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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Psu1313

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About Psu1313

  • Birthday September 25

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  • Locale
    Cranberry Township, PA

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  • Interests
    Soccer, College Football, DMB, the beach, skiing, bourbon
  • Perfect Day
    soccer followed by an awesome storm

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  1. Ok, so we're looking more toward the end of this time period and the clipper diving in and trying to merge. Got it. So it's more the 1/2/3 storm (Groundhog's Day blizzard anyone?) vs something tied in with the storm that comes through the 28th/29th/30th.
  2. Reading that clown map verbatim, that is for January 23-January 31. I continue to review the time period and I'm still a bit confused which storm is going to fit here. (I meant to post clips last night but I'm on work travel and was exhausted). Currently for this time period, the GFS-FV3 has a clipper merging with another system, the GFS has a storm prior and a storm on the 2nd, the CMC has a weak storm but looks like it's setting up a bigger storm and I can't see in between frames on the Euro so I'm not sure what it's doing with 24 hour increments. This is like whack-a-mole. So what do we know for sure? Storm one comes through over the next 2 days and brings mainly rain but some backend snow for Pittsburgh and other areas as well as some LES. Storm 2 looks week and rolls in around the 27th and it's basically a ripple in the pattern working with some cold air. That is where I'm getting confused. Storm one has a thread, storm 2 I don't believe has a thread and storm 3 I thought was the 27th-29th. Now we definitely have a storm there, it looks warmer rather than white but that one rolls into the time period of this thread. Are we looking for redevelopment potential or are we thinking it's a wave like the FV3 sort of has?I do believe there is something on the 1st/2nd/3rd that bears watching and then a potential warm up might be in the cards based on the CFS, ensembles, the MJO, and looking at Asia. Anyways, that last part is more for the LR thread than it is for this but what I'm getting at is, which storm should I be looking at here? In a pattern like this with so much energy ripping through, it makes it tough on threads due our own limitations when in reality, the weather is still going to happen.
  3. It's not a negative post. I'm just stating that this might be rolled up into another one and doesn't actually form. It's hard to say based on the evolution of the flow as to if this is an actual threat. For example, the GFS shows a clipper at 12z or are we talking about the prior storm in this thread. I'm not trying to shut this topic down but rather exclaiming that there is so much going on and the evolution on whether this is real and if so, what this will look like is a bit unknown. When I'm not at work later I'll post some slides to show you what I'm thinking.
  4. I have to say the evolution of the pattern for each model is so seemingly stark that it's hard to get a handle if this is a real thing or not. If it is something, I'd bet on a quick mover based on what we've seen so far this winter. Based on current tellies, it doesn't look like much of a block is setting up though it does look like AO is going to fluctuate negative so that can be an onus for cold being around.
  5. Psu1313

    Notice to the Community

    10/4!
  6. Psu1313

    Notice to the Community

    I’m not exactly positive as to what happened overall, but to wipe the slate truly clean I would recommend an allotted time period over which the points are rescinded. Otherwise, the “Clean Slate” (shout-out Dark Knight) isn’t truly that. Just a recommendation.
  7. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Started the day at 7 springs and the snow started around 1. Once we got off the mountain it changed over to rain. Back in Cranberry we made it to 36 and have dropped to 34. I haven’t looked at the upper levels yet but that’s where we stand here.
  8. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I'm drinking Three Philosophers by Ommegang. I think it makes me smarter, that 9%ABV and all. Here's the current METAR map so everyone can see where snow is hitting the ground. https://aviationweather.gov/metar They make it easy because the red blips mean precip. There's a lot of great information in them including wind direction, visibility, and precip. If anyone is interested I'll post the chart. As mentioned in a previous email, South Bend, IN is the furthest east station reporting precip. METAR: KSBN 190107Z 05007KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC022 M03/M05 A3015 RMK AO2 P0001 T10331050
  9. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Doc...is there a prescription for this or do you just need to talk it out? Asking for a friend of course!
  10. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    It's pretty simple now, all you have to do is look up. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-106.64,39.93,1168/loc=-50.579,34.923 Look at the flow in the upper levels. It's all the same. It won't be due west to east but close enough. There's no phase that you need, no watching for a hookup, it's letting her run and hoping that 1) the cold air holds and 2) the storm is in the right position. Let's quickly break down the 500's vs what you see in the link above. The dig looks a bit deeper further west than it was supposed to be based on looking at the overall suite due to the fact that we're diving over the Rio Grande already. Snow is a bit out in front as it's snowing in South Bend based on their METAR but the field looks a bit less robust west. Overall, not major differences between the NAM but some small noticeable ones.
  11. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    So from my observation, our snow stopped early this morning and it warmed up nicely afterwards only to have the cold northerly wind come in. We actually dropped a degree here in the middle of the day. Page Topper: You don't need a parachute to go skydiving. You need a parachute to go skydiving twice.
  12. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I absolutely 3rd this. The number one rule of forecasting was don't show your cards too early and number two was shoot low and then raise if warranted. Now, for many, if you're not shooting high you don't know what you're doing. Then, when you bust because you went high like they wanted, you don't know what you're doing. Really tough position for on-air meteorologists to be in.
  13. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Setting the stage for tomorrow, we got up to 35 degrees this morning and then the breeze from the north came in and we've dropped a degree in the last hour. I was out in long sleeves in the AM and shivering in a hoodie in the afternoon...makes me long to move back to DC.
  14. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    That map makes sense. An area of very high snowfall totals just north of the ice accumulations. That's what we should expect.
  15. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I'm just going to add this water vapor link to the fray. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html If you look toward Texas and into the gulf, the moisture is gurgling and ready to move. The only thing that is going to keep qpf down is the speed of the system.
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