...
  2. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...the latest weekly CPC/NCEP ENSO/El Nino diagnostic is in...we are still under 'mild' El Nino conditions...the experts graphs are forecasting this event to last into fall, but that remains to be seen...what is more important is this spring's reaction to El Nino's effect... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...a most interesting observation is made about OKW's...that the front portion of the wave brings warmer sub-surface waters to the east (downwelling portion)...the trailing portion of the wave brings in some cooler anomalies (upwelling portion)...well so far this El Nino has maintained it's overall 'grip' on the SST's and sub-surface heating to continue to exist for the time being...several mixes of cooler waters off the SA coast have lowered the SST's in the Regions 1+2 several times, only to see the SST's spike once the mix-in was over... ...also the diagnostic quotes: ...loosely based on the above information...the 'convection center' over Maylasia and the Phillipines is not producing much activity (higher OLR)...while the area around the Dateline shows continued 'anomalous' convection that is still creeping eastwards...hmmm... ...could it be that one more strong OKW will form before the cooler trailing portions begin to erode the high SST's numbers...and will 'convection' continue to progress eastwards...signifying a closer 'coupling' of El Nino conditions to cause effects into the CONUS soon... ...the probabilities of the El Nino lasting into next winter are only so, so at this point...especially when seasonal changes would really mute any Northern Hemisphere outcomes during the summer months when the Pacific jet is shunted to the far northern latutudes... ...in the meanwhile...some possible effect of the ongoing El Nino conditions could start to take place in the coming weeks...especially if another MJO progresses across to influence the influx of warm moist air from the tropical regions into storms in the CONUS... ...now ...further explanations of the 'bathtub' and why it 'graphically' shows so much about how the ocean 'responds' to ENSO/El Nino-La Nina conditions: ...this was views from NASA TOPEX/Poseidon program that shows the 'bumpy' surface the ocean, indicating sea heights above normal...this product is no longer available...so the 'bathtub' is what we have now...the sea-level heights and thermocline depths are vital features of an El Nino event...https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/topex/ the 'bathtub', again, from the TAO/Triton array animations page shows these features in another manner...and notice which way the arrows of sub-surface movement are all facing...ummm...yes, correct...west to east...which agains signals a still ongoing El Nino (Official!)
  3. idecline

    April 11, 2019 | Severe Weather

    ...no worries to either of you (Monger or Cliche)...idee loves your informative posts...and also the sense of humor...my question was only meant to be dripping with the mood of sarcasm set off by another 'Dud'-ly day of severe weather...
  4. idecline

    April 11, 2019 | Severe Weather

    ...latest SPC... ...now it's Day 3-4 that are looking more like a threat for severe weather...
  5. idecline

    April 11, 2019 | Severe Weather

    ......the above quotes are sarcasm?...idee does not want the unsuspecting to be taking your conversation out of context...
  6. idecline

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    ....this would only throw another "monkey wrench" into the forecasts for late April into May...the El Nino has not gone away...the MJO may have a further say...and it is snowing in the MidWest after today (it rhymes: May, say, and today)...and RRWT says lookout MidWest for continued battles of warm and cold air over their 'territory'...what an amazing year for weather this could turn out to be... ...and as idee has noted over the last few years...the HP that usually 'locks in' over the Great Basin will again run off and hide...allowing another series of storms to come into the CONUS from the Eastern Pacific Ocean and the vigorous jet stream...
  7. idecline

    Apr.4-6 West Coast Storm/ Pacific Jet...what next?

