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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

idecline

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  1. ...heavy rain hit the Sonoma area today...the North Bay Area has seen flooding...the Russian River west of Santa Rosa is going to surpass flood stage sometime Friday...mudslide closed lanes on Hwy. 17 between Santa Cruz and San Jose...San Jose had wind and light rain...Santa Cruz Mountains locations received 3-4 inches according to early reports...Guerneville area has received up to 8 inches of rainfall...one of the towns right on the Russian River that often gets flooding after prodigious rainfall events...more to come ... Southern California may be next in line...heaviest rainfall has been in coastal areas where uplift has dropped large amounts of rain...
  2. idecline

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    ...continued wet weather out west...(and some doubted possible ENSO-type influence this winter into spring?)...well...tropical moisture(cliche:Atmospheric River) is being transported into the next several systems arriving on the West Coast(after over a week of cold and low snows)...heavy rain, high winds and possible localized flooding possible this late week (Wed thru Sat.) with more rain progged for next week...hmm...naysayers better be ready for a wet continuation into spring along the West Coast... in idee's addled opinion... check out these two satellite maps and the OPC 500mb 96hr: ...and some have poo-pooed this year's possible ENSO effect...colder waters have surfaced along the SA coast....another OKW is still to arrive late month into March...we shall see....idee
  3. Watches, Warnings or Advisories for Santa Clara (CAC085) California This page shows alerts currently in effect for Santa Clara (CAC085) California and is normally updated every two-three minutes. Please see here for other state and listing by county. Last updated: 13:40 PST on 02-12-2019 Flash Flood Watch Issued: February 12 at 1:40PM PST Expiring: February 14 at 10:00AM PST Urgency: Expected Status: Actual Areas affected:Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore; East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range; North Bay Interior Valleys; North Bay Mountains; Northern Monterey Bay; Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley; San Francisco; San Francisco Bay Shoreline; San Francisco Peninsula Coast; Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose; Santa Cruz Mountains; Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest; Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast; Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio High Wind Warning Issued: February 12 at 1:29PM PST Expiring: February 14 at 10:00AM PST Urgency: Expected Status: Actual Areas affected:Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore; East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range; Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Park; North Bay Mountains; Northern Monterey Bay; San Francisco; San Francisco Bay Shoreline; San Francisco Peninsula Coast; Santa Cruz Mountains; Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest; Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast Wind Advisory Issued: February 12 at 1:29PM PST Expiring: February 14 at 10:00AM PST Urgency: Expected Status: Actual Areas affected:East Bay Interior Valleys; North Bay Interior Valleys; Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley; Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose; Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio Hydrologic Outlook Issued: February 12 at 11:52AM PST Urgency: Future Status: Actual Areas affected:Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore; East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range; East Bay Interior Valleys; Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Park; North Bay Interior Valleys; North Bay Mountains; Northern Monterey Bay; Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley; San Francisco; San Francisco Bay Shoreline; San Francisco Peninsula Coast; Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose; Santa Cruz Mountains; Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest; Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast; Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio ...um...looks like some warnings are up...
  4. ...what a cool weather period California has been in....mountain snow as low as 1,000ft. again hit the Bay Area on Saturday and Sunday. Major snows fell in the Sierras, with some areas receiving over 5-7ft. of fresh snow, some ski areas have a base of over 300 inches already... ...this next storm is not only bringing down more cold air from the GOA but it is slated to have a large tropical 'tap' of moisture surging up...this will only augment rain totals to several inches of rain...high winds and rain could cause localized flooding and debris flows...areas with low snowcould receive mostly rain which could exacerbate downstream flooding potential as warm rain will combine with melting snow to create heavy downstream flows...the Russian River areas near Guerneville are expecting up to 8 inches of rain which put the Russian River above flood stage..... ...the two NOAA GOES WEST satellite views show the moisture rich 'storm' poised to move into Central California starting tonight...Thursday will see high winds, heavy downpours, and possible flooding...warmer air is mixing in from the tropics...Southern California may see generous totals...especially the southern Sierra mountains, although snow levels will rise as warmer air comes in after the lighter precipitation ahead of the 'front' come through tonight...Wednesday looks to be stormy across the region...next wave of energy will arrive on Friday...as OPC 48hr. shows below...and people have doubted any type of 'tropical' connection occuring this year...this could be a sign of things to come into late Feb./early March... ...as the first storm exits another cooler system looks to drop in (again) from the GOA...the Pacific is extremely active right now and should keep bringing moisture into the rest of CONUS for the near time...long term is becoming less clear with this new moisture tap being accessed...
  5. Snow came down all over the Bay Area Mountains and hillsides on early Tuesday morning...up to 8 inches covered Mt. Hamilton...2-3 inches fell in the Santa Cruz Mountains...and even Twin Peaks in San Francisco saw light amounts...Winter Wonderland!
  6. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Region 1+2 has spiked back to +1.0C...anomalous divergent winds were seen across the region and another (albeit perhaps smaller) OKW is heading across the basin from west to east...still believe in mild El-Nino conditions and atmospheric 'coupling' will appear shortly... ...the thermocline (all important) has now started to dive in Region 1+2...see graphs in above 'presentation by CPC/NCEP ...this view shows entire basin...the bathtub is definitely 'sloshing' towards the east...(West Coast of the South America)...this is the 'real deal'...IMHO...we will have an official El-Nino this year and effects are still to be felt in the next 3 months...idee https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/
  7. ...very cold overnight...it was raining in San Jose at 38 F late that night ...significant snows were seen all over the Bay Area! https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Snow-Bay-Area-Tuesday-505355261.html
  8. idecline

