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East Coast Rain Blues

Why cold and snow is out and wet a warm remains the theme in the East, join in the conversation.

Phased Vort

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Everything posted by Phased Vort

  1. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    12Z ECMWF was able to bring the storm to affect the coast, but it´s a warm hit for NJ northward into New England and eastern upstate NY. Besides that, it comes in late in this thread´s time frame and going into the Jan 30th thread time frame.
  2. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Thanks for recommending it. I won´t do it by pinning it to the top of the page because it´s very odd to do that to my own post,
  3. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    It´s murky for now. In about 2 days things will be much clear.
  4. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Right looks like an offshore storm. At 6 days out, there´s still about 3 days to see if the timing becomes better between the southern branch and the northern branch. If that is not resolved in a positive way for a big storm, then this time frame could be for a clipper, and may a more significant clipper for the other thread. But right now, we are trying to figure out if there will be a storm for this time frame and one for the other thread or if there will be only one storm for both time frames.
  5. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    FV3 seems to keep the storm for this thread pretty far removed to the SE tracking over southern Florida and the northern Bahamas. In the meantime, a clipper passes through the area late on the 27th and early on the 28th. And then, an attempt at a Miller B impacts the region on the 29th and 30th.
  6. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Yea, But it´s more like 6 days out. Today is the 22nd. The storm should come in if it does, around the 28th. The way it is on the UKMET on that run, yep.
  7. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Yep. Eventually, the thread owners will need to address this situation if it becomes evident the dates will be overlap.
  8. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    12Z UKMET: Northern stream still pretty far on this run.
  9. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    The storm shown by the ICON comes at the end of this thread´s time frame and goes into the Jan 30th thread time frame.xzsaq
  10. PREFACE Getting past the January 20th time frame and storm, there are indications that a cold air invasion is becoming more and more apparent for the eastern CONUS as we fast approach the last 10 days of January. With that in mind and considering that the southern stream over the CONUS should continue to be actively keeping the GOMEX rich moisture content available to be lifted and gathered for storm formation, I see a rather good opportunity for a storm to impact the region, which would include the Mid-Atlantic and even New England depending on how amplified the storm becomes. For a more amplified storm to come to be, we need a solid set of teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA) and the development of Greenland into North Pole blocking, or at least a Greenland block. Given the actual data available from the EPS 46 days and EPS products, the January 24-26 time frame, would benefit from a mostly solid teleconnection package and perhaps the advent of a Greenland into North Pole blocking. The blocking though, may not be totally established yet during this time frame, but by the end of January, it could be the big boss in town. Long range operational model signals do exist for a storm in this time frame, but as I usually do, I try to avoid using the operational model storm signals for possibilities that are in the 12 to 16 days in the future time frame for the thread openers, instead relying on the ensemble guidance signals or other longer range weekly or monthly models. Given that some operational models present "forecasts" or outputs for 15 to 16 days out, I use that range as my limit to consider opening a storm thread, to avoid turning the thread into a long-range pattern discussion thread. Overall Set up Continued southern stream activity with ample GOMEX moisture to be tapped and lifted along with deeper cold air presence perhaps with a high-pressure presence and CAD development. Teleconnection robust package, possible initial developing stages of Greenland blocking, aiding in a more teemed northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Track-wise, we could have one of the 3 most traditional tracks, the western/central PA cutter track, the