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Mike W IN ALTMAR

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Mike W IN ALTMAR last won the day on April 28

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About Mike W IN ALTMAR

  • Birthday 10/09/1982

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    Altmar NY

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  1. Another potential threat during this period will be strong to severe thunderstorms. While the various medium range ensemble packages seem to have a good handle on the large scale pattern during this period...the same cannot be said about the more detailed low level features. For example...there are fairly significant timing differences on when a cold front will drop southeast across the region. The forecast passage of this boundary ranges from Sunday night to Monday evening...with some packages not even depicting any pre frontal activity. Climatology states that summertime cold frontal passages in our region are almost always preceded by pre frontal troughs...and these features very often produce more significant convection than the cold fronts. Will include the mention of gusty winds from convection produced from an expected pre frontal trough on Sunday...but this could be delayed by as much as 24 hours.
  2. Buffalo There is very high confidence that temperatures will average well above normal during this period. This near assurance stems from strong agreement between the GEFS ensembles and operational ECMWF that depict the presence of a strong sub tropical ridge over the Desert Southwest with relatively high heights found across the remainder of the conus. H85 temperatures across the Lower Great Lakes are forecast to average 16 to 18c...which would easily support daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. Pending your guidance package or ensemble member of choice... forecast H85 temps are as high as 20c. That would suggest that parts of the region could experience readings in the lower 90s. Given the humid conditions that will be in place...this warmer scenario would raise the specter of heat advisories for the lake plains...so stay tuned. Looking further ahead at the remainder of next week (and possibly through the remainder of the month!)...temperatures are fully expected to remain above normal. There is strong consensus between the medium range ensembles that the sub tropical ridge will expand across the majority of the country with H85 temps across our forecast area averaging in the mid to upper teens. This would support a prolonged stretch of days with temperatures of least the low to mid 80s while overnight lows would largely be in the mid 60s. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
  3. A chilly 54° this morning, back up near 70° currently.. Picked up 0.0" of liquid. U think the models are bad? Try following them during a lake effect event lol 3 feet to nada just hours before an event, multiple times, just last year It's frustrating not knowing your forecast until the day of, and still usually wrong.. One of the main problems is we have to many models to analyze these days..
  4. Mount Holly HWO A storm system will impact the region on Tuesday. Storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding.
  5. I'm pretty sure that's a probability map and not a forecast... Buffalo As we reach the end of the work week and next weekend...broad upper level troughing will gradually flatten and recede northward into southern Canada...while giving way to building upper level ridging that will extend northeastward from the Deep South into the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest. This change in the pattern will pave the way for increasing amounts of warmth and humidity to eventually work northeastward and into our region during the course of the weekend... but even more so during the early part of the following week. For this specific period...this will translate into near normal highs in the mid to upper 70s on Friday rising back into the lower to mid 80s by Sunday...while surface dewpoints climb from the comfortable 50s into the moderately sticky lower half of the 60s
  6. I forget how fast temps can warm this time of year, low of 50.4°, currently 65°...
  7. Storms moving over lake Erie yesterday, posted by a member on another board, link below... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52271-upstateeastern-new-york/?page=11&tab=comments#comment-5296730
  8. Front is through, dropped 13° in less than an hour...
  9. Boy that 5mph wind we had yesterday really did a number on my tree lol U will also notice the grass is actually green unlike last year at this time..
  10. Warning issued until 3pm, watch issued till 8pm.. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jefferson County in central New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 300 PM EDT.. * At 150 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Oswego to near Lodi, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Stony Point, Pulaski, Clayton, Central Square and Weedsport. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 near exit 40. Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 51.
  11. A little more than 1.5" over the last 2 days, looks like we could be in for some more heavy rain today.. Hwo In addition, a cold front will generate fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms as it pushes across the region this afternoon and evening. A few of the storms could be strong to severe...with strong wind gusts and hail the primary severe weather threats 3k nam
  12. Current radar looking good for some showers and storms through this evening..
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