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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

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Phased Vort last won the day on December 26 2018

Phased Vort had the most liked content!

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About Phased Vort

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    Phasing´s done! Vort´s out!

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  1. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    It´s murky for now. In about 2 days things will be much clear.
  2. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Right looks like an offshore storm. At 6 days out, there´s still about 3 days to see if the timing becomes better between the southern branch and the northern branch. If that is not resolved in a positive way for a big storm, then this time frame could be for a clipper, and may a more significant clipper for the other thread. But right now, we are trying to figure out if there will be a storm for this time frame and one for the other thread or if there will be only one storm for both time frames.
  3. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    FV3 seems to keep the storm for this thread pretty far removed to the SE tracking over southern Florida and the northern Bahamas. In the meantime, a clipper passes through the area late on the 27th and early on the 28th. And then, an attempt at a Miller B impacts the region on the 29th and 30th.
  4. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Yea, But it´s more like 6 days out. Today is the 22nd. The storm should come in if it does, around the 28th. The way it is on the UKMET on that run, yep.
  5. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Yep. Eventually, the thread owners will need to address this situation if it becomes evident the dates will be overlap.
  6. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    12Z UKMET: Northern stream still pretty far on this run.
  7. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    The storm shown by the ICON comes at the end of this thread´s time frame and goes into the Jan 30th thread time frame.xzsaq
  8. Phased Vort

    January 23-25, 2019 | Winter Storm

    12Z NAM is showing some ice for NW NJ. Does not sound like a big deal, but folks there should be careful on the roads and with weakened trees and limbs if that occurs.
  9. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    @PA road DAWG , when posting information from sources not well know or customary to the posters and lurkers in this forum, please provide the link. It´s a healthy and polite gesture to those who want to get to know the source from where the information was taken or shared. It´s a natural step to take. From sites that are used all the time like those models sites we use so much, etc we really do not need as much, as posters and lurkers know about them and where to go to to get that info. So, if you would be so kind, as we know you are, please provide the link so others can enjoy Paul Kocin´s awesome knowledge and information. Thanks.
  10. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Most models on recent runs have been keeping this possible storm out to sea. What I believe needs to change on future runs is where the cold front that swings by the region on the Jan 24-25th time frames stalls. It looks like most models have been stalling that cold front near Bermuda, which as result, sets up the baroclinic zone near Bermuda as well or just the west of it. That baroclinic zone, where the most intense temperature gradient is found, along with the stalled out cold front, acts like a train track for the storm´s low-pressure center to develop keeping in mind that stalled out fronts create areas of lower pressures, which is usually where low-pressure systems tend to develop. Hence, what needs to change in my humble opinion, is where the cold front stalls. On future runs, we need to see that cold front stall more the NW away from Bermuda, so that area of lower pressure and the baroclinic zone sets up closer to the US eastern seaboard. That way the low-pressure center or energy, if you will, tracks close enough to the coast so that moisture being lifted to create the storm´s precipitation shield, can actually be thrown into the cold air over the east coast and this way the region get an impactful storm for this time frame. Black arrow - Low pressure track Dashed pink line - Stalled out cold front Gray arrows - High pressure and low-pressure flow The black arrow curvature on both images away from the stalled front and the baroclinic zone is due to the storm becoming deeper (stronger) as it is enthused with vorticity energy from the Great Lakes region and/or the Canadian Maritimes. Another thing I have noticed is that we run the risk of either having only one storm within the Jan 27th - Feb 1st time frame. I say that because if the track for the storm for this thread tracks more offshore in case the cold front in discussion stalls farther offshore near Bermuda, the region would not be impacted much or if at all by this storm, and then possibly only the storm for Jan 30th -Feb 1st time frame would actually hit the region. OR, in the case, the timing is good and there´s a more coordinated interaction between the storm for this thread and the energy from the northern stream diving SE´ward from the western Great Lakes region, there would be some kind of phasing, and that way probably only the storm for this thread would occur. Let´s see how that cold front acts and its speed as it relates to the cyclogenesis supposed to occur over the GOMEX or Florida for this storm since I believe it to be pivotal concerning how I see the situation now.
  11. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Good one there. Those that really want snow bad along the eastern seaboard, literally the coastal plain, Delmarva, NJ and NYC metro, and Long Island, then should actually want to see models with this storm, avoid a triple phase. It´s nearly impossible, I believe for a triple-phased storm, to track just inside the benchmark. A triple phaser would flood the coastal plain air column with warmth unless there would some kind of a historic blocker or kicker to the west of the storm over the Ohio Valley to keep that bomb at bay tracking NE´ward.
  12. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    So, for this storm, too much latent hear release may be detrimental to a so desired benchmark track, as too much latent heat would speed the maturing of the storm. In other words, the storm would deepen faster and naturally seek a more NW track. An NW track without any blocking mechanism over the Great Lakes would only allow a latent heat-laden storm to track close to the coast and even over land near the coastal plain. That could be a possible track scenario for this storm if it gets too fat with latent heat and there´s nothing over the Great Lakes to keep it tracking NE along the coast.
  13. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Could we then say that the release of latent heat, creates a path guide for the storm to take? Is that an acceptable understanding? As it concerns to this storm, the direction that latent heat released from the convection associated with the JAX rule takes would indicate the possible eventual track that this storm would take. Does this need polishing @Uscg ast? I think we should test that with this storm.
  14. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    The info I have is that the upgrade got postponed to March 2019. It was supposed to occur now in January. Info from weathermodels.com . It's probably due to the government shut down. As far as this storm is concerned, I envision 3 possible tracks. Just inland some miles from the coast Near benchmark track (just inside or just outside) Out to sea (no impacts to anyone or just for extreme eastern Long Island, extreme eastern southern New England and eastern Maine). That´s if the storm does track all the way north to the Gulf of Maine. From what I see from the BSR, this may be a case where the storm does impact the Mid-Atlantic, including Delmarva, NJ, and NYC metro including Long Island, but the storm tracks eastward out to sea once it reaches southern Delmarva;
  15. Phased Vort

    January 23-25, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Yeah. That was the idea. A stalled out front. But it wants to keep moving...