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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

idecline

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  1. idecline

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    ... ...idee for one last time on this thread...not my area of expertise...does idee spy an abrupt "Manhattan Transfer" showing up on the GEM...
  2. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...it is a bit much to directly blame 'El-Nino'...headline from SA... source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/el-nino-triggers-landslides-peru-tornado-argentina-181115092736681.html ...on the other hand unusually warm waters are also creeping north along the SA coast...which are not all that warm when it comes to El-Nino waters, yet they show that the South American Pacific Gyre (basically rotates counter-clockwise) is moving warmer than average water north...FWIW...source(OceanTracks.org) idee
  3. idecline

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    ...you are correct sir...idee posts OPC forecasts for California weather religiously...he is an avid map reader(of almost any kind)...idee (California native...BOO!) was just trying to steer the convo back to topic...
  4. idecline

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    idee says let's stop 'goofing' around...here is 96hr Atlantic OPC forcast...it shows the low moving right across the Blue Ridge Mountains to idee's non-EC knowledge...that would put Asheville, NC right on the button (if that Mike Beddes guy knows anything...jk)
  5. idecline

    Alaska Earthquake

    Unlike the San Andreas Fault in California...the Alaskan earthquake is along a 'subduction' fault..which has a tectonic plate sub-ducting under another plate..a kind of 're-cycling' of heavier older crust is subducted below to be heated and become fuel for the abundant volcanic activity that occurs in Alaska(and the 'Ring Of Fire' as the rim of the upper Pacific basin is AKA)...Alaska was hit with the second largest modern day earthquake on Mar. 27, 1964 an incredible 9.2 magnitude...a large earthquake of 7.9 mag hit in 2002... see story for more history on Alaskan Earthquake at...http://seismic.alaska.gov/earthquake_risk.html...this sit is not rated https so you might not wish to use a link...
  6. idecline

    December 5-7, 2018 | Storm

    Heavy showers came into the Santa Clara Valley late last night...lasting well into the wee hours...one quarter to one half inch of rain fell in most South Bay Area locations overnight...right now it is scattered clouds with a development coming in from Big Sur moving S to N Clearing should gradually develop N to S into Thursday with some residual showers as low pressure(now centered off Pt. Conception) slowly continues south and east...wraparound showers will effect the Bay Area overnight as a small vortice spins just to our north ... Southern California is hunkering down as the main rainfall bands have not yet reached their areas...especially noted is the Malibu Canyon areas up towards Thousand Oaks(fire-ravaged areas) as these areas have a large southern exposure and orographic augmentation of rainfall totals in these areas could make mud slides, debris flows and run-off issues a problem in the next two days...otherwise California has held up well during these first few storms in what could be the prelude to wet to very wet winter...esp. if El-Nino arrives in '19 ...more on the way next week?...see the 96hr OPC for hints...
  7. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...oh...the 'new' weeklies are in from CPC/NCEP ENSO page... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
  8. idecline

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    ...the 3...count them...the 3 items below show a 'graphical' representation from multiple angles and perspective of a building 'El-Nino'-like ocean basin... #1 shows warmer than average sub-surface waters being shuttled east by an OKW...which should 'break on the South American shores very soon...raising sea heights and temperatures in Region1+2...an 'under-water' side view of the basin #2 shows a time-related 'overhead view of the progression of the build-up of warmer waters in the necessary El-nino regions of equatorial Pacific... #3 shows the cati-corner view of the basin in a 3D type of graphic which shows 'sloshback' of the 'bathtub' waters towards the eastern basin after being 'piled high' by the 'La-Nina' conditions...then so-called 'neutral' conditions of the last couple of years in the 'basin' ...to idee's observation these are all 'obvious' trends towards what will be eventually 'statistically' remembered as an 'El-Nino' event in a few months from now in idee's estimation...remember the El-Nino-like conditions occur many months before hindsight gives us the ability to analyze and declare 'official' to an 'El-Nino' (likewise 'La-Nina') event... *John Cleese, Graham Chapman, Terry Gilliam, Eric Idle, Terry Jones and Michael Palin, Monty Python and the Holy Grail: The Screenplay, page 76, Methuen, 2003 (UK) ISBN 0-413-77394-9 ...as always...Thanks for listening...idee
  9. idecline

