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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Snowball

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  1. Kitchener has had freezing rain since early afternoon. There's a good 10mm out there and it doesn't look like there will be time to melt before the snow and winds arrive. EC has updated their winter storm warning calling for power outages and broken tree limbs:
  2. The biggest issue with this storm was the snowfall rates were way overblown. Check back a page or two and you'll see it suddenly changed drastically. GFS actually handled it the best.... I'll be trusting GFS rest of the winter through. Still a mess out there
  3. For what it's worth, the best map I've seen thus far. Craig Lavine posted it from a new EC service they are piloting, I'm curious how to source it now. I figure if you're on the northern fringe of the ranges you'll get closer to the upper end of the band, locally more...
  4. I think it's off but I guess we'll only find out tomorrow. I don't see EC or TWN using it as guidance either.
  5. GFS 12z even more bearish on this storm. I'm surprised they haven't met in the middle. Im going with NAM not because it's favourable on the snow but because I seriously don't know what GFS is looking at. Even Toronto totals lowered on this run...
  6. Looks like safe bet... I'd say strong possibility of 15 with ice pellets.
  7. Models are having a hell of a time with amounts in Southern Ontario. EC went from 5-15 to 15-25 to 10-20 for Kitchener... Complicated storm that has everything. Going to be a mess with the winds.
  8. Seeing a sustained period of pellets north of Hamilton starting around noon into the evening. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens tomorrow either way it will be a mess I wonder what they will do about schools and again the commutes will be bad in the am and pm.
  9. I like the EC statement thus far this is a general 5-15 for most with locally higher North of Hamilton and around the lake. Higher terrains could see more snow too.. The mix and wind will make it interesting.
  10. This warmup isnt going to last more than a couple hours here and even then if it rains or melts it's just going to flash freeze on the back end. This is going to be nasty... Temps refuse to budge it's the fog out there, must be impossible for weather outets to stay on top of all of these factors.
  11. That is due to (thankfully) low winds expected. Travelling however...
  12. I'm fairly convinced TWN is following the NAM if you compare their maps over the last day or so not sure why but will add that NAM has not waffled in its view good or bad. It's remained fairly consistent if anything amplified the amounts. Toronto seems set to receive more ice pellets as snowbob points out and as EC has advised. I think we're starting to lock this in. It's concerning for commuters travelling the lower half of the Golden horseshoe.
  13. 00z GFS/RAP predict more 5-10. NAM is ugly and shows a more organized condensed 10-15 for many of us.
  14. I don't think they've backed down. I think the worse thing about this is the timing. Freezing rain is to start in most areas at 6AM and persist throughout the day for several hours. My area of Kitchener could see up to 12 hours of ice accretion, even longer between London-Hamilton-Niagra. The 401 corridor looks to be caught in the middle for commuters AM and PM. As I see it our saving grace could be an extended period of ice pellets which is something we've seen in the past. Hard to predict and the models don't handle this well. But easier on traction and trees/power lines.
  15. The 00z NAM is showing considerable ice accumulations into Friday. Historically this sort of thing is right down to the wire.
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