    Jan.30-Feb.3 West Coast Storm/ Tropical Influx?

    More four-day storm totals released by the National Weather Service's Bay Area office: Saint Helena 4.24 inches Novato 3.39 inches Santa Rosa 2.98 inches Oakland Hills 2.56 inches San Francisco 2.53 inches Petaluma 2.18 inches Concord 2.06 inches SFO Airport 1.76 inches Oakland 1.58 inches Livermore 1.44 inches San Jose 1.36 inches
  9. The past 3-4 days have brought wild weather to the Bay Area and the rest of California...feet of new snow in the Sierras and thunder, lightning and hailstorms...several days saw high winds and torrential downpours...especially in mountains and the valleys near the coast...now possible snow!? this satellite view shows the low just off the OR/CAL border swirling towards the Bay Area...temperatures are dropping...SeaPac airport in Seattle reported 1.7" of snow today according to NWS Seattle tweet...many mountaintops in the Bay Area could see 1 to 2 inches overnight... ...the OPC map shows the next two 'fronts' coming straight down from the NW, where snow has already fallen at very low altitudes and some record cold has arrived...Mt. Hamilton (4,265ft) east of San Jose, and Loma Prieta (3,790ft.) in the Santa Cruz Mountains should see snow... ...a local 'forecaster' says that some inland valleys may get mixed precipitation, light flurries, or even snow to nearly sea-level, possible 'thunder-snow' can come from thunderstorms 'embedded' in the 'cold portion of this system...clearing possible late Tuesday into Wednesday... ...the 'horizon' and GOA look to send more storms by this weekend...
  10. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    Science to idee is about humanity...the outcomes and "anecdotal" evidence provided in this "out of date" non-fiction 'novel' is very informational, yes some is only about floods and 'teleconnections' of fire outbreaks and changes in environments where El-Nino has it's greatest effect on man...Chapters about the 'hurricane hunter' type of airplane being flown into El-Nino enhanced storms off the Monterey, CA coast are amazing...also many of forerunners of modern El;-Nino understanding are championed in this book... Especially Sir Gilbert Walker whose studies crossed boundaries of science and were highly mis-understood for many years...these theories are now 'mainstays' of modern 'understanding of atmospheric 'circulations'! Mr. Wang has been a person who has written hundreds of treatises about El-Nino and other weather phenomena, idee has followed this information for over 40 years...There is never enough knowledge one can obtain to become 'complacent', especially in the scientific world...even 'experts' are fooled or follow 'false leads' at times... idee is sorry that he enjoys reading for his own pleasure and not just 'scientific' endeavor...(sarcasm emo) ...The study of the 'History' of any scientific field is the 'groundwork' that helps create 'new' knowledge and 'breakthroughs' in our understanding...data is just 'data'... #1 The bolded and colored (by idee) part of raindancewx's post is why idee has a distinct IMBY 'concern' about ENSO/El-Nino storms...#2 ...the ENSO/El-Nino phenomenon has not changed over time!...We have only gained more understanding with continued study...
  11. idecline

    Jan.30-Feb.3 West Coast Storm/ Tropical Influx?