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    ...the 3...count them...the 3 items below show a 'graphical' representation from multiple angles and perspective of a building 'El-Nino'-like ocean basin... #1 shows warmer than average sub-surface waters being shuttled east by an OKW...which should 'break on the South American shores very soon...raising sea heights and temperatures in Region1+2...an 'under-water' side view of the basin #2 shows a time-related 'overhead view of the progression of the build-up of warmer waters in the necessary El-nino regions of equatorial Pacific... #3 shows the cati-corner view of the basin in a 3D type of graphic which shows 'sloshback' of the 'bathtub' waters towards the eastern basin after being 'piled high' by the 'La-Nina' conditions...then so-called 'neutral' conditions of the last couple of years in the 'basin' ...to idee's observation these are all 'obvious' trends towards what will be eventually 'statistically' remembered as an 'El-Nino' event in a few months from now in idee's estimation...remember the El-Nino-like conditions occur many months before hindsight gives us the ability to analyze and declare 'official' to an 'El-Nino' (likewise 'La-Nina') event... *John Cleese, Graham Chapman, Terry Gilliam, Eric Idle, Terry Jones and Michael Palin, Monty Python and the Holy Grail: The Screenplay, page 76, Methuen, 2003 (UK) ISBN 0-413-77394-9 ...as always...Thanks for listening...idee
  10. idecline

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Our late season warmth in California (Indian Summer (sic)) during November was a harbinger of things to come...in my anecdotal memory... in possible 'El-Nino' winters it often give a 'false signal' of winter...a rainy period...then apparent 'pattern flip'...this often coincides with Christmas time which is the prototypical time of when OKW 'break' upon the shores of the equatorial coast of South America...which is often the beginning of the 'filling in' of the warm waters that represent an El-Nino...the Kelvin waves are guided across the 'bathtub' of the equatorial Pacific and start an immediate synchronous 'coupling' of the atmospheric conditions to the continued transference of warm waters from the western basin to the eastern basin...a drop in the thermocline which prevents cooling of the coastal waters...therefore allowing the moisture rich waters to create a convection 'beltway' that pumps moisture into storm systems that can tap the warm waters that have reached a 'critical' heat content...this is usually the beginning of storms that can be 'possibly' being later analyzed as being "El-Nino enhanced"...in idee's unreliable memory cells this occurs in California in January into February...although each 'event' is unique and cannot be 'dissected' as it is occurring...nor can it be divulged by studying so-called 'analogs'... ...the above is again only an idee 'rant' and is not based on any specific formula, analog, nor future 'graphic'...it is mostly based on 'observation' of what is happening right now... and the knowledge that 'El-Nino'/'La-Nina'/ENSO is only a 'description' of a factually occurring atmospheric 'oscillation' that is 'driven' by changing ocean conditions that happen when multiple systems interact...the leading part of an OKW 'breaks' upon the shores transferring the warm water brought east along the shores...eventually the system reverts to it's normal (which is unequal) and sends the water west with help from the nearly constant easterly 'trade' winds back to the convective centers near Indonesia...this builds the water level back up in the western basin as convection creates a rise in water heights... ...and RobB's graphic plus the above post by Poconosnow show the 'temporary' (hopefully) change in the atmospheric 'pattern' beginning to unfold...
  11. idecline

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    ...still feel that the ramping up 'El-Nino' like pattern will be a large driver of CONUS weather this year...maps from CPC show wetter than normal in California and southern plains which are evident of sub-tropical jet activity into the winter...cold bubble over Utah is a signature of storms entering the West then with the 'amplified' jet stream sending them either on a more southerly track or up and over the 'bubble' of cold in the Rockies...this would explain the prec. and .temp. maps ... in idee's best 'interpretation'
  12. Another storm is just offshore of the California Coast...beautiful 'baroclinic leaf' motif rminds us that the leaves are changing and 'falling' quickly now as winter approaches...the high winds and heavy rains(and Sierra snowfall) give hope of a wet winter and abundant replenishment of snowpack in the Sierras, as well as ground water and reservoir storage of much needed runoff from these 'early' season storms(Oct.-Mar. is California's main 'rainy season')...light to moderate rain should last until Thu. with more snows in Sierras...parent low in GOA queuing up more
  13. idecline

    December 5-7, 2018 | Storm

    ...more wet weather moving into the West Coast...the Bay Area is already clouding up as the next system approaches from the west...light rainfall expected in the Bay Area with light snows in the Sierras...great to see early season snows build our watershed and snowpacks in water challenged California...large storm in the Aleutians will send several 'fronts' towards the west after this first 'wave' moves through...beautiful 'baroclinic leaf' profile (as noted in NWS outlook) to the wonderful satellite views...
  14. ...Heavy precipitation is expected near northern California over the next few days with significant snowfall in the Sierra-Nevada into Friday morning... A series of storm systems will bring the threat for heavy rainfall over recent wildfire burn scar regions in California over the next couple of days. Excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding, mud slides, rock, and debris flows. The potential exists for heavy snowfall, strong winds, and dangerous travel.
  15. idecline

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    West Coast finally 'goes green'! ...and non-official 'El-Nino' enhanced rains are on the way...Yiipii says the WiiNii's of the West...for we are the "Knights Who Say "WiiNii" "...
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