northern Mid-Atlantic tucked to the coast track and the beloved benchmark track. Which track would be the verified one come the time frame, would be determined in good part by the depth of the cold air in place, blocking high-pressure placement, possible phasing time, if one ever comes to be, and interestingly enough, whatever influence the initial development stages of the Greenland block would have on this time frame, if any at all. Most of these mentioned can certainly be a result of how strong the teleconnection package for this time frame is. Below, an image showing the 3 possible storm tracks can be seen. Storm Track Visual Aid Before we move on the next page, on which you will be able to see the forecasted EPS North American and Northern Hemisphere setup, the EPS 46-days teleconnections and EPS precipitation output for this time frame, I would like to finish this page, with a couple of EPS control runs images and an very interesting, perhaps surprising to some, seasonal CFS MSLP output for this time frame. CFS Surface Pressure It´s very intriguing or interesting to me at least, that very robust storm would be shown on the CFS at such a time range, near the time frame that this thread discusses. It´s a neat piece of information or perhaps, let´s say evidence. Jan 9th, 2019 12Z EPS CONTROL (tucked and benchmark track hybrid) Jan 10th, 2019 00Z EPS CONTROL (western PA track hybrid) On the next page, you will see additional data related to this time frame. To start off this page, please see the Northern Hemisphere and North America set up for the time frame in discussion. January 7th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day Northern Hemisphere North America There´s no way to look at this setup and be indifferent to it. That argues for a real winter over the eastern CONUS. We can see the lower heights over northern Canada connect to the lower heights over the SE CONUS, setting up a deep negatively oriented trough over eastern North America, and the developing Greenland block. All that if were to verify, would translate to a much colder eastern United States and a much more promising storm track from the southeast to northeast CONUS with the less progressive component courtesy of the Greenland blocking. As we continue, you can see below the EPS 24-hour precipitation for the time frame in discussion. Jan 9th, 2019 12Z Jan 10th, 2019 00Z And now the EPS 46-days teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA) AO EPO There is not much to argue concerning this EPS AO/EPO combo as it relates to the time frame. Both teleconnections are in their negative state, which is primordial for the availability of a strong and more sustained cold air presence over the eastern CONUS. The -AO is around -1.5 to -1.7 while the -EPO is around -1.3 to -1.5, which is the most negative it has been in recent weeks. We like this. NAO PNA This combo, the way I interpret it, looks very promising and supportive of a storm track that could deliver the wintry goods and be more amplified, and perhaps not so quick to exit the region. The -NAO can lay a hand in allowing blocking conditions over the eastern areas of North America while the +PNA would argue for a ridge over the western US and depending on how it interacts with the -EPO aforementioned, a deeper colder trough could pass through the eastern US. Notice that the -PNA is in positive to negative trajectory during the time frame in discussion, and flips to negative sometime around January 28th. That changing magnitude could play a positive role in the flow pattern. Given the data, this time frame looks like it has more robust aspects to it to allow the region to at least have a better shot at a wintry storm that may impact areas that are snowless since November, What do you guys think? Does this one have a standing chance? Or is it another dream only reality? Later! UPDATES: Jan 11th, 2018 January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day Northern Hemisphere North America January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day AO EPO This combo has suffered a blow and is weaker now as compared to the January 7th run. The -AO continues pretty solid. However, the EPO has changed to neutral to slightly negative. Before on the 7th of January, it was decently in a negative state. NAO PNA This combo also has suffered from changes. Although the NAO continues to be negative, it is not as negative as compared to the output from the January 7th run. As for the PNA, it went from a more solid positive state to a slightly positive state, basically neutral and flat. We will see how this evolves on the next update scheduled to occur on January 14th, 2019.
  11. Phased Vort

