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Phased Vort

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Everything posted by Phased Vort

  1. 9:10 AM Partly sunny - 66F Real Feel 67F Dew point 64F Wind NW at 7 kpm Pressure 1028mb
  2. Gosh.... I had to recommend this awesome post. I could no help myself.
  3. That's what we call rain. Another soggy spring to say the least.
  4. Finally! Thanks @StretchCT. Now we start learning about the FV3 officially.
  5. This is a piece of my post that started this thread. And yea, it's a real possibility, because the NW path that 91L is taking is very slow in nature, and that allows the trof traveling through the SW US, will push the ridge over eastern GOMEX and western Caribbean farther to the east and cause the high pressure flow to direct 91L to track more NNW and maybe even N towards the Texas coast.
  6. It seems we have yet another invest as per NHC ftp server. This one comes on the first day of the 2019 hurricane season. If this one can avoid land as much as possible, we could get the second named cyclone of the season. Also, please consider the possibility of this one tracking farther north over the NW GOMEX, either close to the coast over water, or after going inland and going back over water. Please, let us hear your thoughts and ideas.
  7. Folks, please observe the SW GOMEX for imminent tropical development. Will open an invest thread as soon as possible; invest 91L.
  8. In general is normal, although it´s a little bit above average. Next week the temperatures are progged to be cooler and hence more on the normal spectrum here in SE BR. Southern areas of the country are much cooler as compared to the area I am.
  9. Yea, I agree. The disparity during other periods of the year is rather brutal and huge.
  10. It´s been a while now. I´m in Macaé in the state of Rio de Janeiro, which is about 3 hours away from the state capital city Rio de Janeiro. If I find any of those Catharina ones, I will let you know. Starting to feel more like fall over now. Little by little, the weather is cooling to the winter standards of temperatures ranging from 68F to 75F for highs and lows in the 55F to 65F.
  11. Sunny, 90F, HEAT INDEX 101F, UV Index Moderate, Wind SW @ 9 KPH, gusts 9 KPH, dew point 75F, humidity 62%, pressure 1013 mb.
  12. I guess my local OBS do not serve any value in this thread, correct !? Fall season, 85F - heat index 96F, humidity 65%, wind 2 kph out of the SSE, pressure 1011 mb, dew point at 72F, UV index Moderate. Sunny.
  13. Yea. It was part of a big low-pressure gyre over central America and surrounding parts of the Pacific waters and Caribbean and GOMEX waters. Usually, these big gyres do spin-off tropical cyclones, but this one was too centered on the land masses of Central America, which greatly impeded any kind of more mature development.
  14. Both GFS versions show a rather active time ahead from next week through early June in the Caribbean and even possibly over the GOMEX. With the MJO traversing through favorable regions 1 and 8, the possible activity may end up becoming real tropical cyclones.
  15. Should be a nice lab for all of us! Each season has its unique characteristics and surprises. Welcome to the ride!
  16. Hello Andrea! Welcome! NHC should display Andrea on its site when the next update comes.
  17. It looks like Andrea is almost born officially. Pressure: 1006mb Flight level wind: 49.5 mph Surface wind: 41.4 mph Invest 90L RECON Mission 1 Virtex message:
  18. RECON is en route to invest area. There is a good chance that by tonight the first tropical or subtropical cyclone will be born.
  19. NHC activated the first invest of 2019 in the tropical Atlantic ocean. This one should be short lived, and if it ever manages to get a name it would be an impressive achievement; Andrea. Satellite imagery:
  20. 5-day outlook nows gives this little critter a 40% chance of development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.
  21. May be able to get an invest going and maybe a sub or tropical depression. A weak sub or tropical storm would be a major achievement. 12Z ECMWF:
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