    ...for forecast 'verification' and those who are 'comforted' by professional 'forecasts'...here is NWS San Jose, CA forecast... ...looks to be a real good series of 'storms'...look at all the sub-tropical moisture hoping to have it's say in this next couple of systems...(not to mention what is brewing far off to our west)...
  12. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...cool...it is a difficult subject and idee apologizes for his elipsis 'fascination'...the information idee wrote was off the 'top of his head' but basically is 'somewhat' correct...predicting ENSO 'events' for next year without having a clear picture of this years event seems a waste of time...'multi-year 'El-Nino' events are 'highly anomalous' in (modern times), and ENSO-'neutral' to 'LaNina" conditions are much more in conjunction with the 'normal' atmospheric circulation in these areas...yet some historical data implies that both extremes have sometimes been 'steady state' for decades at a time...this is not the case in today's present time with our Earth Temperatures being so high and the Ocean levels being at the current heights...one layman's book about ENSO/El-Nino events uses the metaphor of "Leviathan' or 'Moby Dick' the 'name of the allegorical novel' of man's pursuit to know the unknowable...the ENSO systemis so complex that even experts have barely seen the 'tale of the whale' much less seen it's body nor captured it...it is perhaps one of the most intriguing areas of study on this Earth highly recommended: if okay to do this...El Niño: Unlocking the Secrets of the Master Weather-Maker: J ... https://www.amazon.com/El-Niño-Unlocking-Secrets-Weather-Maker/dp/0446524816...very interesting and extremely well researched...idee
  13. idecline

    Jan.30-Feb.3 West Coast Storm/ Tropical Influx?

    Beautiful sunset last night with the clouds and much warmer overnight...high clouds are slowly filtering out the sun as we begin to see the intrusion of what will be a wet 4-5 day period...perhaps longer...the rb infrared from GOES West show the cloud band 'projecting' it's entrance of the next storm right along the Central California coast...SPC calls for minor instability along the coast late Wednesday night...https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...the 'second' wave to enter the West Coast region is beginning to look very formidable as upper air energy looks to collide with evident moisture (on rb IR) stream coming up from the sub-tropical regions...Fri/Sat event should see plentiful rain and snow in the Sierras, and high wind warnings and other storm effect warnings are very possible...look for Southern California to receive generous rainfall totals as the system lingers and edges to the SouthEast during the weekend... ...what a beautiful shot...plenty of moisture to enter the West very soon... ...yikes look at the low(s) in the GOA...(...and into the Bering Strait for the 'True Believers' of the BSR ) ...Californians like "Organic'... ...and for Saturday...quite a storm... if this 96hr: OPC map has any say so...992mb low just offshore...with plenty of upper air support bringing continued storminess into perhaps Monday...
  14. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...thanks for interpretation...Warning:...now comes idee rant #2 on WXDisco forums...sorry if this offends anyone...it is intended to encourage further study before one makes claims of such 'knowledge'... ...idee... here to understand, not to be an authority nor claim 'special 'knowledge'...just have read hundreds of books and treatises from scientists who are 'experts' in this field...
  15. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    Hey thanks to raindancewx for posting the latest update...a slight cooling of waters in the regions 1+2 are not unexpected...the underwater push of warmer waters contained in a Kelvin wave often have cooler waters that surface in the 'trailing' position of a wave... the presentation shows continued warmer waters in the sub-surface are progressing west to east towards the SA coast this next OKW should boost all regions again as it moves towards the coast...there are still plenty of warmer sub-surface waters to be seen... the ONI is only a 'hindsight' view of an El-Nino...to idee it appears we will have some influence from augmented storms from February into March in California...the teleconnective effects of an El-Nino may be less noticeable into other areas as this ENSO 'event' was late in starting and may not reach critical thresholds...yet, it still may impact California, the Desert SouthWest, and the lower plains into Spring...(in idee's best estimation)...the optimistic side is that SoCal will get much needed rainfall this winter into spring...rest of CONUS being greatly impacted by it's influence depends on continued warmth and a little bit of 'atmospheric coupling' to occur...hopefully this begins in the next few weeks after the next OKW arrives in South America... https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/ ...hopefully these graphs help explain the 'Left to right' motion of these sub-surface waters...and the 'heat' that is still heading to the Eastern Equatorial Pacific...
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