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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Psu1313

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Everything posted by Psu1313

  1. Psu1313

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    I mentioned this a few weeks ago in that Michigan is tough. Just a couple hundred miles to your SE, since March 8th, Cranberry, PA has seen 6 (today will be 7) days above normal and 5 below normal. It's a couple things. The jet stream is slowly retreating but Michigan is in a tough spot just far enough north where you're caught in the battleground. You also have ice cover on the lakes and snow cover just to your north so there is nothing to moderate the cold with the exception of the ever growing sun angle. Spring is a roller coaster. Spring is here and as I'm seeing by looking at Detroit's temps for the last 2 weeks, since that cold snap, it's right around normal overall (46high, 30 low currently)
  2. Psu1313

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    I'm still seeing it playing out like this: Week 1 - through Friday 3/15 - Average temps early in the week give way to above average temps and Spring Fever by Wednesday. Not really a long range forecast any more and more reality. Week 2, March 16-23 - mostly below average with daytime highs of 5-10 degrees below normal. By the 23rd the warmer air stars to reset and take hold which leads to an above average week 3. I thought the colder weather wouldn't take hold for as long in week 2 as I believed it would be 3-4 days and not the entire week. After that though, I don't see a ton of cold in the overall system which, as mentioned by other posters, should lead to a warm April as well.
  3. Psu1313

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Just wait til this weekend through Friday. Too bad it will be accompanied by rain. It should be near 60 at least twice (Sunday and Thursday) with the other days at or above average (average is 45 for the high). The 18th-21st is probably back below average before the SER returns and warms the East up again.
  4. Psu1313

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Yesterday stung the face. It was one of those cold windy, late winter days where you had some squalls but no real payoff. This is the time of year where if it's going to be cold, it needs to snow and if not, let it be warm. All of the ensembles are seeing a brief (3-4 days) cooldown somewhere in the area of March 17th which coincides nicely with an open thread and it also makes a lot of sense looking at Asia. It's going to be a bit of a roller coaster to get to full warmth but I stand by what I said yesterday that after the 10th, the east will be above average for the rest of the month.
  5. Psu1313

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    I don't disagree but that was mainly a storm for above the Mason Dixon line. There will be a ton of moisture running around (as it has been all winter) and all it needs is just the right timing. The pattern though speaks to that warmth and moisture pushing from the southwest and not from the due south so you almost need a miller b situation which are tough to begin with in DC on south due to changeovers and the like and become even less likely to deliver as March wears on and turns to April. P.S.....gotta mention sun angle because well...gotta do it
  6. Psu1313

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    I think people are focusing a little too much on the operationals. I'm still looking at around the 10th to be the change back to what we saw before this cold snap. You're going to have ups and downs in spring but overall the cold should revert west with pacific air infiltrating the nation with a moderately strong SER. I'm still concerned about the upper midwest in the warming trend (sorry Al, Michigan is just geographically tough), but anywhere in the southeast it should be pretty much game on for spring after this current cold leaves. Battle lines will probably be drawn on the west side of the apps and across the Mason Dixon line though I expect New England (outside of Maine) to be above average for the month after March 10. I'll use DC as my example. After this cold spell, I don't see DC getting below freezing for more than 6 hours at one time the rest of the winter. They could still see a freak snow but it's going to be hard to accumulate.
  7. Psu1313

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I'm looking at somewhere around the 10th for the EC. Part of it is due to the way the flow has been returning (West coast trough) combined with the jet stream starting to lift north due to seasonality. If I'm in the midwest though, you're looking at later in the month if not into early April to get spring going. Michigan is tough to forecast but I'd lean toward cool with brief warm shots through March.
  8. Psu1313

    February 27-28, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Have I told you how excited I am to be buried in digital snow? The digital snowmen I'm building are epic! With that said, this one is interesting. The first storm cuts through around the 24th with a lot of warm air. Then there should be a storm forming with the southern energy and there might be cold air to play with to its north. This could be anything though from a southern slider to a cutter.
  9. Psu1313

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I'm seeing that too but not buying. My best guess at this point is that a big cold front ushers in serious cold, we get 3 days or so of it and then it moderates and we lose the real cold again. Very similar to the beginning of February. That is barring that typhoon in the Pacific getting closer to Japan and doing a recurve. That would spell trouble as it might upset the overall apple cart. There's just too much ridging over asia and Japan to think this is sustained. The other change that's being somewhat modeled in the long range is lower heights over Alaska.
  10. Psu1313

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    That SER is becoming more pronounced and when this happens in early spring it can be held back for periods but it's going to win overall barring something major changing that beats it down. Spring fever is going to hit the southern mid-atlantic between Feb19-24 then we'll see what happens. As of now, we might beat down the southern ridge the end of Feb into early March and maybe something can spawn. I'm not overly hopeful though. The things I am confident of: 1) Valentine's Day is overrated 2) Winter in the southeast is about over 3) It's going to be darn cold for a while in the upper midwest from Glacier National Park to Minnesota 4) The drought in the West is going to be almost gone
  11. I'd say no words but actually I do have something to say. The reason meteorologists try to look further out is to get better. It's like anything you do, if you don't push the envelope you never get better. As far as these boards, identifying patterns and potential is really something that folks can learn. Yes, you need to walk in eyes wide open that things can and will change, but I prefer looking at the big picture rather than sitting in my basement past casting. This storm is warm which isn't all that shocking and that was identified by a number of folks early on. Great job to those that did.
  12. Psu1313

    February 1-2, 2019 | Snow Event

    I fell back to sleep. It's cold and its snowing. It was 4 when I hit the hay and if its anywhere close to that the fluff factor will be high. We are up to....17. We rose 13 degrees overnight. Wow
  13. Psu1313

