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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Psu1313

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Everything posted by Psu1313

  1. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Started the day at 7 springs and the snow started around 1. Once we got off the mountain it changed over to rain. Back in Cranberry we made it to 36 and have dropped to 34. I haven’t looked at the upper levels yet but that’s where we stand here.
  2. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I'm drinking Three Philosophers by Ommegang. I think it makes me smarter, that 9%ABV and all. Here's the current METAR map so everyone can see where snow is hitting the ground. https://aviationweather.gov/metar They make it easy because the red blips mean precip. There's a lot of great information in them including wind direction, visibility, and precip. If anyone is interested I'll post the chart. As mentioned in a previous email, South Bend, IN is the furthest east station reporting precip. METAR: KSBN 190107Z 05007KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC022 M03/M05 A3015 RMK AO2 P0001 T10331050
  3. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Doc...is there a prescription for this or do you just need to talk it out? Asking for a friend of course!
  4. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    It's pretty simple now, all you have to do is look up. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-106.64,39.93,1168/loc=-50.579,34.923 Look at the flow in the upper levels. It's all the same. It won't be due west to east but close enough. There's no phase that you need, no watching for a hookup, it's letting her run and hoping that 1) the cold air holds and 2) the storm is in the right position. Let's quickly break down the 500's vs what you see in the link above. The dig looks a bit deeper further west than it was supposed to be based on looking at the overall suite due to the fact that we're diving over the Rio Grande already. Snow is a bit out in front as it's snowing in South Bend based on their METAR but the field looks a bit less robust west. Overall, not major differences between the NAM but some small noticeable ones.
  5. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    So from my observation, our snow stopped early this morning and it warmed up nicely afterwards only to have the cold northerly wind come in. We actually dropped a degree here in the middle of the day. Page Topper: You don't need a parachute to go skydiving. You need a parachute to go skydiving twice.
  6. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I absolutely 3rd this. The number one rule of forecasting was don't show your cards too early and number two was shoot low and then raise if warranted. Now, for many, if you're not shooting high you don't know what you're doing. Then, when you bust because you went high like they wanted, you don't know what you're doing. Really tough position for on-air meteorologists to be in.
  7. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Setting the stage for tomorrow, we got up to 35 degrees this morning and then the breeze from the north came in and we've dropped a degree in the last hour. I was out in long sleeves in the AM and shivering in a hoodie in the afternoon...makes me long to move back to DC.
  8. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    That map makes sense. An area of very high snowfall totals just north of the ice accumulations. That's what we should expect.
  9. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I'm just going to add this water vapor link to the fray. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html If you look toward Texas and into the gulf, the moisture is gurgling and ready to move. The only thing that is going to keep qpf down is the speed of the system.
  10. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    That's mainly because a few of the members that had showed really high numbers dropped down some. Not too much of a change in the look overall.
  11. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    It should. I was going to state this last night and had a post all ready but then fell asleep. All the players are now on the field and our first system is getting out of the way. You're looking at subtle differences for the most part but we're nearing the endgame. A nice swatch of 8-16" from Pittsburgh up through NEPA and then 12-20" into NY and New England with lollipops. Fringes all depend on where you are and how long you hold on. Where it changes over, it's going to rain (freezing or otherwise) and sleet hard. Edit: I still think South Pittsburgh changes over for a time and the further south, the more changeover you get.
  12. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    The numbers are going to be insane when this run ends. The precip field is more robust and well obviously the other changes as mentioned.
  13. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    You beat me to it. The surface and 500 differences are stark.
  14. Psu1313

    January 17-18, 2019 Winter Storm

    2nd batch comes in and 15 min. later we have a dusting on the sidewalks and grass. It's very fine, like sugar granules but making things pretty again.
  15. Psu1313

    January 17-18, 2019 Winter Storm

    Weak sauce here. Very light snow fell for a short time and now we're overcast. I'm hoping the next batch lays down that inch. ;)
  16. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Simply put, it's the precip shield. When it does precipitate, it comes down hard but the shield isn't all that big. Compare it to the GFS, ICON, Euro, etc... and it's a tiny shield. Looking at the PWAT's I assume this will correct itself in the next few runs.
  17. Psu1313

    January 17-18, 2019 Winter Storm

    Snow starting to reach in to Pittsburgh. It's nice to be able to do obs in the same thread. It's actually a balmy 32 degrees with a DP of 30. Snow should start in about an hour.
  18. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I replied and then saw all the other comments and quickly deleted it. Wasn't trying to escalate and was definitely not going at him with that one.
  19. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Observing and analyzing are different than going off the handle when the a model doesn't "go your way." There are times where I feel that some would sacrifice their first born child for a snow storm. Then again, there are probably one or two that actually would!
  20. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    No doubt. The question is how long do you hold on to snow before a changeover. Pittsburgh is pretty vulnerable to WAA from what I'm learning in talking to folks and studying the geography. That creates a bit of an issue.
  21. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Very much so. The problem is the region will be the battleground. You might see a scenario where the North Hills get 10 inches and south Pittsburgh gets 4. It's going to be a delicate balance but I'd say we'll have a better idea tomorrow morning and yet, it still might come down to obs.
  22. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I can definitively say, without any hesitation or a shadow of a doubt that we will not have something that looks like a Miller A come out of this storm. This is not a system built that way. Think of the gradient as the Maginot line in France because it's extremely permeable. Your storm is going to find the gradient because that battle between cold and warm is what feeds the system. The system will then pull up warm moist air from the south. Now you have your gradient. Depending on the strength of the system, it will determine how much warm air gets pulled up. The other piece is the depth of the cold air. How entrenched is it? Does it retreat? You start firing warm moist air over the top and boom snow. You start warming up certain layers but not the ground and you get freezing or you could get sleet depending on the depth. Here is the setup from the GFS. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/01/19/0900Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-86.32,37.94,2084/loc=-165.000,-29.768 Look toward Arkansas and see the steering currents filtering east toward the Mid-Atlantic. That's where it will go. Now let's look ahead at the surface. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/01/19/0900Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-89.36,41.63,2437/loc=-165.000,-29.768 Look at where the surface winds are flowing from. VERY important. Figure out where the cold is being reinforced and where the overrunning is trying to push out the cold. Look to the NE, there is a high there trying to reinforce the cold out in front. The problem is though, if that center of circulation comes into PA you better have one hell of a wedge to lock in the cold. Unfortunately, that's not the case. The REALLY cold air is behind the system and look at that cold filtering down from the Hudson Bay. Your low will not be in South Carolina. It makes no sense with this setup. Thus, that outcome has sailed. This isn't a complex system with a ton of play. It's actually very straightforward so you just need to hone details. Does that mean a low bust potential? Absolutely not. There's wiggle room and enough to drive many people nuts. PARD might lose 10 years of his life on this storm and he's going to get 8 inches of snow at the low end.
  23. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    That ship sailed. I think there's a good chance it happens over the next few weeks, but this isn't the one. Page topper! Boom! If you click alt and f4 at the same time when looking at a snow map, you can make changes to the map.
  24. Psu1313

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Finally getting a look at the Ukie and I would argue you're wrong NWScott assuming you were basing it on the 00z. It looks a bit further north and a touch weaker. The image I'm posting is from 00z hour 72. Edit: the north is for debate a bit but definitely slightly quicker.
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