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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

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Phased Vort last won the day on February 13

Phased Vort had the most liked content!

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About Phased Vort

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    Tropical Cyclones
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    A snowy day

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  1. Gets cut off or stalled for a while. Then, heads east over the Atlantic. Beasty!
  2. 18Z GFS has snow for the Mid-Atlantic.
  3. 18Z FV3 GFS is creating a monster...
  4. Phased Vort

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    That could make some folks up there in Maine need to install plywood to the windows...
  5. Phased Vort

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    East coast view of the Nor´easter.
  6. Phased Vort

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Some images:
  7. Phased Vort

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    The 12Z ECMWF caved to the eventful FV3 coastal storm solutions. 993mb just off the Delmarva coast and 985mb southeast of the eastern tip of Long Island. Nice Nor´easter, but a warm one.
  8. 00Z EPS control and the 00Z ECMWF have intriguing solutions that do say that snowfall is possible in this time frame even for the Mid-Atlantic.
  9. Phased Vort

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    00Z ECMWF certainly has improved a lot and perhaps is giving some credit to the FV3 general idea. It seems the possible coastal storm should arise from the leftover energy near the coast of Virginia, instead of the stronger batch of energy that comes from the GOMEX. The leftover energy gets some juice as it is fed some vort energy that dives SE from the western Great lakes. That bit of vort energy may help make the leftover energy near the Virginia coast get stronger by partially or completely phasing with it and therefore stay closer to the coast and in the end turn this time frame in a eventful one. Great string of posts @MaineJay.
  10. Well, I thought the March 18th thread was going to be the last thread to discuss a snow potential that I opened. But given what I have been observing for the last 3 days using many different operational and ensemble guidance and continued decent teleconnection signals, I was dragged back to open yet another thread to discuss the possibility of snowfall for the region. General Set up and Idea Low pressure developing in and around the Tennessee Valley, may be infused by incoming strong arctic air courtesy of a north to south dropping cold front from the SE Canada (Quebec area) as high pressure builds in over the region behind the cold front. Such setup may result in a blocking mechanism, which may force the low-pressure system to track in a more slow-paced fashion to the south and around of the frontal boundary where the baroclinic zone sets up. There also the possibility that given the setup, that the storm may get cut off somewhere over the Mid-Atlantic or to the south of Long Island over the Atlantic Ocean. Guidance Output March 17th 12Z EPS Control More later. But please feel free to start the discussion. (Under construction)
  11. Looks like on a few snow showers and 1-inch accumulations in isolated spots for this time frame. So this thread did not work out. Will change it to OBS so whoever gets some snow can report it.
  12. Phased Vort

    March 21-23, 2019 | Winter Storm

    18Z FV3 is really trying to make a storm happen and affect the region. And 12Z ECMWF did show a storm closer to coast as compared to other past solutions showing a far away out to sea secenario.
  13. Some places already seeing 1 to 1.5 inch of rain and still raining hard as per RADAR.