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  1. There is going to be a lot of cape building tomorrow... Could make for an interesting day😁
  2. Could definitely be some big events later this week
  3. The infamous blob is still going strong...👀👀👀. Hmmmm...
  4. The lack of severe weather lately over all the past couple of years has really been something
  5. Starting to get interesting? 🤔 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Significant severe is expected during the first few days of the medium-range period. Models are in general agreement in regards to the evolution of a strong southwestern US trough as it ejects into the middle of the country. Strong convection will likely be noted across the southern Plains during the day3 period and the degree of convective overturning may partially influence severe development later Wednesday. Substantial 500mb flow/short-wave trough will eject across OK/north TX during the afternoon and this feature is expected to induce scattered severe ahead of a progressive dryline. Ample buoyancy, strong shear, and large-scale support suggest severe supercells are possible. This feature will eject into the Midwest later day5 and scattered severe should be noted along/ahead of a cold front as it surges across IL/MO/Arklatex region, ultimately spreading into the OH/TN Valley and Mid-South. Beyond day5, greatest convective threat will focus across lower latitudes where shear/forcing may eventually lead to robust updrafts as heights lower late in the period. However, predictability is a bit too low to warrant probs beyond day5
  6. "Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large-scale pattern will become seasonally favorable for organized severe during the upcoming medium-range period. Severe thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected across a substantial portion of the CONUS during the day4-6 time frame. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced upper trough will eject across the lower CO River Valley into the southern Rockies during the day4 period...central/southern Plains day5...and Midwest day6. Southern extent of dominant surface anticyclone should stall across KS and an extensive moist warm sector is expected to eventually materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley into MO ahead of this ejecting short wave. While it seems likely that organized severe will spread from TX to the Midwest ahead of this feature, it's not entirely clear of the convective evolution each day. Day3 TX short wave will likely induce a substantial amount of precipitation that could/should disrupt northward advance of highest PW air mass to higher latitudes. Initially, most robust convection will be confined to the High Plains where steep lapse rates will contribute greatly to buoyancy. If the short wave timing is accurate, a more substantial severe event could unfold day5 across the Plains. GFS/Canadian are more aggressive with surface low development across KS than the ECMWF which is weaker with the surface low Wednesday. Mid-level speed max will eject into the Midwest Thursday along with an attendant severe threat." ..Darrow.. 05/04/2019
  7. I think this summer will be slightly cooler than normal
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