    ...thanks to PlanetMaster for remaining 'vigilant' in his retro-fitting my initial post to fit current conditions...our West Coast storm was mostly contained to the northern part of the region...yet the jet from the EPAC still seems to be very strong...a brief ridge of HP is forecast to shunt storms to the north...and OPC 48hr shows the high building in rather strongly...yet the the OPC 500mb 96 hour view offers the 'compromise of 'inside slider' storms coming over the top of the ridge to bring energy into the CONUS at a very low altitude for April...this would set up a strong chance for continuing inclement weather into the Plains and a higher chance for severe weather along the southern Plains and up into the Ohio valley the next few weeks...California may stay drieir, yet the caveat is the proposed giant HP shown onthe surface maps has not materialized in several years to the extent that these maps are showing...as idee has noticed in the last few years 'our California' ridging has been shunted slightly south and west each spring allowing a bit of upper level flow to sneak south, rather than going 'over the top' into Canada(which is much more common in spring)...anomalous HP over Western Canada has really been a big player in the 'disruption' of what many consider 'normal' for this time of year..or is this just one of many patterns of weather that we have not quite figured out as well as we think we can forecast...perhaps the 'patterns' are not written in stone, as some 'lazy' weather enthusiasts and 'forecasters' seem to believe in...the weather across the globe is all interconnected and as such, we should be in awe of it, not angry at it... ...this is just to show the potentialities for the next few days...and how the storms in the West are very important to what comes next across the CONUS...thanks ...idee
  8. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...the above link takes you to the latest weekly NCEP/CPC ENSO/El Nino diagnostic PDF...it shows the 'Official' El Nino CPC/IRI statistics that bear out the 'fact' that we are (and have been) under the spell of an El Nino this winter into spring...albeit without a lot of 'direct' effect felt in the United States...another extended Pacific jet gives hope of more rain and snow entering into the system from the Pacific jet stream still running a high amount of activity in to the west at a lower than average latitude than climatology would suggest... ...this would have bearing on the amount of rain, snow and severe weather that looks to be in store for the next couple of weeks across the CONUS...California has not quite gotten any spectacular moisture feed storms for awhile, yet activity is sending lots of energy eastwards ...as to the El Nino...the OKW that is slowly appproaching the SA coast should eliminate the small vestige of cooler than average sub-surface waters around 90W in the next few weeks...the sudden drop in SST's to -0.2C in the Nino Regions 1+2 has already risen back to 0.0C only one week later, and SST's in the other 3 regions are still high, indicating an ongoing El Nino, not a declining El Nino...this should be even more evident with the surfacing of the OKW any day now...winds are still erratic in the Pacific equatorial basin and have not reverted to anything that resembles a reduction in El Nino conditions...in fact, the pattern seems to be gearing up for one more shot at a 'true' El Nino coupling which could last into May or later... ...all three of these graphs show ongoing El Nino conditions...with a distinct leaning towards another 'ramp up' of activity in the near future...and now (Ta Da) comes idee's favorite 'view' of an ENSO event...the TAO/TRITON Array 'bathtub' view... ...and for those not having "3D vision"...here is the 'official explanatory of the 'view'...a very dramatic change is evident with a simple observation of the surface temps in the EPAC...and a comparison of El Nino conditions from March of 2016... Enjoy! https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/....the TAO/TRITON animations give a very convincing overview of how 'dynamic' the actual conditions of an ENSO event are, and 'observation' is always a very 'visceral' way to become educated about these events...
  9. Ridging over the West on Thursday will give way to a series of shortwave troughs, producing widespread precipitation including locally heavy high elevation snow accumulations from the Pacific Northwest and northern California to the northern Rockies. Rain rates at times will exceed 0.25 inches per hour. Areal average precipitation of 1 to 2 inches in expected with snow across the higher terrain. There is a very localized threat of flash flooding along the steeper slopes of the Sierra/Shasta Range and burn scars where soils are more sensitive.
  10. ...the first couple of little systems to come through California this week were pretty much just minor nuisance storms(except for the giant downpour in Chico, CA)...Friday's storm looks a bit more significant, with widespread rain and snow in the Sierra's...severe weather to the east? ...the GOES shows the trough of LP over California right now, very little forcing, so light showers into Thu./Thursday night should see the edges of the next vigorous storm moving in somtime Friday with winds and rain into Saturday morning...from there some are saying HP, maybe a week or so of warm temperate weather in area...then all bets are off, as the extended Pacific jet may make inroads late next week... ...the 48hr OPC Pacific map shows a quickly maturing storm aiming at the West Coast...although it appears that the low will jettison more to the north(in line with climatology) before moving east...to idee this seems to set a temporary buckle (HP ridge) in the atmosphere, sending storms over the top until(if/when) the purported extended Pacific jet arrives...if this is in line with the RRWT type of thought then this would be around the 10th or 11th of April give or take a few days... ...no recent MJO activity or El Nino 'hook-up' appear to be available for 'augmentation of storms, and climatology suggests that the Pacific jet jogs more north as seasons progress...the 500mb long range outputs will give a clue soon...
  11. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...the latest NCEP/CPC ENSO/El-Nino diagnostic is in...much cooler waters persist in the Regions 1+2...(probably due to what looks to be upwelling right along the SA coast from storminess and a continuing strong, cool Humboldt current that has made forecasting both El-Nino's and La Nina's very difficult in the last few years...this side(southern) has always been a little lop-sided with so much cooler water being transferred from the Antarctic clime north from Chile towards Peru...(lot of ice still left in the Antarctic...idee has heard this for years now) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...let's look at TAO/TRITON Data...https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assorted-plots ...um... temperatures are still slowly moving east, in spite of strong trades putting the 'real' El-Nino in limbo... just another MJO enhancement or WWB away from the Regions 1+2 warming again for continued progression of the easterly progress of 'convection'...as the NCEP/CPC diagnostic says: ...to idee this 'tells' of a continuing battle of eastern 'progression' of convection being interrupted(or lessened by continued "non-coupled' conditions...however the continuation of 'suppressed convection in far western EQ Pacific Ocean gives the chance for another chance of 'late-season' coupling....especially with the arrival of the next OKW on the shores of SA...if the continuing regime of cooler waters in Region 1+2 continue, then so-called modified 'Modoki' effects may be all we see of this event...their is a lot of convection near the dateline... ...all in all this has not been a 'prototypical' El-Nino event by any means...and our modern understanding of ENSO events is very limited by lack of observation and data before the 20th century...let's see what the next week brings...(and hopefully the March 'bathtub' view)
  12. idecline

