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Everything posted by Psu1313

  1. It's gorgeous here but cool. (56 degrees) Yesterday's high was supposedly 68 but I never saw higher than 64. I don't know, it felt more like early April than June though maybe I'm used to DC weather?
  2. Drove by your locale last week, heard dueling banjos, drove faster. It's amazing what happens when you get 3-4 days of dry weather and you're able to actually walk in your yard. Lucky for us, Wednesday night/Thursday will snap this dryness.
  3. Looks at NW PA and Ohio....INCOMING!! Ahoff, if I have a moment to pull the pictures down from my mother-in-law, I'll post what Zelienople looked like last night. We're in Cranberry and got off a tad easier than those just to the north of us based on my family's comments.
  4. I'm in DC and my wife was telling me that it was insane where we are at. The house lost power and we're in the 3-4 inches of rain area as the storms trained over the house.
  5. I was on the road when it came in. 30-40 mph winds and a heavy downpour but as you guessed, 15ish minutes. Skies are still overcast and I agree with you on the synopsis that it doesn't see overly unstable at this point and looking at the satellite, there's a lot cloudiness in the near future. That line came in much earlier than I expected (I was thinking noon-4pm last night). We did get a nice T-storm around 12:30am last night that shook the house.
  6. Rain passed through north of Pittsburgh. Heavy squall but no lightning or thunder. We'll have to see how the atmosphere recovers to see if there will be some afternoon fireworks or if this threat turns into a nothing burger.
  7. Back door cold fronts are the bane of my existence and this is coming from someone who grew up in Wilkes-Barre and migrated to DC. Living through that crush of what looks to be a warm day turn cold only because of a backdoor cold front is infuriating so I can only imagine what it must be like to live up there and have a late retracting jet stream or multiple days of temps below what's to be expected. With that said, it seems that MJ is down for all the cold weather he can get so maybe they enjoy it, those hearty folk?
  8. You have a hypothesis and that's a good thing. The question is, is that climate change or is it just current cycle. I'm not claiming that's not the case, I'm pointing to the fact that it's too small a sample size to be sure. It's all connected, there's zero debate about that. There are a lot of questions to be answered though around the situation and without more data and to be honest time, it's taking a bit of a shot in the dark. Remember, climate change models are very similar to the models we look at every day. They're based on algorithms of what we know and then have assumptions built in. There is a modicum of bias in every model so we always need to be on the lookout for that. Another point to make to the board that's really important is that each persons perception is their own reality. One can have a warmer than normal season but if it's bookended by really cold shots and maybe another 1 or 2 in the middle, it very well can feel below normal and/or long. Looking at the ensembles (thank you weather boy), where is the source of the really cold air coming from? Hint: don't take too long on this, you're not going to find one
  9. I was being a bit flip so my apologies. It was just the first set of maps that I looked at this morning and it was showing my point. I don't put too much stock in one model and I sure as heck don't put much stock in anything 10-15 days out. The whole crux of the -NAO argument is that the monster storm that just passed is going to start to gum up the works and then the next one really solidifies a -NAO. I'm also concerned for Cliche that we're not going to have a great severe season for him. Without that arctic clash with the very warm, moist air, it's hard to get awesome. We'll still see a bunch and probably one or two really good outbreaks, but it looks quiet overall for now though there are some real hints toward the 13th and a storm ejecting out of the SW.
  10. I'm not buying into it being a trend. These types of things happen where you'll get multiple years on end of cooler than normal and then it will switch. Who would have thought the great pacific blob would go away and California would get rain ever again. (That's for dramatic effect). I'm absolutely not buying the -NAO setting up. It will dip into neutral 1 to -1 but beyond that, we've seen this before this year where the models show it but then real life happens. In addition, the tellies are becoming less important as we transition through spring. If on queue, I'm just looking at the model runs now as I types this, the 6z GFS backs off the -NAO pattern. Starting off April, we're slightly below normal with yesterday being 1 degree above. We'll be above normal the next two days due to nighttime temps and then the weekend will take us above normal overall. I'm not seeing any major arctic fronts moving forward this month but in agreement with some others, I'm only seeing short term spikes so a near to slightly above average April is my call for SWPA.
  11. I keep coming back to the fact that Michigan is in a tough area. It's very hard to see regularly above normal temps in the spring in this environment. Just a few hundred miles to your SE, Pittsburgh will finish March below average, but only because the first 8 days of March were so brutally below average. It's been a roller coaster since March 9th but it will come out to slightly above average. Further SE toward DC, again very similar but above average since March 9th including 4 70 degree days. (average runs from 51-61 in March). This tells me that the SE ridge is making it's presence known and in my view, will continue to slowly assert itself more as spring continues. This might not be a great thing for Michigan because you're on that edge of warm and cold air and which means wet and gray for the next week until I believe you get some pleasant weather next weekend (hopefully sans rain).
  12. Agreed but I think it's wrong in regards to Sunday. It all depends on how fast the front moves through. The next chance is Thursday/Friday and it definitely mentions the possibility for Thursday evening. It's been kinda dry in Cranberry for the last 2ish weeks overall outside of the one deluge/snowsqualls.