    January 23-25, 2019 | Winter Storm

    12Z NAM is showing some ice for NW NJ. Does not sound like a big deal, but folks there should be careful on the roads and with weakened trees and limbs if that occurs.
  12. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    @PA road DAWG , when posting information from sources not well know or customary to the posters and lurkers in this forum, please provide the link. It´s a healthy and polite gesture to those who want to get to know the source from where the information was taken or shared. It´s a natural step to take. From sites that are used all the time like those models sites we use so much, etc we really do not need as much, as posters and lurkers know about them and where to go to to get that info. So, if you would be so kind, as we know you are, please provide the link so others can enjoy Paul Kocin´s awesome knowledge and information. Thanks.
  13. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Most models on recent runs have been keeping this possible storm out to sea. What I believe needs to change on future runs is where the cold front that swings by the region on the Jan 24-25th time frames stalls. It looks like most models have been stalling that cold front near Bermuda, which as result, sets up the baroclinic zone near Bermuda as well or just the west of it. That baroclinic zone, where the most intense temperature gradient is found, along with the stalled out cold front, acts like a train track for the storm´s low-pressure center to develop keeping in mind that stalled out fronts create areas of lower pressures, which is usually where low-pressure systems tend to develop. Hence, what needs to change in my humble opinion, is where the cold front stalls. On future runs, we need to see that cold front stall more the NW away from Bermuda, so that area of lower pressure and the baroclinic zone sets up closer to the US eastern seaboard. That way the low-pressure center or energy, if you will, tracks close enough to the coast so that moisture being lifted to create the storm´s precipitation shield, can actually be thrown into the cold air over the east coast and this way the region get an impactful storm for this time frame. Black arrow - Low pressure track Dashed pink line - Stalled out cold front Gray arrows - High pressure and low-pressure flow The black arrow curvature on both images away from the stalled front and the baroclinic zone is due to the storm becoming deeper (stronger) as it is enthused with vorticity energy from the Great Lakes region and/or the Canadian Maritimes. Another thing I have noticed is that we run the risk of either having only one storm within the Jan 27th - Feb 1st time frame. I say that because if the track for the storm for this thread tracks more offshore in case the cold front in discussion stalls farther offshore near Bermuda, the region would not be impacted much or if at all by this storm, and then possibly only the storm for Jan 30th -Feb 1st time frame would actually hit the region. OR, in the case, the timing is good and there´s a more coordinated interaction between the storm for this thread and the energy from the northern stream diving SE´ward from the western Great Lakes region, there would be some kind of phasing, and that way probably only the storm for this thread would occur. Let´s see how that cold front acts and its speed as it relates to the cyclogenesis supposed to occur over the GOMEX or Florida for this storm since I believe it to be pivotal concerning how I see the situation now.
  14. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Good one there. Those that really want snow bad along the eastern seaboard, literally the coastal plain, Delmarva, NJ and NYC metro, and Long Island, then should actually want to see models with this storm, avoid a triple phase. It´s nearly impossible, I believe for a triple-phased storm, to track just inside the benchmark. A triple phaser would flood the coastal plain air column with warmth unless there would some kind of a historic blocker or kicker to the west of the storm over the Ohio Valley to keep that bomb at bay tracking NE´ward.
  15. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    So, for this storm, too much latent hear release may be detrimental to a so desired benchmark track, as too much latent heat would speed the maturing of the storm. In other words, the storm would deepen faster and naturally seek a more NW track. An NW track without any blocking mechanism over the Great Lakes would only allow a latent heat-laden storm to track close to the coast and even over land near the coastal plain. That could be a possible track scenario for this storm if it gets too fat with latent heat and there´s nothing over the Great Lakes to keep it tracking NE along the coast.
  16. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Could we then say that the release of latent heat, creates a path guide for the storm to take? Is that an acceptable understanding? As it concerns to this storm, the direction that latent heat released from the convection associated with the JAX rule takes would indicate the possible eventual track that this storm would take. Does this need polishing @Uscg ast? I think we should test that with this storm.
  17. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    The info I have is that the upgrade got postponed to March 2019. It was supposed to occur now in January. Info from weathermodels.com . It's probably due to the government shut down. As far as this storm is concerned, I envision 3 possible tracks. Just inland some miles from the coast Near benchmark track (just inside or just outside) Out to sea (no impacts to anyone or just for extreme eastern Long Island, extreme eastern southern New England and eastern Maine). That´s if the storm does track all the way north to the Gulf of Maine. From what I see from the BSR, this may be a case where the storm does impact the Mid-Atlantic, including Delmarva, NJ, and NYC metro including Long Island, but the storm tracks eastward out to sea once it reaches southern Delmarva;
  18. Phased Vort

    January 23-25, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Yeah. That was the idea. A stalled out front. But it wants to keep moving...
  19. Phased Vort

    January 23-25, 2019 | Winter Storm

    It rough indeed. This one should bring in warmer conditions and someone should get dome snow.
  20. Phased Vort

    January 23-25, 2019 | Winter Storm

    18Z FV3 GFS brings some hope as well. Seems colder and more robust with the back side.
  21. Phased Vort

    January 23-25, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I guess we can salvage something for this one. The Miller A signal which appeared to be for this time frame got pushed back to the end of the month, regardless of staying offshore. It would be rewarding to see folks that did not get snow since November, get some with this one. Would certainly be gratifying after putting so much energy into thread opener. The NAM gives hope.
  22. 6:30 AM EST RTMA update: Today could be a day that the temperatures do not rise too much.
  23. Current RTMA as of 10:45Z OR 5:45 AM EST today Jan 21st. Most of CT below 0F and the tri-state areas in the mid-single digits. It´s cold out there.
  24. Phased Vort

    January 27-29, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Oh my God.... I do not think anyone should see that... Save that for 3 days out...
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