    Mar.25-29 West Coast/ Storm Track is in motion...

    ...heavy rain and wind overnight in the SF Bay Area...front pushed east leaving scattered showers and embedded T-Sstorms during the day...clearing now with another impulse to come through tomorrow...storm track is shifting north for weekend...(changing end date) ...OPC 48hr: shows enventual partly cloudy conditions and warmer into Sunday...possible more northerly storm track on Mon/Tue....
  13. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...the latest weeklies are out...significant cooling occurred in the Regions 1+2...(upwelling of cooler sub-surface waters combined with a cold tongue of water from Panama area )...this could be trouble as Uncle Larry noted(climatologically speaking)...or a lull before the recent OKW has re-warmed the surface waters...yes, each El-Nino contains the 'seeds' of it's own demise within these OKW's, as the trailing portions do move some amount of cooler water into the zones 1+2, yet idee still feels that we have one more surge of possible 'coupling'... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...sea level anomalies, along with the depth of the thermocline along the South American coast still suggest that this El Nino event is still ongoing...low sea level heights in the Western Equatorial Pacific are anomalous...indicating inhibition of the 'usual' convective output... ...higher than normal sea level heights in the mid to eastern fringes of the equatorial waters still signal a movement of convective processes towards the far eastern equatorial Pacific...and a very strong batch of much warmer than average subsurface waters are arriving... ...if these 're-inforcements' of warmer waters do re-invigorate the action of this 'late onset' El-Nino, the effects would continue to be felt until perhaps late April...when even if the conditions persist, they would have less effect on the CONUS as the Pacific jet moves north...
  14. idecline

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    note: idee edited out SOI chart... ...and so comes the end to 'dryness'...(at least out West...and those pesky Westerlies)...here is the Western Pacific GOES WEST rainbow ir for today ...the West Coast will have several impulses entering the CONUS starting 'now'...this will send perturbations in the atmosphere across the CONUS for the next week at least...from this set-up we can view that a probable extended period of Pacific jet energy is on it's way...
  15. ...it appears that the West Coast is back in the sights for a continued influx of moisture coming in from the North Eastern Pacific...several low pressure systems are doing a 'Fujiwhara' dance out off the coast of California...a front is draped across Northern California as we speak... ...the low to our north is pivoting around an axis that includes what appears to be the stronger of the two lows which the latter is centered well offshore, likely to come inland by Wednesday...a view of the OPC 48hr: map makes it appear that the next system (#3) will arrive on it's heels... ...very complex looking at this moment...continued energy surging across our region looks to be the forecast for the work week...with rain chances on and off for much of this time... ...NWS is issuing Storm Warnings for the Northern and Southern Sierras... ...high winds and heavy rain will move north to south as several impulses move in off the Pacific...it will be 'wait and see' if any augmentation of sub-tropical moisture enhances any of these systems at this time...Southern California may stay dry south of Point Conception...off shore flow
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