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idecline

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idecline last won the day on July 3

idecline had the most liked content!

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  1. ...IVO TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... 3:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 Location: 16.1°N 114.1°W Moving: WNW at 9 mph Min pressure: 996 mb Max sustained: 65 mph ...looks like Ivo is already deforming somewhat because of 'shear'...seems to a be bit lopsided in shape and is turning more to the WNW...likely to stay a TS or perhaps a minimal hurricane later this week, then dissipate rather quickly as it moves into cooler SST's...
  2. ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... 3:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 Location: 15.8°N 109.5°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 45 mph TS Ivo has formed to the S of Cabo San Lucas in Baja California...currently ~500 miles to the south of Baja...forecast to intensify for the next 72 hours and reach hurricane strength by Friday...then cooler SST's and wind shear should cause a fairly quick 'decline' over the Eastern Pacific waters...some residual moisture from this storm may enter the CONUS by the weekend... ...and...No this storm was not specifically named for Ivo Watts-Russell, founder of independent record label 4AD...some of my favorite bands of the 1980's were first discovered or recorded by 4AD...such as Dead Can Dance, Cocteau Twins, This Mortal Coil, and Clan of Xymox... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivo_Watts-Russell
  3. latest update from NCEP/CPC...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...near-neutral for time being...looks to be neither here nor there so far for this winter (La Nina nor El Nino)... .wait and see...it 'could get better'...
  4. Attention: for all of the 'historical' weather 'opinionists', the CPC/NCEP has issued the "Final" El Nino advisory for the "past" event...parameters continue to 'decline' in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean to a point that the 'Official' conditions are now near-neutral to neutral... this does not mean that conditions cannot segue into another 'phase'...yet the forecast is very vague...so neutral conditions may exist for some time as the continued upwelling of cooler waters in the far eastern Equatorial Pacific have Nino Regions 1+2 at -0.6C ...! the cooling has not yet reached Regions 3.4 and 4 as significantly as of now...so no forecast of a La Nina is imminent...trends will need to be carefully monitored to determine what a reasonable forecast for this fall into winter will be... The 'experts' at CPC/NCEP are going with about 50/50 chance of a neutral year this upcoming ENSO 'season'...yet the future 'plumes' are all over the map...knowing that we are in a 'recharging' phase of the oceanic heat content, this is likely for now... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
  5. All Members please excuse idee's "off - topic" ...'Nonsense' i.e. Glad to hear your story...was going to school to be Engineer or Math major in late '70's early 80's...also took UC Berkeley Honors Physics curriculum at junior college was attending in Gilroy, CA...decided that Nuclear power and all it's pitfalls was disgusting... wanted to become one of the first "solar" engineers to create free power for all, and to have all subdivisions have built in solar on rooftops...alas was way ahead of my time, only one school in US had any solar programs, and this was mostly EVR programs about 'passive solar'... also was still taking electives in all my other varied interests like Shakespeare, British Literature, Art, and also Existentialism...was at UCSB and also played a lot of volleyball...alas my varied interests and love of both right and left brain endeavor took its toll. did not return for final year after changing major to Math with perhaps a minor in Religious Studies...a comparative religion class 'sealed the deal' as it sent me "out into the world' rather than striving for 'success'... seeing J. Krishnamurti speak in Ojai in Spring of 1982...only confirmed the 'rightness' of my 'thought' at that time... that kind of 'sealed the deal'...no regrets...these sites at least give me some ability to utilize all of the knowledge gained from my schooling...am still a 'rebel without a cause' in this world of ravaging our natural environment, meaningless displays of wealth, and loss of any meaningful 'spiritual pursuits' (except for perhaps 'Mythological Beings')...
  6. ...this follows on the heels of tremendous ice loss in days previous... ...from tweet by climate Scientist Martin Stendel...all from article at...https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/greenland-lost-record-breaking-125-billion-tons-ice-single-day-180972808/ ...uh oh...
  7. Now....idee's "favorite" view of the ENSO/El Nino 'oscillation' (hmm) (is it an 'oscillation'?) ...Ta Da ...the TAO/Triton Array "bathtub" https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/ ...the 'bathtub' is now being 'eroded' in the far Eastern Pacific...and seems to be returning to so-called normal...where the water is shifted to the West, with much cooler SST's in the EPAC...this is because of the combination of trade winds and convectional 'centers'... ...one of which is located in the area in and around the Indonesian Archipelago...while others are situated in the Amazon jungle and Central African regions...this allows the somewhat more 'changeable' convection center in Indonesia to 'drift east' with proper conditions... ...this in turn 'creates what we know as "El Nino"... the bathtub shows the slow return of waters towards this center as trades 'scour' the water towards the west, and set the bathtub back up at it's 'precarious' so-called 'normal position'... ...again for the 'uninitiated'... this is the 'description' of what we are looking at above...(Warning: not everyone has the 'ability' to see what this wonderful view of the ENSO/El Nino 'pattern' has to offer...