    February 1-2, 2019 | Snow Event

    Just waking up at snowshoe,wv. Will give a hungover update in a bit.
  14. Isn't the sky a ridiculously beautiful blue. Not a single cloud in sight. It's going to be real easy to lose even more heat when the sun goes down. We're down to -2 in Cranberry but the wind has died off some (down to 18mph) causing the wind chill to only by -25. I can honestly say that I've never seen a -19 DP in a place where I lived. The all-time low around Pittsburgh is like -22 or -24 so that's safe but -8 to -10 is definitely a real possibility.
  15. It hurts to be outside. I'm trying to walk my husky puppy who thinks a -23 wind chill is fine and that he should dive into the snow and roll around. Meanwhile, I'm wearing my ski clothes and anything that's exposed stings. I can't imagine what Chicago and Minneapolis are like. It's still above 0 here so we have that going for us (1 degree..1 lousy degree). This is not a ninja but rather the only part of me that is exposed to the wind. Maybe I should break out the ski goggles....
  16. After this event, we're going to be looking at how we can cool the stratosphere as it happens. For those of you in eastern pa. I thought it was cold last night but the true arctic front has now passed through. It dropped 1-2 inches on our driveway (hard to measure as it's blowing so hard) and now the winds are 50 mph and the temp has dropped to 3 degrees. It makes last night feel downright hot. It's a virtual ground blizzard here. Edit: To be clear, it's gusting to 50 and not sustained. Want to make sure that I make that clear.
  17. Psu1313

    February 1-2, 2019 | Snow Event

    The WV ridge tops and maybe MDBR's neighborhood should make out well with this storm. Energy and a little bit of moisture with really cold temps equal a nice fluffy snow.
  18. My husky pup and I will brave it but as for actually liking it, nope. We're supposed to be one of the areas that goes from Rain to well..ya. Just doing a quick check of the thermometer, we're at 8 degrees this morning. So quick warm up today to about 35 (official forecast is 38 but I don't see us getting there) and then into the icebox overnight. We just had that major event that turned into a flash freeze and underneath 3 inches of snow was a solid layer of ice. I was able to do something with it because the sun came out and it was at least near 20. On top of that, the winds are going to absolutely sting the face so if you have a ski mask, you might want to think about wearing it.
  19. Admittedly, I was liking the 4th-11th for a warm up. I wasn't sure if it was going to come before the storm (I.e. storm pushing through the Midwest) or if this storm would push through and then we'd get a zonal pattern. I'm still not sold that this one pushes through the Midwest but it's looking more and more likely as the PV is going to push out and leave a void. If we don't get it here, watch for what comes at the end of the "warmer weather" as we may have a reset. We also have to watch for ice in this situation because even though it's "stale," it may not want to pull out all that fast or the WAA might not be that strong.
  20. Psu1313

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    This. This is not a Miller B scenario. It's a cold front that drives thru and then you have redevelopment on the front. The 500 shows it perfectly with energy rounding the base of the trough although this is probably the most put together example. The GFS is much less consolidated (probably more realistic if we're using this winters trends as a guide.)
  21. Psu1313

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    GFS came very close to doing it as well even putting a little bit of snow down in DC and the Delmarva before scooting.
  22. Psu1313

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Ok, so we're looking more toward the end of this time period and the clipper diving in and trying to merge. Got it. So it's more the 1/2/3 storm (Groundhog's Day blizzard anyone?) vs something tied in with the storm that comes through the 28th/29th/30th.
  23. Psu1313

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Reading that clown map verbatim, that is for January 23-January 31. I continue to review the time period and I'm still a bit confused which storm is going to fit here. (I meant to post clips last night but I'm on work travel and was exhausted). Currently for this time period, the GFS-FV3 has a clipper merging with another system, the GFS has a storm prior and a storm on the 2nd, the CMC has a weak storm but looks like it's setting up a bigger storm and I can't see in between frames on the Euro so I'm not sure what it's doing with 24 hour increments. This is like whack-a-mole. So what do we know for sure? Storm one comes through over the next 2 days and brings mainly rain but some backend snow for Pittsburgh and other areas as well as some LES. Storm 2 looks week and rolls in around the 27th and it's basically a ripple in the pattern working with some cold air. That is where I'm getting confused. Storm one has a thread, storm 2 I don't believe has a thread and storm 3 I thought was the 27th-29th. Now we definitely have a storm there, it looks warmer rather than white but that one rolls into the time period of this thread. Are we looking for redevelopment potential or are we thinking it's a wave like the FV3 sort of has?I do believe there is something on the 1st/2nd/3rd that bears watching and then a potential warm up might be in the cards based on the CFS, ensembles, the MJO, and looking at Asia. Anyways, that last part is more for the LR thread than it is for this but what I'm getting at is, which storm should I be looking at here? In a pattern like this with so much energy ripping through, it makes it tough on threads due our own limitations when in reality, the weather is still going to happen.
  24. Psu1313

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    It's not a negative post. I'm just stating that this might be rolled up into another one and doesn't actually form. It's hard to say based on the evolution of the flow as to if this is an actual threat. For example, the GFS shows a clipper at 12z or are we talking about the prior storm in this thread. I'm not trying to shut this topic down but rather exclaiming that there is so much going on and the evolution on whether this is real and if so, what this will look like is a bit unknown. When I'm not at work later I'll post some slides to show you what I'm thinking.
  25. Psu1313

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I have to say the evolution of the pattern for each model is so seemingly stark that it's hard to get a handle if this is a real thing or not. If it is something, I'd bet on a quick mover based on what we've seen so far this winter. Based on current tellies, it doesn't look like much of a block is setting up though it does look like AO is going to fluctuate negative so that can be an onus for cold being around.
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