  13. I mentioned this a few weeks ago in that Michigan is tough. Just a couple hundred miles to your SE, since March 8th, Cranberry, PA has seen 6 (today will be 7) days above normal and 5 below normal. It's a couple things. The jet stream is slowly retreating but Michigan is in a tough spot just far enough north where you're caught in the battleground. You also have ice cover on the lakes and snow cover just to your north so there is nothing to moderate the cold with the exception of the ever growing sun angle. Spring is a roller coaster. Spring is here and as I'm seeing by looking at Detroit's temps for the last 2 weeks, since that cold snap, it's right around normal overall (46high, 30 low currently)
  14. I'm still seeing it playing out like this: Week 1 - through Friday 3/15 - Average temps early in the week give way to above average temps and Spring Fever by Wednesday. Not really a long range forecast any more and more reality. Week 2, March 16-23 - mostly below average with daytime highs of 5-10 degrees below normal. By the 23rd the warmer air stars to reset and take hold which leads to an above average week 3. I thought the colder weather wouldn't take hold for as long in week 2 as I believed it would be 3-4 days and not the entire week. After that though, I don't see a ton of cold in the overall system which, as mentioned by other posters, should lead to a warm April as well.
  15. Just wait til this weekend through Friday. Too bad it will be accompanied by rain. It should be near 60 at least twice (Sunday and Thursday) with the other days at or above average (average is 45 for the high). The 18th-21st is probably back below average before the SER returns and warms the East up again.
  16. Yesterday stung the face. It was one of those cold windy, late winter days where you had some squalls but no real payoff. This is the time of year where if it's going to be cold, it needs to snow and if not, let it be warm. All of the ensembles are seeing a brief (3-4 days) cooldown somewhere in the area of March 17th which coincides nicely with an open thread and it also makes a lot of sense looking at Asia. It's going to be a bit of a roller coaster to get to full warmth but I stand by what I said yesterday that after the 10th, the east will be above average for the rest of the month.
  17. I don't disagree but that was mainly a storm for above the Mason Dixon line. There will be a ton of moisture running around (as it has been all winter) and all it needs is just the right timing. The pattern though speaks to that warmth and moisture pushing from the southwest and not from the due south so you almost need a miller b situation which are tough to begin with in DC on south due to changeovers and the like and become even less likely to deliver as March wears on and turns to April. P.S.....gotta mention sun angle because well...gotta do it
  18. I think people are focusing a little too much on the operationals. I'm still looking at around the 10th to be the change back to what we saw before this cold snap. You're going to have ups and downs in spring but overall the cold should revert west with pacific air infiltrating the nation with a moderately strong SER. I'm still concerned about the upper midwest in the warming trend (sorry Al, Michigan is just geographically tough), but anywhere in the southeast it should be pretty much game on for spring after this current cold leaves. Battle lines will probably be drawn on the west side of the apps and across the Mason Dixon line though I expect New England (outside of Maine) to be above average for the month after March 10. I'll use DC as my example. After this cold spell, I don't see DC getting below freezing for more than 6 hours at one time the rest of the winter. They could still see a freak snow but it's going to be hard to accumulate.
  19. I'm looking at somewhere around the 10th for the EC. Part of it is due to the way the flow has been returning (West coast trough) combined with the jet stream starting to lift north due to seasonality. If I'm in the midwest though, you're looking at later in the month if not into early April to get spring going. Michigan is tough to forecast but I'd lean toward cool with brief warm shots through March.
  20. Have I told you how excited I am to be buried in digital snow? The digital snowmen I'm building are epic! With that said, this one is interesting. The first storm cuts through around the 24th with a lot of warm air. Then there should be a storm forming with the southern energy and there might be cold air to play with to its north. This could be anything though from a southern slider to a cutter.
  21. I'm seeing that too but not buying. My best guess at this point is that a big cold front ushers in serious cold, we get 3 days or so of it and then it moderates and we lose the real cold again. Very similar to the beginning of February. That is barring that typhoon in the Pacific getting closer to Japan and doing a recurve. That would spell trouble as it might upset the overall apple cart. There's just too much ridging over asia and Japan to think this is sustained. The other change that's being somewhat modeled in the long range is lower heights over Alaska.
  22. That SER is becoming more pronounced and when this happens in early spring it can be held back for periods but it's going to win overall barring something major changing that beats it down. Spring fever is going to hit the southern mid-atlantic between Feb19-24 then we'll see what happens. As of now, we might beat down the southern ridge the end of Feb into early March and maybe something can spawn. I'm not overly hopeful though. The things I am confident of: 1) Valentine's Day is overrated 2) Winter in the southeast is about over 3) It's going to be darn cold for a while in the upper midwest from Glacier National Park to Minnesota 4) The drought in the West is going to be almost gone
  23. I'd say no words but actually I do have something to say. The reason meteorologists try to look further out is to get better. It's like anything you do, if you don't push the envelope you never get better. As far as these boards, identifying patterns and potential is really something that folks can learn. Yes, you need to walk in eyes wide open that things can and will change, but I prefer looking at the big picture rather than sitting in my basement past casting. This storm is warm which isn't all that shocking and that was identified by a number of folks early on. Great job to those that did.
  24. I fell back to sleep. It's cold and its snowing. It was 4 when I hit the hay and if its anywhere close to that the fluff factor will be high. We are up to....17. We rose 13 degrees overnight. Wow
  25. Just waking up at snowshoe,wv. Will give a hungover update in a bit.
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