  8. ...just wrote a (typically) way too long entry about El Nino...library computer logged off before it could be finished...renewed tropical activity is firing in the far western tropical Pacific basin... ...so on a note of new found 'brevity', idee will be short and sweet...new CPC/NCEP weekly diagnostic is in...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ...the El Nino of 2019 is hanging in the balance...trends say a continued slide into perhaps near neutral SST's if this continues to wane...La Nina is not as likely as some would think...a neutral year still implies strong trades along with warmer water building in the far WPAC ...SST's continue to fall in the far eastern tropical Pacific Ocean...while the numbers in Regions 4 and 3.4 are still at or above El Nino parameters...the influx of cooler waters from SA 'winter' circulations and rising subsurface cooler waters are taking their toll on the SST's The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 1.0ºC Niño 3.4 0.5ºC Niño 3 0.2ºC Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC
  9. OPC Pacific is 'onto' the renewed activity of the Tropical Region of the Far Western North Pacific region...as Typhoon Francisco crosses over Japan it may be a 'recurving' cyclone in the next few days...also Tropical storm Lekima is to it's SW...with another TD forming nearby ...here's OPC 48 hr surface map...will any of these 3 tropical systems effect the weather in the CONUS in the next several weeks...? ...idee will leave this to @ClicheVortex2014 and others who may/or may not have any ideas on this subject...right now California is cooling off as tropical moisture flows in from the remnants of Tropical system Gil... ..and look at the ITCZ 'ready for takeoff'...as tropical activity has renewed in the "Usual Suspects" areas of the far Western tropical Pacific...FWIW...
  10. ...now in Central Pacific...Flossie is moving up the Eastern side of Hawaiian Island chain as a remnant TD from her former vigorous activity... ...not much to follow now...just mildly disturbed weather on east facing shorelines...
  11. ...weakening...still will send waves and minor effects towards southern facing regions of Hawaiian Island chain...weakening expected to continue over next several days...Heavy rains expected over the Big Island, with large swells possible on SE facing beaches in the next few days.... Honolulu, HI https://www.weather.gov/hfo/ Hurricane Warning Tropical Storm Warning Flash Flood Watch Small Craft Advisory
  12. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/09/20192130000_GOES16-ABI-taw-09-1800x1080.jpg ...with HP looking very similar to the EPAC flattened out ridge...this Ivest 96L has a decent shot at 'riding the rails' of where steering winds are place for the time being...see OPC maps of lowr and upper air in next 48hrs...
  13. agreed...past events are 'historical'...they can be used as fodder for future 'events'...trends and 'patterns' do help somewhat...as far as long term 'oscillations' are concerned...these would be considered 'background' "noise"...in other words ...underlying 'oscillations' of long time scales are similar to the understanding of earthquakes and geologic events...the short term larger amplitude 'oscillations' can be modified by the ongoing 'background' 'waves'... sometimes augmenting the 'wave' (as in rouge ocean waves...etc) or often times giving a slight 'dampening' of the current 'oscillations'... as discussed before the theory of multiple 'oscillations' interacting is a very complicated area of study...(often requiring extensive research and extravagant mathematical derivations)... Remember that the PDO, NAO, ENSO etc. 'oscillations' are taken 'out of context' when we 'observe' them...whereas they are actually 'pieces' of a world-wide constantly 'evolving' atmospheric, oceanic, and geologic etc. 'outcomes' that we 'observe' ...they are only 'descriptions' of a piece of the whole, which ironically are 'driven by what is occurring the atmosphere 'right now', the 'residue' of yesterday(s) and the 'drivers' of that 'season's' weather patterns..such as ENSO, solar effects and so on the whole ball of wax is simple in it's 'connectedness', yet to study and predict it we must do the inferior method of 'dissection' into so-called 'working parts'...just as modern doctors 'specialize' in areas of medicine, yet 'Holistic' understanding often helps us to look at the whole and realize that the key to most deeper forms of 'understanding' often involve looking at the so-called "larger picture'... This has been mild rant # 275 from idee's addled mind and the catacombs of his 'right brain'... Back to subject...Arctic Sea Ice has been a long term 'signal' of evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions...especially in the more populated, polluted, and impacted by human 'endeavor' Northern Hemisphere... the South Pole is a land based polar region, and the Southern Hemisphere has a more moderate variation in interaction with climate and weather because of larger areas of 'heat sinks' (oceans and ice), therefore changes seem to be a much longer and slower 'time-scale'... IIAO...(In idee's addled opinion)... Heisenberg's 'Uncertainty Principle"...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle ...uh oh...a bunch of idee 'look at the bigger picture' diatribe again...
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