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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

Phased Vort

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Everything posted by Phased Vort

  1. March 26-28, 2019 | Spring Storm | Snowfall Possible? Well, I thought the March 18th thread was going to be the last thread to discuss a snow potential that I opened. But given what I have been observing for the last 3 days using many different operational and ensemble guidance and continued decent teleconnection signals, I was dragged back to open yet another thread to discuss the possibility of snowfall for the region. General Set up and Idea Low pressure developing in and around the Tennessee Valley, may be infused by incoming strong arctic air courtesy of a north to south dropping cold front from the SE Canada (Quebec area) as high pressure builds in over the region behind the cold front. Such setup may result in a blocking mechanism, which may force the low-pressure system to track in a more slow-paced fashion to the south and around of the frontal boundary where the baroclinic zone sets up. There also the possibility that given the setup, that the storm may get cut off somewhere over the Mid-Atlantic or to the south of Long Island over the Atlantic Ocean. Descriptive Set up Illustration Guidance Output March 17th 12Z EPS Control OUTCOME In short, if the building high pressure is very strong heavy with cold arctic air, the magnitude of the cold air would push and block the main part of the storminess, namely the storm center (the low-pressure system itself) to the southeast, which would prevent the northern Mid-Atlantic and perhaps southern New England from being directly affected by the low pressure system as an ENE sliding coastal storm or in a more amplified case a Nor´easter. In this case, the region aforementioned would most likely be affected by moisture being lifted by the cold front as it pushes southeastward and by warm air advection out ahead of the low-pressure system due to southwesterly flow. However, if the building high pressure is not as strong and heavy, and therefore the cold air magnitude is not as intense, then the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England could very well be affected by ENE an ENE sliding coastal storm or in a more amplified case a Nor´easter. In both cases though, unless the modeled arctic cold front with its attending cold air is totally misinterpreted and its forecast is very wrong, there is a pretty good possibility that this time frame features snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic and/or southern New England just as spring is saying hello.
  2. Alright. Thanks!
  3. The RADAR is showing snow over a bigger area of northern NJ than it was forecasted yesterday by the models, it seems. Not sure it´s actually snow there falling, but the RADAR return says it is.
  4. Looking nice!
  5. Satellite Imagery:
  6. Another active tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean. This one is on the western Indian Ocean on the southern hemisphere. Text discussion:
  7. Model guidance forecasts: 00Z GFS: 00Z ECMWF:
  8. Veronica is the one on the left side of the map or the northwestern side of Australia. 00Z GFS: 00Z ECMWF:
  9. Impressive cyclone Veronica threatening to hit NW Australia.
  10. Text product for tropical cyclone 21S - Veronica.
  11. Hello, poster and lurkers! Please use this thread to discuss potential Indian Ocean tropical and subtropical cyclone developments by using operational and ensemble model guidance data, atmospheric analysis, satellite and radar imagery, etc. Please use it to discuss tropical and subtropical cyclones development taking place in and around the Australian side of the Indian Ocean.
  12. Hello, poster and lurkers! Please use this thread to discuss potential Indian Ocean tropical and subtropical cyclone developments by using operational and ensemble model guidance data, atmospheric analysis, satellite and radar imagery, etc.
  13. Going to hit the sack. It´s 12:20 AM here on the southeast coast of Brazil. But before here it is the WPC recent fronts map. Look where the Low is per this data.
  14. Totally out of place as compared to the storms this past winter season. For this one, models did show on some runs, the storm actually stalling and then resuming its trajectory out into the Atlantic. This does not look like a stall per say, but it´s indeed a storm tracking with its brakes on.
  15. Seems to be the final piece that completes the masterpiece.
  16. Here is the answer. Watch the loop, You will notice a huge band swiping through from Northern NY state all the way south through Long Island and even Cape Cod. That is supposedly snow.
  17. Yea. May very well be the case. Going by your possible secondary low development OBS and theory, we could indeed be dealing with a different beast altogether in 24 hours, given the considerable slow down it has since presented.
  18. 00Z NAM is insane with this storm from around hour 24/25 on when the storm seems to be fully phased. That creates a mega secondary deformation band that wraps around with fury as it sweeps southeastward all the way through Long Island, all of southern New England and even Cape Cod.
  19. Slower bodes well for more phasing and hence a colder solution as long as it does not force the center to track further inland. Got my vote!
  20. It seems so. The 00Z NAM is now showing the deformation band moving over northern and central areas of SE NY, It´s the farthest south I have seen so far, and it's not the wrap around snows. That deformation band should move to the SE (shown by the red arrows pointing to the southeast) as the canopy shield pivots with the low-pressure rotation while it tracks to the NE (shown by the red arrows pointing to the NE) as the low pressure also tracks to the northeast. Pretty intriguing Nor´easter we are seeing develop with a possible farther SE snowfall starting to be hinted at.
  21. It´s fascinating that up until earlier today in the morning, there was not much snow modeled to hit the NE PA and extreme NW NJ area. As the day went on and new short-range models come in, there´s more than enough snow forecasted to fall to warrant a winter storm warning especially over NE PA, where 6 to 12 inches now seems possible. Another area that has been getting more love today is over western CT and perhaps the area there just on and over the border with SE NY. Those areas now are shown to get some snowfall. It makes me conclude that the storm may be colder and more SE and strong enough to cool the column more, and of course, there´s always the higher terrain factor as well.
  22. Some satellite data: It seems that some spin is trying to get going. Mid level Water Vapor IR: Lower Level Water Vapor IR: Longwave IR: