AFDAKQ a short while ago. As I mentioned the other day sleet always seems to be a factor more NW than forecasted. Glad it was at least mentioned.
FXUS61 KAKQ 071114
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
614 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018
A dry cold front will move offshore this morning with Canadian
high pressure building back into the area this afternoon through
Saturday night. A complex area of low pressure approaches from
the southwest Sunday, then moves off the Carolina coast Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EST Friday...
The dry front pushes off the coast this morning with Canadian high
pres building in from the west. Mstly sunny skies. Highs 45-50.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Friday...
1038mb Canadian high slowly builds east tonite and Sat resulting in
dry and cool wx. Winds decouple in areas away from the water tonite.
Lows in the lwr 20s-lwr 30s. The ridge axis remains along or just
west of the mts Sat. Mstly sunny to start with incrs clouds from the
south in the aftrn. Cold with highs in the low-mid 40s.
Low pressure organizes across the deep south Sat with pcpn spreading
north across the Mid Atlantic states Sat nite. 00Z/07 models cont to
struggle with just how far north pcpn gets by 12Z Sun given the
strength of the high to the north. NAM is now quicker with the isent
lift while the GFS has slowed it down by a few hrs with the ECMWF a
model compromise. Thus, will have cldy skies but dry conditions in
the grids. Will then have 20-30 PoP up to near a AVC-ASJ-ECG line
btwn 09Z-12Z. Sfc temps along with thermal profiles has p-type as
snow along and west of I95, a one to two county buffer zone of
mix pcpn, with rain along the Albemarle sound. Lows mid 20s nw to
mid 30s se. Minimal QPF with no sgnfcnt accumls expected by 12Z.
The models continue to struggle with how far north pcpn gets Sun as
the dry air from the high to the north is slow to depart. Noticed
the 12Z models come in with a farther north track with the 00Z
data farther south. NAM now most aggressive and brings a rather
substantial area of f-gen lift and QPF north across srn VA while
both the GFS/ECMWF have the highest QPF and best forcing along
and south of the VA/NC border with little if any moisture north
of RIC. Kept temps lower than guid for now with highs in the low-
mid 30s west, upr 30s-lwr 40s east.
Some swrn zones will likely reach warning criteria accumls if
mdt to lclly hvy pcpn rates occur, but the latest guid also shows a bit of a warm tongue lifting NNW Sun aftrn which would
suggest some sleet mixing in which would hold down accumls. In
addition, there appears there will be a rather sharp n-s moisture
(QPF) gradient which will become problematic as the event unfolds.
Given the uncertainity, held off on any 5th/6th period watches for
now and let later shifts fine tune accumls and issue headlines
The pcpn becomes lighter Sun night as the low pulls off the coast
and ends n-s Monday. The snow graphic this morning will indicate
expected amts thru 12Z Mon. Lows Sun nite mid 20s nw to near 40
se. Highs Mon upr 30s nw to upr 40s se.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Thursday...
Low pres departs from the lower mid-Atlantic coast Mon night to
be followed by sfc hi pres building over the region from W-E
Tue-Thu. Any lingering pcpn (possibly mixed ptype) Mon night
will likely be confined to far SE VA-coastal NE NC. Dry wx then
follows during mid week time period...chilly Tue-Wed...milder Thu.
Lows Mon night from the m20s W to the l-m30s at the coast. Highs Tue
in the l-m40s. Lows Tue night in the l20s W of I 95 to the l30s at
the immediate coast. Highs Wed 45-50F. Lows Wed night in the m-u20s
inland to the m-u30s right along the coast. Highs Thu in the u40s W
to the m50s in NE NC.