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About Ingyball

  • Birthday November 8

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  • Locale
    Columbus Ohio/Dallas Texas


  • Interests
    crazy weather
  • Perfect Day
    28 degrees with moderate snowfall

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  1. Wow it's been a year already? Time really did fly by.
  2. The winds have only been bad inside of storms so far. I'll probably start seeing more consistent storms in the next 2-3 hours however. Hopefully I don't get any training like what's been happening near Mobile.
  3. Getting dumped on here. I do have concerns with flooding now if we get caught in a training band. Looks like our new porch that just got built is holding a lot of water at the moment.
  4. There's more than one reason why a storm can trend westward, the weakness of it very likely wasn't the case, unless the upper level pattern is different now(ridge to the west, trough to the north, ridge to the east) then a weaker storm is going to be feeling the lower level steering more than the upper level steering. The lower level steering is dominated by the eastern ridge and northern trough. Where things have changed is that the 48 hours ago the GFS had the center of the storm nearly in the same position, but the surface steering in Alabama and Mississippi was more North and Northwestward. The 12z Analysis today shows a more west-north-westward wind barb, which is exactly how the storm is moving. If you look at the 500 mb flow it's dominated by the western ridge. A stronger storm would tap into that flow more and it would be sent even further west. Like I said before, it's opposite of the typical weak west/ strong east.
  5. The steering currents actually support a weaker storm further east. The trough and eastern ridge that will allow for more northern movement has more influence at the lower levels of the atmosphere so a weaker storm would tap into those. The western ridge has more influence in the upper levels so a stronger storm would be more influenced by it. It's a bit opposite from the usual convention really. Of course I haven't looked to see if the models were still forecasting those steering currents for the upcoming days. However, that doesn't mean that this storm won't track further west than predicted, but the likely reason probably won't be because it's a weak storm.
  6. The storm is also getting caught up between steering currents. Not exactly like Harvey, but a similar outcome could be possible.
  7. Ok, the GFS is going to get a big NO for me. (I'm currently living in Covington, LA with my parents, but I haven't changed my location yet lol.) Both the GFS and Euro have me getting 12-25" of rain, which would far surpass anything I've seen. The models will likely change in track some, and I really hope they do.
  8. Though the Nam isn't typically used for tropical weather forecasting, this storm will be heavily impacted on what it does on the meso-scale that the 3Km Nam may not be that bad to use during the beginning. However looking at hour 60 for the 12z run is quite different than the 12Km Nam. The 3Km is showing a 979mb hurricane(about 72kts on weathermodels.com). However the really strange part is how the hurricane looks on the 10M wind and mslp map and the simulated IR map.
  9. A weak sheared storm that stays east would be preferable to many who live in Louisiana and Texas where a lot of flooding is or already has occurred the last couple of months.
  10. It's rare, but it has happened before, seems to be once a decade where a storm comes off the U.S and forms in the Gulf.
  11. 12z Euro has me concerned here in Covington, La, will be watching this with a close eye.
  12. Seems like all season long tornadoes have been targeting towns and cities. I hope everyone in the path has made it to their basements already.
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